Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite MLB picks for Friday, September 20.
MLB Predictions Friday, Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today, September 20
Kenny Ducey's Twins vs Red Sox Over/Under Prediction
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 9 -110o / -110u | -118 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -164 | 9 -110o / -110u | +100 |
RHP David Festa (MIN) vs RHP Richard Fitts (BOS)
David Festa has been all over the place in his rookie year, but it's become very apparent that the highly touted prospect is attempting to make his mark as a dominant strikeout arm at this level.
Festa now sits in the upper third of all pitchers in whiff and chase rates, helping him to an incredibly impressive 28.1% strikeout rate for an experienced arm. As he's aimed to sit hitters down on strikes, walks have naturally become an issue — he's issued three free passes in each of his last two outings.
The right-hander is in for a treat on Friday as he faces a Red Sox team that ranks third worst in strikeouts, next to a poor 7.8% walk rate — a profile that's grown even more extreme in the last two weeks as they've punched out a stunning 28.3% of the time to just a 6.9% clip in bases on balls.
Sure, Boston is still hitting for power and could certainly put the hurt on Festa as a result, but these are incredibly important categories to focus in on and should tell the story of this game. It's been a tumultuous four months for the Twins' hurler, but his talent is evident and the matchup is right.
On the flip side, Richard Fitts is a player I'm interested in after a strong first two outings in the big leagues. He showed some real promise early in the season down on the farm, and prior to his promotion this month he had worked well under a 3.00 ERA from July 27th on.
Fitts possessed a good mix of ground balls and control in the minor leagues, and while his strikeout numbers took an expected dive with the change in levels, he's looked incredibly competent in the early going and draws a slumping Twins offense ranked 23rd in wRC+ over the last two weeks.
I'm excited to back both arms here in what should be a fun watch and a low-scoring affair with playoff implications.
Bets: Under 9 (-110; FanDuel) | Play to Under 8.5 (+100)
Ducey's Phillies vs Mets Moneyline Prediction
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 7.5 -102o / -118u | -108 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 7.5 -102o / -118u | -112 |
LHP Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) vs LHP David Peterson (NYM)
Surely, one day, David Peterson will get what he deserves. He's continued to amaze, pitching around a boisterous .267 Expected Batting Average (xBA) and bad 9.2% walk rate to a 2.85 ERA, but eventually he's going to stop stranding so many runners on base.
You simply can't allow this many runners on base at the major-league level and get away with it, and while he had a good showing against the Phillies in his most recent outing, I think you'd have to be a fool to believe that will happen again.
Philly continues to do damage on contact — though it has been held back by a 24.3% strikeout rate over the last two weeks — but at .255 with a .172 Isolated Power (ISO) during that time, it should be well positioned to knock Peterson around in what's a huge game for both sides. The Phillies rank second in wRC+ against lefties this season and sit atop baseball with a .278 xBA in that split since the start of August.
The Mets have a lower .250 xBA to southpaws during that time, relying on power with a .447 xSLG, and will have to find a way to get to the tantalizing Cristopher Sanchez in this one.
Sanchez, who has a 1.35 ERA in September, took the ball against the Mets in his last turn and spun seven innings of one-run ball with seven punchouts. He's owned a brilliant .372 xSLG this season and has allowed just one homer in September, leading me to believe this one will be tough to pull back should Peterson stumble here.
This price seems to be a gift to me, even on the road.
Bets: Phillies ML (-108; DraftKings) | Play to -120
Ducey's Angels vs Astros Spread Pick
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -102 | 8 -118o / -102u | +215 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -118 | 8 -118o / -102u | -265 |
LHP Tyler Anderson (LAA) vs RHP Justin Verlander (HOU)
Finally, we get to take a very September Baseball bet here in Houston on Friday when the Angels look to play spoiler against an Astros team that continues to push for the AL West crown.
Houston may sit seventh in wRC+ to lefties this year, but since the start of August, it has fallen a bit with a .243 xBA in the split. It has looked less than its best of late, too, failing to capitalize on some good matchups with Padres pitching, and now will go to work against one of the most overlooked arms in the AL in Tyler Anderson.
The veteran has gone about his business this year with a 3.60 ERA, struggling only with walks as he pitches effectively to fly balls. This Astros team that loves to swing the bat should play right into his hands as he induces outs all night long, and with Houston walking just 7.3% of the time over the past two weeks and sitting 27th in walk rate for the season, he should be able to breathe a sigh of relief here as he avoids long at-bats and three-ball counts.
I'm not seeing what I need to see from the Astros right now, and that goes doubly for Justin Verlander. The future Hall of Famer was effective — but uninspiring — in his last go around against the Angels as he allowed six batters to reach over five innings of two-run ball. He walked two batters to bring his total to seven free passes in 12 2/3 innings this month.
The Angels may be striking out a lot right now — doing so 26% of the time over the last 14 days — but Verlander has been severely lacking in that department with eight punchouts across his last four outings. The lone highlight for this team has been its ability to take walks at a 9.5% clip, so against a pitcher who's struggled to limit walks and strike batters out, I think the conditions here are rather friendly for the road team.
I'm expecting another good showing from Angels pitching, which held Houston to three runs on Thursday, and I'm not ready to say things will be clean for a struggling Verlander despite what appears to be an easy matchup on the surface.
Bets: Angels +1.5 (-102; DraftKings) | Play to -115
Ducey's MLB Picks and Predictions for Friday, September 20
- Twins-Red Sox Under 9 (-110; FanDuel) | Play to Under 8.5 (+100)
- Phillies Moneyline (-108; DraftKings) | Play to -120
- Angels Run Line +1.5 (-102; DraftKings) | Play to -115
