Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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Here are my MLB predictions for Friday, September 6.
MLB Predictions Friday, Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today, September 6
MLB Yankees vs Cubs Expert Picks
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 7 -115o / -105u | -150 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 7 -115o / -105u | +125 |
Luis Gil vs. Jordan Wicks
The first of three lines we'll play on Friday is in the first game of the day between the Yankees and Cubs at Wrigley Field. While both offenses have shown plenty of life in the last few weeks, conditions should be favorable for at least one arm.
For the Yankees, this is a familiar spot. They sit atop baseball with a gaudy 124 wRC+ against right-handers, leading the next-best team by a wide margin, but against lefties their 106 wRC+ ranks just 13th in baseball. They're just 15th in Expected Batting Average to Southpaws, too, and Jordan Wicks should be more than up for the challenge here.
We haven't seen a ton of Wicks this year due to injury, but he's once again looked the part of a competent arm. He's done well to limit walks at the big-league level, and while the fly balls have been more populous with the strikeouts coming up this year, it hasn't hurt him all that much on account of his .247 xBA and low .388 Expected Slugging.
If you can limit walks against the ever-patient Yankees, good things can happen. That's true in this case, given that fly-ball pitchers work very well at Wrigley.
Speaking of, the Yankees will be throwing an extreme fly-baller of their own in young Luis Gil. After a tough few outings earlier in the summer, he's steadied himself and continues to rack up strikeouts like few others in the AL at 27.5% though his walk rate remains awful at 12.6%.
Chicago's been walking more often lately at a beefy 10.5% clip while its strikeout rate has come down to 19%. While more contact could simply mean more flyouts in the Windy City, I do think walks could pose a real threat to Gil as he looks to navigate a red-hot offense that has suddenly entered the wild-card race with a few weeks to go.
I like the Cubs to come away with a big win here to push closer to a playoff berth.
Bet: Cubs Moneyline (+125) | Play to +112 via DraftKings
Nationals vs Pirates Expert Pick: Bet On This Promising Young Arm
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +168 | 8.5 102o / -124u | +102 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 8.5 102o / -124u | -120 |
DJ Herz vs. Luis Ortiz
It seems every time I'm assigned this column that DJ Herz is scheduled to start, and that's perfectly fine with me. The lefty is one of my favorite young arms in baseball and has continued to cook as the months have gone on with just some slight hiccups with home runs and walks.
Enter the Pirates, who have punched out in over 24% of plate appearances this year and should play right into the hands of a strikeout artist in Herz. They own a low .133 Isolated Power in the last two weeks and have been centered around occasional contact hitting. Herz carries a very low .216 xBA into this one, and he shouldn't have to worry about walking too many against a team that's drawn a free pass under 8% of the time in the last 14 days.
Luis Ortiz is another young arm I see plenty of promise in, and he'll face the worst version of an already-depleted Nationals team that we've seen in the last month and a half. CJ Abrams and James Wood are mired in slumps, Alex Call has been lost for the season and they've had to deal with that aforementioned lack of depth after trading away Jesse Winker and Lane Thomas at the trade deadline.
Ortiz has been rock steady over the last two starts, going 12 scoreless with just five hits and four walks against him. Washington shouldn't earn many bases on balls here with a walk rate that's just 7.1% in the last two weeks of play and Ortiz should continue to earn flyouts as he's done very frequently this year in the 26th-ranked park for home runs.
Both arms are looking good and they'll be greeted by two offenses down on their luck at the moment. Play the under.
Bet: Under 8 (-105) | Play to -120 via BetMGM
Phillies vs Marlins Expert Pick
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -134 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -240 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +112 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +198 |
Zack Wheeler vs. Edward Cabrera
The name of the game for Edward Cabrera is plate discipline. As a budding strikeout artist, he's struggled for control and has now walked 12.3% of the batters he's faced this season to a positive 25.3% strikeout rate.
Yes, the sample is small due to injury, but we've seen Cabrera do this for many years now. We know who he is — and fortunately for him, he's perfectly suited to deal with the Phillies on Friday.
Philadelphia has caught fire at the plate with a 123 wRC+ in the last two weeks to rank third in baseball, but they continue to lack patience with a 7.8% walk rate and poor 23.4% strikeout rate. This has been a common theme for the Phillies this year, but it's only become more glaring in the last few weeks as their power-heavy approach has shown the downsides of such an offense.
Cabrera should have a fair chance to quiet the Phillies, and with that, I think this one will turn into a pitcher's duel.
Zack Wheeler has been unstoppable all year, sitting just outside the top 10% of all pitchers in xERA and xBA, and with a heavy strikeout approach should make minced meat of a Marlins team that has punched out in 23.1% of plate appearances this year and owns a meek .132 Isolated Power.
Things have improved ever-so-slightly for the Marlins in recent weeks, but it's important to remember they've gone to battle with the Rockies' pitching staff and injured Giants and Cubs rotations. I don't think there's much worth reading into with Miami's recent play, I do not expect them to get much done offensively with how hot Wheeler is running, coming off a month where he pitched to a 1.62 ERA in six outings.
Bet: Under 7.5 (-108) | Play to -120 via BetRivers
MLB Predictions for Friday, September 6
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- Yankees vs Cubs: Cubs Moneyline (+125 | Play to +112)
- Nationals vs Pirates: Under 8 (-105 | Play to -120)
- Phillies vs Marlins: Under 7.5 (-112 | Play to -120)
