Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Monday, August 26.
MLB Predictions Sunday, Expert Picks, Odds, and Preview for Today, August 26
Yankees vs. Nationals
Nestor Cortes Jr. (NYY) vs. Mitchell Parker (WSH)
From the 2021-2023 seasons, Nationals Park in Washington, D.C., had a 106 Park Factor, representing a run-scoring environment six percent higher than the MLB average.
On Monday – with 86-degree temperatures at first pitch and winds blowing out to right field at 4-5 mph, we'll adjust the park's scoring environment to 110 – 10% above the MLB average – increasing my projection to 9.62, compared to 9.26 on a weather-neutral day.
I don't mind either starting pitcher. Nestor Cortes (3.59 xERA, 17.8% K-BB%, 101 Pitching+, 3.87 botERA) has posted consecutive starts with seven shutout innings, and Mitchell Parker (4.40 xERA, 14% K-BB%, 98 Pitching+, 4.27 botERA) has three quality starts in his past four appearances.
Moreover, the Yankees are in their lesser split (1st vs. righties, 13th vs. lefties) – although they have been better against southpaws (113 vs. 101 WRC+) in the second half (2nd vs. righties, 9th vs. lefties).
However, both bullpens are below average, particularly since the All-Star break (16h and 26th in xFIP, 21st and 28th in K-BB%). The Yankees also used nine relief pitchers in their past two games – they'd prefer length from Cortes on Monday.
Bets: Over 9 (-112 or better)
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox
Jose Berrios (TOR) vs. Nick Pivetta (BOS)
Before Monday night's matchup, the Red Sox and Blue Jays will conclude a June 26th contest with a fun bit of baseball history on Monday afternoon.
In an oddity unique to baseball, Danny Jansen – who was hitting for Toronto when the game was suspended in June – now plays for the Red Sox and will serve as Boston's backstop on Monday, becoming the first player in MLB history to play on both sides of the same game. Additionally, Jansen is (and will likely remain) the only player to catch the plate appearance he initiated.
Unfortunately, Jansen only had a 0-1 count before the suspension (and not two strikes), or this oddity could have gone further – allowing Jansen to strike out while simultaneously catching officially; however, credit for the result will pass to the eventual pinch hitter.
Both bullpens are relatively well-rested heading into Monday, but the teams need to play at least eight innings in Game 1 – leaving bullpen usage and availability up in the air for the evening.
In cool temperatures (71 degrees at first pitch), I projected 8.57 runs in this contest and helped drive the under down from 9.5 to 9.
While Jose Berrios continues to struggle on the road (2.81 ERA, 8 HR allowed at home in 83 1/3 IP; 4.91 ERA, 19 HR allowed on the road in 73 1/3 IP), as he has throughout his career (career 3.84 xFIP at home and 4.54 on the road) both his K-BB% and xFIP are virtually identical at home and on the road this season (19.1% K-BB% and 4.33 xFIP at home; 19% and 4.54 on the road).
Moreover, Berrios has been on a solid run of late—with four quality starts in his past five outings (18.6% K-BB%, 3.6 xFIP)—and his pitch modeling metrics (94 Stuff+, 103 Pitching+, 3.51 botERA) represent his best form of 2024 (10.4% K-BB%, 4.60 xFIP before July 28th).
Nick Pivetta remains the highest Stuff+ rating among qualified pitchers (135), but his xERA has hovered around four for the past two seasons (3.94 and 3.98, respectively).
Depending on afternoon bullpen usage, I may adjust my price target.
Bets: Under 9.5 (9, -105 or better)
Braves vs. Twins
Max Fried (ATL) vs. Bailey Ober (MIN)
Temperatures are warm in Minneapolis on Monday – 91 degrees with light wind blowing in.
Typically, Target Field has a league-average run-scoring environment (100 Park Factor from 2021-2023). Still, given the warm temperatures, it should play closer to 5% above the MLB average, benefitting both offenses and increasing my projected total from 8.03 to 8.53.
From 2020 to 2023, Max Fried posted three or more walks just ten times across 83 outings, but he's done that 11 times in his 22 starts this year and is dealing with injury or fatigue as he heads into free agency this winter.
Fried's K-BB% is down by nearly a third (from 19.9% to 13.7%) year over year, and his xERA has climbed to 3.73—his highest mark since 2019 (2.73 in 2023, 2.85 in 2022, 3.47 in 2021, 2.88 in 2020, 3.86 in 2019).
Bailey Ober (3.34 xERA, 20.1% K-BB%, 102 Pitching+) allows a ton of flyballs (49% career) and has a homer issue (career 1.35 HR/9) which the Braves (11th in flyball rate) can exploit on a hot day.
Bets: Over 7.5 (8, -110 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, August 26
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- Atlanta Braves / Minnesota Twins, Over 7.5 (-115, 0.5u) at ESPNBet (bet to 8, -110)
- Chicago Cubs / Pittsburgh Pirates, Over 8 (-115, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM (flat to -119 or 8.5, -101)
- Chicago White Sox F5 (+128, 0.5u at FanDuel (bet to +108)
- Colorado Rockies (-108, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -115)
- Cleveland Guardians, Game 1 (+113, 0.5u; bet to +104)
- Cleveland Guardians, Game 2 (-105, 0.5u) at ESPNBet (bet to -113)
- Cleveland Guardians / Kansas City Royals, Game 2 Over 8.5 (+100, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -108)
- Miami Marlins / Colorado Rockies, Over 10.5 (-105, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -112)
- New York Yankees / Washington Nationals, Over 9 (+100, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -112)
- San Diego Padres / St. Louis Cardinals, Under 9 (+100, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to -112)
- Toronto Blue Jays / Boston Red Sox, Under 8.5 (-118, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to 9, -105)
