MLB Expert Predictions Monday | Odds, Previews Today
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Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Monday, July 22.
MLB Expert Predictions Monday | Odds, Previews Today
Rays vs. Yankees
Zack Littell (TBR) vs. Carlos Rodon (NYY)
The Yankees are 10-20 in their past 30 games (with a -34 run differential) and will look to avoid another home series loss to the Rays on Monday afternoon behind Carlos Rodon (4.48 xERA, 17.2% K-BB%, 123 Stuff+, 97 Location+, 103 Pitching+).
Projection systems expect Rodon to pitch closer to his career 3.84 FIP (projected range of 3.85 to 4.04) over the remainder of the season, compared to his subpar year-to-date results.
The southpaw owns career-best Stuff+ ratings in 2024 (123, vs. 111 in 2023, 118 in 2022, 115 in 2021) while battling shaky command (97 Location+, 97 in 2023, 103 in 2022, 102 in 2021) and posting enigmatic results after missing time with forearm and back injuries in 2023.
He was hit hard in a road loss against the Rays on July 9 (4 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 1 HR, 2 BB, 5 K). Still, Rodon flashed a season-high velocity level (97.1 mph) — alongside a 129 Stuff+ figure — in his most recent start against the Orioles, his highest average fastball velocity since April 2022.
After the velocity spike — with eight days off over the all-star break since that outing – Rodon could feel the best he has physically in more than two years.
I rate Rodon as a better pitcher than Zack Littell (4.24 xERA, 17.1% K-BB%, 82 Stuff+, 104 Location+, 99 Pitching+). I also give the Yankees a slight bullpen advantage.
The Rays also had to dig deep into their bullpen to secure a win on Sunday. They used six relievers, including key relievers Jason Adam and Pete Fairbanks, for a combined 48 pitches and Garrett Cleavinger for the second time in three days.
Tampa Bay's offense has been red-hot of late (sixth in wRC+ over the past thirty days), especially against lefties (second over the same span). However, I still prefer the Yankees' position player group offensively (projected 120 wRC+ vs. righties vs. 109 against lefties for Tampa) and defensively.
Bets: Yankees F5 Moneyline (-172 or better) | Yankees Full-Game Moneyline (-165 or better)
Red Sox vs. Rockies
Tanner Houck (BOS) vs. Austin Gomber (COL)
Tanner Houck (2.54 ERA, 3.71 xFIP, 18% K-BB%, 109 Stuff+, 103 Location+, 107 Pitching+) has had a breakout season for the Red Sox while swapping his four-seamer and cutter in exchange for more splitters (11.4% usage in 2023; 25.5% in 2024) and sliders.
However, Houck has already surpassed his previous career-high in innings (117 vs. 106 last season) and could exhibit arm-fatigue-related aggression in the second half.
The signs of slippage are starting to pop up; Houck has shown career-best command this season but permitted a season-high eight runs (seven earned) on June 29th against the Padres, a season-high-four walks on July 5 to the Yankees (his only start of the season with more walks than strikeouts), and three walks in his most recent outing (on July 11) before giving up three hits including a three-run bomb to Ohtani in the All-Star game.
TEXAS SIZED HOME RUN BY SHOHEI OHTANI 🤠
📺: #AllStarGame on FOX pic.twitter.com/VzmoDto3kv
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) July 17, 2024
Now, Houck heads to Coors Field, where he may struggle to command his best pitch (42.3% usage rate on his slider). Kenley Jansen is likely unavailable after working on consecutive days for the bullpen as the Red Sox struggled to hold leads against the Dodgers, losing on Friday and Saturday.
Austin Gomber (4.79 xERA, 10.1% K-BB%, 79 Stuff+, 103 Location+, 97 Pitching+) doesn't inspire a ton of confidence, but Boston's offense has struggled against southpaws this season (95 wRC+, 20th) compared to right-handed pitching (109 wRC+, ninth).
That gap has only grown; over the past thirty days, Boston's offense ranks 29th against lefties (72 wRC+) compared to first against righties (131 wRC+).
I give the Red Sox the edge everywhere except home field; Houck projects about a run and a quarter better (on a season-long ERA) than Gomber. Their bullpen has a near full-run advantage, and I still give them a league-average offense against lefties, compared to a 77 wRC+ for the Rockies against the right-handed Houck.
That said, the Rockies are the clear value side based on the pricing (projected -134 or 57.3% implied vs. +160 listed or 38.5% implied), and I like the Over 10 or 10.5 compared to a projected total of 10.92.
Bets: Rockies Full-Game Moneyline (+145 or better) | Over 10 (10.5, -106 or better)
Astros vs. Athletics
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) vs. Hogan Harris (OAK)
Oakland is another of baseball's hottest offenses, ranking third (123 wRC+) in MLB over the past thirty days (11th vs. righties, 1st vs. lefties). The Astros rank 9th (111 wrC+) over the same span (16th vs. righties, 10th vs. lefties).
Spencer Arrighetti (4.18 xERA, 11.6% K-BB%, 91 Stuff+, 99 Location+, 98 Pitching+) and Hogan Harris (5.79 xERA, 5.8% K-bB%, 86 Stuff+, 96 Location+, 94 Pitching) each rate as below-average starting pitchers by virtually every data point.
Harris has a solid changeup (118 Stuff+) and could develop into a reliever, but he's a replacement-level starting pitcher. Arrighetti has quite a bit higher upside, with a plus sweeper (121 Stuff+) and curveball (115) alongside an average changeup (100).
Still, the A's can pounce on his lousy fastball (83 Stuff+, .283 xBA, .482 xSLG) and cutter (62 Stuff+, .231 xBA, .389 xSLG).
I projected this total at 8.56 runs in favorable hitting conditions (72 degrees at first pitch, 5-7 winds blowing out, high barometric pressure).
Bets: Over 8 (-110 or better)
Giants vs. Dodgers
Blake Snell (SFG) vs. River Ryan (LAD)
Dodgers' No. 4 overall prospect River Ryan will make his major league debut on Monday. The 25-year-old excelled across five starts in Triple-A (2.76 ERA, 19.7% K-BB%) after missing time in April and May with shoulder fatigue.
Ryan posted an eye-popping 122 Stuff+, 106 Location+, and 111 Pitching+ rating across his first four Triple-A appearances, deploying a plus fastball (touches 99 mph) that he can locate above the hands, two plus breaking balls (hard slider and swing and miss curve), and a developing changeup.
Projection systems are far more conservative about his immediate impact, forecasting Ryan for an FIP range of 4.41 to 4.91. I'm using a number closer to four, and I still show value on the Giants in this matchup.
Blake Snell has been incredibly unlucky this season (6.31 ERA, 3.58 xERA, 3.99 xFIP) with a .319 BABIP (.290 career) and a career-worst 56% strand rate (77.3% career, previous low of 70.9%).
After an IL trip and a minor league rehab stint, Snell looks back in form in his recent outings (121 Stuff+, 101 Location+ vs. 113 and 96 before the IL stint and 107 and 95 in 2023). His velocity levels (95.8 and 95.9 mph) averaged a season-high in those starts.
Snell has always been a streaky pitcher, and it's not hard to back him – amid a scoreless innings streak, throwing harder and with better command than he has all year after an IL stint to get right.
I projected the total to be 8.1, and I would need -105 or better for the Under 8.5.
Bets: Giants Full-Game Moneyline (+116 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Monday, July 22
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- Boston Red Sox / Colorado Rockies, Over 10 (-120, 0.5u) at bet365 (flat to 10.5, -106)
- Cincinnati Reds F5 (+130, 0.25u; small to +118)
- Cincinnati Reds / Atlanta Braves, Over 8 (+100, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -102)
- Colorado Rockies (+163, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +145)
- Houston Astros F5 (-135, 0.25u; small to -140)
- Houston Astros / Oakland Athletics, Over 8 (-110 or better, 0.5u)
- Los Angeles Angels / Seattle Mariners, Over 7 (-125, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (flat to 7.5, -105)
- Milwaukee Brewers / Chicago Cubs, Under 8.5 (-120, Risk 0.5u) at BallyBet (flat to -122 or 8, -104)
- New York Mets / Miami Marlins, Under 8.5 (-105, 0.5u) at Caesars (flat to -108)
- New York Yankees F5 (-155, 0.25u) at BetMGM (small to -172)
- New York Yankees (-155, 0.25u) at WynnBet (bet to -165)
- Philadelphia Phillies / Minnesota Twins, Over 8 (-115, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars (flat to -119 or 8.5, -101)
- San Francisco Giants (+133, 0.5u) at BetRivers (bet to +118)
- Seattle Mariners F5 (-148, 0.25u, small to -150)
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