Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and expert picks and previews for the LCS games on Monday, October 14.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Odds & LCS Previews for Monday
MLB Futures Update and Championship Series Prices
- ALCS Projections
- NLCS Projections
- World Series Projections:
- Dodgers: 39.6% (+152)
- Yankees: 32.3% (+210)
- Guardians: 17.7% (+464)
- Mets: 10.4% (+860)
I don't project value compared to the updated NLCS price or NL Pennant odds; I'd need at least +300 to back the Mets to win their series from a one-game deficit against the Dodgers. And the odds for the NLCS series props and spreads have aligned with my projections.
Otherwise, my analysis is the same as it was for Sunday — I project slight value on Cleveland to win both the ALCS and the World Series.
I projected the Guardians as +154 series underdogs (39.3% implied) against the Yankees and would bet their ALCS price at +161 (38.3% implied) or better. While there's a +172 available at FanDuel, I already have a Yankees AL Pennant ticket (+150) from before the ALDS.
You could use our hedge calculator to lock in a profit for the AL Pennant or take a piece off that Yankees position. I'd rather skip ahead and sprinkle the Guardians to win the World Series (at +500 or better). Either the Yankees AL ticket cashes (and we lose the small Guardians wager), or we're live to the Guardians World Series ticket.
Additionally, I project the slightest edge on Cleveland to win the ALCS 4-1 (projected +850, listed +900). However, the discrepancy isn't substantial enough to make it actionable.
Mets vs Dodgers Game 2
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 8 -120o / 100u | +122 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8 -120o / 100u | -145 |
LHP Sean Manaea (NYM) vs. Bullpen Game (LAD)
As I mentioned on Saturday, I thought the Mets' most significant advantage in this series would occur in Games 2 and 6 — assuming Sean Manaea (3.75 xERA, 16.4% K-BB%, 96 Pitching+, 4.45 botERA) faced Walker Buehler (4.68 xERA, 10.5% K-BB%, 100 Pitching+, 3.96 botERA).
However, with the Dodgers bullpen getting a relative rest on Sunday behind Jack Flaherty, they'll throw a bullpen Game on Monday and potentially save Buehler for later in the series.
The Dodgers' Bullpen game.
All 8 Pitchers in their combined shutout. pic.twitter.com/HSooZxj6Z8
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 10, 2024
Buehler looked rough against the Padres (5 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 1 BB, 0 K) after struggling in 16 regular-season starts since his return from Tommy John surgery (he didn't face the Mets). He has shown decreased command (8.1% walk rate, 101 Location+), typical following a UCL injury (6.2% BB% and 104 Location+ in 2021).
But his velocity (95 mph in 2024, 95.2 in 2023, 94.3 in 2021, 96.8 in 2020, 96.5 in 2019) and Stuff (94 Stuff+ in 2024, 96 in 2023, 117 in 2022, 138 in 2020) also remain substantially down from his career peak. Often, those come back immediately or not at all.
Conversely, Manaea has looked like the Mets' best pitcher in consecutive playoff starts (combined 12 IP, 9 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 10 K) following an impressive second half (3.75 xERA, 19.2% K-BB%; 4.29 and 14% first half) after changing his delivery and altering his pitch mix near the end of July.
Manaea started using a cross-body delivery — similar to Chris Sale — and has found his arm slot in the bullpen by warming up before games one mound over from his catcher:
Sean Manaea creating Angles in the Bullpen.
They should let him pitch like this. 🤣 pic.twitter.com/3SivL4ekoG
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 11, 2024
Concerning the pitch mix, Manaea started using his sinker more aggressively (38.1% before late July, 55.4% since) at the expense of his cutter (from 11% to 1%) — but the arm slot also turned his slider into a sweeper with even more depth.
Manaea has permitted an .859 OPS to current Dodgers hitters in more than 150 plate appearances — and faced them in April. Still, they've never seen this sidewinding, fully optimized version of Manaea, who will hope to counteract the Dodgers' potent lefty bats (2.83 xFIP vs. lefties, 4.35 vs. righties in 2024).
However, the Mets used Reed Garrett, Jose Butto and their lefties — David Peterson and Danny Young — for multi-inning stints in a 9-0 blowout on Sunday.
I thought the Mets should have saved Peterson for bigger spots against Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman or Max Muncy throughout the series rather than using him in a long relief role behind Senga. Tylor Megill would have been a better piggyback option to free up Peterson for lefty-specialist responsibilities.
The Mets' relievers had better second-half metrics (7th in xFIP, 7th in K-BB%, 23rd in botERA vs. 19th, 18th and 16th for the Dodgers), but I otherwise rate these bullpens about the same.
I projected the Mets as +117 underdogs for Game 2. Bet their full-game moneyline to +122.
I set the total at 7.71 runs and would bet the Under to 8 (-102).
Bets: Mets Full-Game Moneyline (+122 or better) | Under 8.5 (8, -102 or better)
Guardians vs Yankees Game 1
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +140 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -165 |
RHP Alex Cobb (CLE) vs. LHP Carlos Rodon (NYY)
The Yankees and Guardians have a lengthy playoff history and will meet in the postseason for the seventh time since 1997. New York has won four of the six prior playoff series and each of the last three, including the winner-take-all Game 5 in the 2022 ALDS.
The Yankees also won four of their six head-to-head meetings this season (+15 run differential), including a near sweep (two wins and an extra-innings loss) at home in late August.
They'll draw Carlos Rodon (4.14 xERA, 18.8% K-BB%, 103 Pitching+, 3.83 botERA) for his first time as a Yankee. Jose Ramirez (.725 OPS in 50 PA) is the only Guardians' hitter with a reasonable sample against him.
Rodon pitched better in the second half (3.67 xFIP, 21.3% K-BB%) than the first half (4.36 xFIP, 17.2% K-BB%) after an injury-riddled 2023 campaign, but he couldn't get through the fourth inning in his ALDS start against the Royals (3 2/3 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 0 BB, 7 K).
The southpaw puts the Guardians' offense into its better split (114 wRC+ vs. lefties on the season, 108 in the second half; that ranks 8th and 11th, respectively, vs. 20th (95) and 27th (88) against righties) after facing the best left-handed pitcher on the planet — Tarik Skubal — in two of their last four games.
Rodon is more four-seam/slider-focused (75.4% combined) than Skubal (who uses those pitches and his sinker to set up his elite changeup).
Cleveland's lineup hits four-seamers (12th in run value per 100 pitches) far better than sinkers (26th) or any other typical pitch type. Its offense also refused to strike out against lefties in the second half (18.6%, 2nd in MLB vs. 21.7%, 12th against righties). I would have bet Rodon Under 5.5 strikeouts at -125, but it's too juiced at -150.
Instead, consider Rodon Under 14.5 Outs (+120); Rodon is never particularly efficient with his pitch count when he does strike opponents out, but Cleveland's lineup is also the type to grind and make him work harder to get them by fouling pitches off. And he seemingly has blowup potential at any point in his starts — no matter how good he has looked to that point in the outing.
The Yankees bullpen (11th in second half xFIP, 11th in K-BB%, 13th in Pitching+, 15th in botERA) is also fully rested after three days off, enabling Aaron Boone to use his relievers aggressively in a fourth- or fifth-inning trouble spot, as he did in Rodon's last start.
Conversely, the Guardians bullpen tossed nearly the entirety of their decider against the Tigers – with key relievers Tim Herrin and Cade Smith (6o pitches combined) working each of the final three games in the series alongside both Hunter Gaddis (63 pitches) and Emmanuel Clase (40) in Games 4 and 5.
The Guardians should have the better bullpen throughout this series (2nd in 2024 xFIP, 2nd in K-BB%, 11th in Piching+, 16th in botERA). Still, their best relievers could use a blow after a grueling series against a division rival, and they may want more length from Alex Cobb in Game 1 than the 41 pitches and three innings he gave them in Game 3 against the Tigers.
I'd lean to the Overs on Cobb's usage and pitcher props.
Cobb posted impressive pitch modeling metrics (107 Pitching+, 3.76 botERA) in a small 16-inning sample following hip surgery last winter and shoulder issues this summer. Models particularly love his splitter (123 Stuff+) and knuckle curve (130 Stuff+).
Still, the Yankees had MLB's best offense against right-handed pitching this season (120 wRC+) and saw the third-most pitches per plate appearance (3.99) of any team. It's challenging to get through their lineup efficiently.
They have more power, which is typically the case when these teams play. The Yankees led MLB with 237 home runs — teams that win the home run battle have roughly an 84.5% win rate in playoff games since 2018.
Still, the power discrepancy isn't as comprehensive as in past matchups. The Yankees ranked first in homers and fourth in slugging percentage this season, while the Guardians ranked 12th and 16th, respectively. New York had identical rankings before its 2022 series, but Cleveland — with MLB's youngest roster — ranked 29th in homers and 21st in slugging that season.
Moreover, the Guardians have clear advantages both defensively and on the basepaths. New York is the 10th-ranked club by Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Outs Above Average (OAA), but the Guardians rank 2nd and 9th, respectively, and project better in my model, too.
The Guardians are also a league-average baserunning team (17th in Baserunning Runs Above Average or BsR), while the Yankees rank 30th in BsR and are the slowest team by sprint speed.
I set the Guardians as +136 underdogs (42.4% implied) for Game 1 in the Bronx and would play their moneyline at +142 (41.4% implied) or better.
I projected the total at 7.10 runs and would bet Under 7.5 at -105 if it lowers from the current level at -115.
Bets: Guardians Full-Game Moneyine (+142 or better)
Zerillo's MLB Predictions & Picks for Sunday, October 13
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Carlos Rodon, Under 14.5 Outs (+120, 0.1u) at Caesars
- Cleveland Guardians (+145, 0.5u) at ESPNBet (bet to +142)
- New York Mets (+125, 0.5u) at ESPNBet (bet to +122)
- New York Mets / Los Angeles Dodgers, Under 8.5 (-110, 0.75u) at FanDuel (bet to 8, -102)
