Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Monday, April 28.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. Today, I deep dive into Mets vs Nationals, Twins vs Guardians, Cardinals vs Reds and Athletics vs Rangers. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Monday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Monday, April 28
  |   |   |   |
Mets vs. Nationals
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +102 | 9.5 100o / -120u | -155 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -122 | 9.5 100o / -120u | +130 |
Griffin Canning (NYM) vs. Trevor Williams (WAS)
Monday's total in Washington opened at the key number of 9 — juiced to the Over — and was bet up to 9.5 by the conclusion of Sunday's 8-7 comeback win for the Nationals.
I projected the total in this matchup at 9.88 runs in near perfect baseball weather (74 degrees at first pitch, with 4-5 mph winds blowing out to left-center field), with hitter-friendly umpire Carlos Torres behind the dish (career 129-118; career 52.2% to the Over; K-BB% 2% worse than league average).
Bet the Over 9.5 to -105.
Nationals Park is an underrated hitter-friendly venue, ranking seventh in park factor (+2% above the league average) over the past three seasons. I project both offenses as better than league average, with a projected 122 wRC+ for the Mets and 108 wRC+ for the Nationals against a right-handed starter.
I discussed Griffin Canning last week, mentioning his new horizontal release point, which has led to a spike in ground-ball rate (53.4% vs. 40.1% career) and a career-best 3.65 xERA.
Trevor Williams has also posted a sub-four xERA over the past two seasons (3.17 in 2024, 3.88 in 2025) in 18 starts for the Nationals.
Still, both Williams (projected FIP range of 4.30 to 4.83) and Canning (projected FIP range of 4.17 to 4.60) project significantly worse than the results they have generated to date — and both have strikeout and walk figures at or below the major league average (13.5% for Canning and 12.6% for Williams vs. 13.3% leaguewide).
Pick: Over 9.5 (bet to -105)
| | | |
Twins vs. Guardians
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 8 -105o / -115u | +105 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 8 -105o / -115u | -125 |
Bailey Ober (MIN) vs. Gavin Williams (CLE)
Gavin Williams was a potential breakout candidate this spring but he has struggled through his first five starts (5.27 xERA, 4.11 botERA, 12.8% K-BB%).
But in his last outing against the Yankees, Williams posted his best pitch-modeling metrics (3.19 botERA, 104 Stuff+, 102 Pitching+) since his first start on March 29 (2.75 botERA, 105 Stuff+, 105 Pitching+) while recording a season-high eight strikeouts:
Williams has more than doubled his slider (101 Stuff+) usage this season (24.7%, up from 11.3%) at the expense of his cutter (-11% year over year) and changeup (-5%).
Still, the curveball (117 Stuff+) grades out as his best offering, and Williams threw it more than ever before (30.8%; high of 29.2% last season) against the Yankees.
Bailey Ober has lost a tick off of his fastball (90.7 mph vs. 91.7 career) and experienced a decline in both stuff (94 Stuff+, down from 98 career) and strikeout rate (20.9% vs. 26.9% last season).
Ober gains a ton of extension on his delivery — added perceived velocity by releasing the ball closer to home plate, using his 6-foot-9 frame.
Ober has been fortunate with his fastball to date (.254 xBA, .329 xwOBA vs. actual marks of .195 and .239), as it is not generating nearly as many whiffs (13.9%, down from 22.2%) or strikeouts (13.3%, down from 22.1%) as it did previously.
The projection market views these pitchers very similarly (projected FIP ranges of 3.83 to 4.05 for Williams and 3.81 to 4.26 for Ober); still, their trend lines are pointing in opposite directions, given Ober's declining velocity and Williams' increased reliance on his best pitch.
Moreover, the Guardians have a slightly better lineup at present (with Minnesota missing Royce Lewis, Willi Castro, Luke Keaschall, and Matt Wallner), and I projected the home team as -132 favorites.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline (bet to -121)
| | | |
Cardinals vs. Reds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 9 105o / -125u | +105 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 9 105o / -125u | -125 |
Andre Pallante (STL) vs. Nick Martinez (CIN)
I have written about Andre Pallante and his generally underrated profile numerous times this season, whether betting on the Cardinals' moneyline or the under in his starts.
In an era where pitchers with subpar strikeout or walk numbers are generally disregarded, Pallante (career 9.3% K-BB%) remains effective by keeping the ball both on the ground (career 66.5% ground-ball rate) and in the ball park (career 0.78 HR/9). As a result, I generally find value in betting on Pallante's success.
Still, Pallante's pitch modeling metrics (88 Stuff+, 5.21 botERA) and his underlying xERA (4.69) from Statcast are at career-worst levels (3.46 xERA, 4.61 botERA, 96 Stuff+ in 2024).
Pallante saw a velocity decrease last season after transitioning from the bullpen to the rotation. Every pitch in his arsenal has dipped further this year (fastball down 0.8 mph, sinker down 0.5 mph, slider down 0.9 mph, and curve down 1.5 mph), and his pitch modeling metrics have tanked, too — only the sinker, at 102 Stuff+, grades out as above average.
The velocity decrease began near the midpoint of the 2024 season, and Pallante's early 2025 data (93.8 mph fastballs and 84.2 mph breaking balls) aligns with his September 2024 data (93.9 mph and 83.3 mph, respectively) rather than his July 2024 data (95 mph and 85.2 mph, respectively).
