Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and picks for Monday, March 31.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my Monday MLB predictions and picks.
MLB Predictions, Picks — Monday, March 31
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Twins vs. White Sox Preview, Over/Under Prediction
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 8 -110o / -110u | -190 |
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 8 -110o / -110u | +158 |
Chris Paddack (MIN) vs. Martin Perez (CHW)
I'm on the under for Monday's matinee on the Southside, projecting the total at 7.76 runs as of Sunday night.
Since all 14 games on Monday feature new series, we don't have any umpire information as of writing; as always, my projections will update once that information becomes available, which could cause me to buy off of or onto a position.
Still, temperatures will be 42 degrees at first pitch of this matinee, counteracting the nine mph winds blowing out to right field. I projected the total at 7.76 runs as of Sunday night, and would set the number closer to 8.6 runs on a weather-neutral day in Chicago. Bet the Under to 8 (+100).
Both starting pitchers typically struggle with the long ball (Martin Perez 1.47 HR/9 in 2024, 1.33 in 2023; Chris Paddack 1.42 HR/9 career), but colder temperatures should reduce fly-ball distances on Monday.
The White Sox pitching staff could still give this under away on its own; Perez (5.36 xERA in 2025, 4.86 in 2024, average projected FIP of 4.75 for 2025) is a borderline No. 5 or replacement-level starting pitcher, and the White Sox had the worst bullpen in my preseason projections.
Moreover, this is a matchup between two below-average defensive teams, who will give one another extra outs to work with offensively.
However, the Twins have the No. 1 rated bullpen in my model, and they are fully rested after a blowout loss on Sunday. I project that unit to hold the White Sox to just 1.3 runs over the final four innings of this game.
Chicago was one of the best under teams last season (86-68-7, 55.8%, +8% ROI), primarily because it couldn't score. I don't think the offense is much better this year, but the bullpen (4.55 xFIP in 2024; projected 4.4 in 2025) has nowhere to go but up.
Pick: Under 8.5 (bet to -118 or 8, +100)
Pirates vs. Rays F5 Prediction, Moneyline Pick
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 8 -110o / -110u | +158 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +118 | 8 -110o / -110u | -190 |
Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) vs. Drew Rasmussen (TB)
The Pirates had a brutal opening weekend in Miami. On Sunday, the Bucs became the first MLB team to be walked off for their first three losses in a season since their 1924 club, and their bullpen blew a lead in each loss.
On full rest, I'd rate both bullpens closer to league average. Still, the Rays should have a significant bullpen rest advantage on Monday after Pittsburgh used Colin Holderman, Caleb Ferguson and David Bednar three times over the weekend, with Justin Lawrence working consecutive days on Saturday and Sunday.
Conversely, the Rays were off on Thursday, and Kevin Kelly is their only reliever who has pitched on consecutive days.
I'm unsure where the Pirates find middle relief innings behind converted reliever Carmen Mlodzinski (3.34 xERA in 2024), who maxed out at 64 pitches in spring training.
Mlodzinski's projections (projected FIP range of 3.96 to 4.43) include roughly five starts and 45 appearances as a reliever; Jared Jones and/or Bubba Chandler should assume his rotation spot shortly.
Mlodzinski pairs a sharp slider (132 Stuff+) with a four-seamer and cutter, but he doesn't have a deep enough arsenal to turn over opposing lineups multiple times effectively.
Conversely, the Rays' Drew Rasmussen projects as a frontline starter on a per-inning basis (projected FIP range of 3.07 to 3.65), and he has the results to back it up (career 2.95 ERA, 3.42 xFIP in 310 career innings), despite three elbow surgeries.
The Rays handled Rasmussen with care toward the end of 2024 (max 37 pitches), but he ramped up to 74 pitches in spring — his most since May 2023.
He has four potentially elite offerings (120 Stuff+ four-seamer, 119 Sinker, 122 cutter, 132 slider) and posted a career-best 25% K-BB% while returning from injury at the end of last year.
Drew Rasmussen’s last start before he got hurt was special… Can’t wait to see him pitch today. pic.twitter.com/6vSEMtKDzy
— Jake (@TBRaysCentral) March 3, 2025
A repeat of his 2022 season results wise (28 starts, 146 IP, 2.84 ERA) with better underlying strikeout and walk numbers and ERA indicators (16.1% K-BB%, 3.46 xERA, 3.56 xFIP in 2022) seems entirely possible.
Rasmussen could pitch into the sixth inning if he's efficient, and the Rays' offense could be attacking an exhausted and demoralized Pirates bullpen by the fifth.
One final note: Rays hitters have had multiple days to adjust to the batter's eye at Steinbrenner Field. I can't quantify an adjustment impact on the Pirates' hitters. Still, I would imagine a relative decrease in effectiveness for a team's first game (or more) in an unfamiliar venue.
I projected the Rays north of 65% implied (projected -189) in either half, and would bet them up to -175 in both the F5 and full-game markets.
Pick: Rays F5 Moneyline (bet to -175) | Rays Moneyline (bet to -175)
Giants vs. Astros Over/Under Pick
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -195 | 8.5 100o / -120u | +105 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 8.5 100o / -120u | -125 |
Jordan Hicks (SF) vs. Ronel Blanco (HOU)
My total projection (7.76) for Monday's contest in Houston assumes that the roof for Daikin Park will be closed despite potentially perfect weather (78 degrees) at first pitch.
There is rain in the forecast on Monday and Tuesday, and while it doesn't look like the rain will interfere with the game, the Astros have already left the roof closed despite ideal outside weather during their opening series against the Mets.
My projection also assumes that Patrick Bailey, who rested on Sunday, will catch for the Giants, as his pitch framing provides as significant an adjustment to my total (or win probability) as any defender.
Over the past two seasons, Bailey has 33 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), which ranks fourth amongst players at all positions (2024 NL Platinum Glove-winner Brice Turang has 34 over the same span), and includes 26 runs saved from his pitch-framing skills (and eight from stolen-base prevention).
Bailey led the position with 15 Strike Zone Runs Saved and 20 DRS last season.
patrick bailey frame god pic.twitter.com/hh4IcVmURZ
— Ant (@MrAnthony555) July 28, 2024
The Giants have my third-ranked bullpen, which is mostly intact despite a potentially treacherous series in Cincinnati; only Lou Trivino has worked consecutive days.
I'm much lower on Houston's bullpen. As I previously mentioned, the Astros are the only team I project for a winning record ranked in my bottom ten (23rd).
Still, they had Sunday to regroup and rest following a heavy workload (combined 93 pitches for Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu) for the two relievers in this bullpen that I trust.
One or both of Bryan King (projected FIP range 3.55 to 4.05) and Tayler Scott (projected FIP range 4.01 to 4.49) may outpitch their projections, too.
Pick: Under 8.5 (bet to -118 or 8, +100)
Cubs vs. Athletics F5 & Over/Under Pick
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -130 |
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +110 |
Ben Brown (CHC) vs. Joey Estes (A's)
