Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Thursday, April 4.
MLB Predictions for Thursday, April 4
Tigers vs. Mets
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 7.5 -102o / -120u | +110 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 7.5 -102o / -120u | -130 |
Casey Mize vs. Adrian Houser
I've included the write-up for this game for each of the past three days; it was rained out on Tuesday and Wednesday. The teams will play a single-admission doubleheader on Thursday, keeping the same pitching matchup between Casey Mize and Adrian Houser intact for Game 1.
Mize is likely under-projected for 2024 (projected FIP range 4.56-4.89). The former No. 1 overall pick — who missed the 2023 season with Tommy John surgery — revamped his pitch mix and posted solid numbers this spring (combined 18 2/3 IP, 11 H, 3 R, 7 BB, 19 K).
I give Detroit, with Mize, the starting pitching advantage against Mets' offseason signing Adrian Houser (4.21 xERA, 4.30 xFIP last season; projected FIP range 4.59-4.78). Still, I project a slight bullpen advantage for the Mets and prefer their position player group offensively (projected 110 vs. 98 wRC+ between these offenses against right-handed pitching).
The Mets' offense has been held to one or zero runs in three of four games, but I make them -139 favorites in Game 1 on Thursday and would bet their moneyline to -130. Considering I think Mize is better than Houser—and potentially severely under-projected, too—I'll skip the first half wager or first five innings (F5) moneyline and play the Mets' full-game moneyline only.
New York has gone 3-for-17 (.176 average) with runners in scoring position, compared to 9-for-24 (.375) for the Tigers. Both teams are due for regression in that category.
Bet: Mets ML (-130 or better)
Marlins vs. Cardinals
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -164 | 8 -118o / -104u | +126 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 8 -118o / -104u | -148 |
Ryan Weathers vs. Lance Lynn
I have closely tracked the Marlins' bullpen usage throughout the season's first week. During their 0-7 start, Miami's bullpen threw more innings than any team except for the Dodgers and Padres — who played additional games in Korea — and their long and key relievers were overworked at various points last week.
Miami's best high-leverage arms are finally well-rested and ready for action on Thursday, and I give the Marlins a slight bullpen advantage in this matchup.
Still, I prefer Lance Lynn (projected FIP range of 4.43 to 4.54) to Ryan Weathers (projected FIP range of 4.29 to 4.85), and I'm always happy to back the Cardinals against a southpaw with lefty killers Paul Goldschmidt (185 wRC+ vs. lefties over the past two seasons), Nolan Arenado (123) and Willson Contreras (139) in the heart of their batting order.
Weathers's velocity has increased in each of the past two seasons (93.6 mph in 2022, 95.1 mph in 2023 and 96.6 mph this season), and his Stuff+ rating moved from 88 with the Marlins in 2023 to 101 in his first outing of 2024.
Still, Weathers has primarily struggled with command throughout his career (9.3% walk rate, 3.66 BB/9). Improved stuff can lead to additional strikeouts — and get him out of a pinch with runners on base — but I expect Weathers to continue to allow baserunners at a high clip (career 1.54 WHIP).
Lynn was primarily victimized by the long ball last season, permitting a career-high 44 round-trippers (2.16 HR/9). Consequently, Miami is one of his easier potential matchups; the Marlins have the second-lowest fly ball rate in baseball (28.7%) and finished 30th in the same category last season (33.6%).
The Marlins hammered Lynn last September (4 2/3 IP, 7 H, 8 R, 3 HR, 3 BB, 1 K). Still, early returns show that the veteran has altered his pitch mix this season, opting for a modified slider and additional cutters, which should help generate weaker contact while dialing back fastball and curveball usage.
Lynn dialed back the velocity on his slider (down from 83.1 to 80 mph) and increased the vertical movement on the pitch from 4.1 to 9.6 inches. This thing is nasty:
I projected the Cardinals closer to -160 in the first half, compared to -144 over the full game. Bet the Cardinals' F5 moneyline to -150.
Bet: Cardinals F5 ML (-150 or better)
White Sox vs. Royals
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -152 | 8 -115o / -105u | +142 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +126 | 8 -115o / -105u | -168 |
Mike Soroka vs. Seth Lugo
On a weather-neutral day in Kansas City, I would set this total closer to 10 runs. However, pitchers should have favorable conditions on Thursday at Kauffman Stadium, with 11-mph winds blowing in from left field and temperatures dropping to the high 40s by the late innings.
As a result, Kauffman Stadium could play as much as 20% below its average run-scoring environment on Thursday.
I thought Seth Lugo (projected FIP range 4.22 to 4.44) was a sharp offseason signing by the Royals. Lugo posted a 103 Stuff+ and 103 Pitching+ rating over 26 starts for the Padres last season, alongside a 3.57 ERA, 4.42 xERA, and 3.76 xFIP.
Through one start, Lugo's fastball velocity (91.8 mph, down from 93.1 mph) and pitch modeling metrics (97 Stuff+) are a step down from his 2023 level. Still, Lugo threw his changeup and slider just as hard as last season. I'm more concerned when a pitcher experiences a velocity dip across their entire arsenal, and even at a slightly reduced level — evidenced by his 2024 projections — Lugo should be an effective arm.
Mike Soroka (projected FIP range of 4.33 to 4.79) is the bigger mystery. The 26-year-old former first-round pick posted one healthy season in 2019 (13-4, 2.68 ERA), but he has made 11 starts in the past five seasons while dealing with multiple Achilles and shoulder injuries.
Soroka posted an ugly line (5 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 0 K) in his 2024 debut, but he was much more effective this spring (13 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 5 BB, 17 K). The pitch modeling metrics aren't impressive, putting Soroka at a 94 Stuff+ in that first start for Chicago, although his slider and changeup graded out as average offerings.
Soroka knows to play to his strengths and throws those secondary pitches nearly 50% of the time combined. Still, if he does get into trouble, I'm not particularly confident in this White Sox bullpen bailing him out; Chicago likely has the worst projected bullpen in my betting model with a weighted ERA north of 4.70.
That said, given the harsh conditions, I still projected the total for this matchup closer to 8 runs. Bet Under 8.5 to -110.
Bet: Under 8.5 (-110 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Thursday, April 4
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- Cleveland Guardians / Minnesota Twins, Under 7.5 (-115, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -115)
- Chicago White Sox / Kansas City Royals, Under 8.5 (-110, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -110)
- New York Mets, Game 1 (-125, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -130)
- Pittsburgh Pirates / Washington Nationals, Under 9 (-120, 0.25u) at BetMGM (bet to -120)
- St. Louis Cardinals F5 (-145, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -150)
