Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday, April 9.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Wednesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my Wednesday MLB predictions and picks.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections 4/9
Marlins vs. Mets
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -120 | 7 -122o / 102u | +190 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +100 | 7 -122o / 102u | -230 |
Max Meyer (MIA) vs. Tylor Megill (NYM)
The Mets and Marlins both have off-days on Thursday before resuming their respective schedules on Friday, so I'd expect to see regular lineups for Wednesday's 1:10 p.m. ET tilt.
Both Tylor Megill (2.87 xERA, 2.92 botERA, 120 Stuff+, 118 Pitching+) and Max Meyer (3.70 xERA, 3.18 botERA, 103 Stuff+, 113 Pitching+) have looked electric in each of their first two starts of 2025.
Meyer — the No. 3 overall pick in the 2020 draft — finally looks healthy after missing the entirety of the 2022 and 2023 seasons due to Tommy John surgery.
Meyer was actively rehabbing in the majors last season (57 IP, 4.74 xERA, 10.9% K-BB%, 88 Stuff+, 95 Pitching+, 4.71 botERA). Still, the velocity is up across his entire arsenal this year, the movement profile on those pitchers has improved, and he is showing much better command, including his 13 innings in spring (11 K, 1 BB).
Meyer relies heavily on his slider (106 Stuff+, 49% usage rate in 2025); OOPSY (which incorporates more pitch modeling data) puts his rest-of-season FIP projection at 3.97, compared to a range of 4.07 to 4.56 across the remainder of the projection market.
OOPSY also has the most optimistic projection for Megill (3.92 FIP), who has four elite pitches, per Stuff+ (127 four-seamer, 117 slider, 112 sinker, 110 curveball). He also modified his arsenal, throwing his slider more (27.7% vs. 13.2% last season) and exchanging his cutter (13.6% in 2024) and splitter (7.3% in 2024) for more sinkers (19.5% usage rate through two starts vs. 9.8% last season).
Conditions won't be as pitcher friendly at Citi Field as Tuesday (43 degrees at first pitch, 33 real feel with a nine mph cross breeze), but I still set the total at 6.56 runs for this matinee; bet Under 7 to -108.
Pick: Under 7 (bet to -108)
Rangers vs. Cubs
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -145 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +148 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +122 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -175 |
Tyler Mahle (TEX) vs. Shota Imanaga (CHC)
Like the Mets and Marlins, the Cubs and Rangers both have an off-day on Thursday before resuming their schedules on Friday, and I wouldn't expect any of those teams to sit stars on Wednesday afternoon.
The Cubs will search for a series sweep behind Shota Imanaga (career 45.8% fly-ball rate, 1.31 HR/9), who could struggle with wind gusts blowing out 11-12 mph to left field. But with rain in the forecast and 42 degree temperatures at first pitch (with a real feel of 32), the park should play pitcher friendly, though less so than it was projected to in recent days.
Imanaga (3.12 xERA, 108 Stuff+, 117 Pitching+, 2.34 botERA) both rates and projects as a superior pitcher to Tyler Mahle (5.79 xERA, 3.58 botERA, 92 Stuff+, 105 Pitching+), who is making just his fifth regular-season start since recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Mahle made it back to the majors in August of last season, and his velocity in 2025 is up 1.3 mph relative to last season, closer to his career average (93.2 mph).
Still, he might struggle with command from one outing to the next; velocity typically returns before command as pitchers heal from UCL injuries.
As Mahle (projected FIP range of 4.06 to 4.54) continues to get more starts in 2025, he could pitch to a similar projection as Imanaga (projected FIP range of 3.79 to 3.90) in the second half, but the right-hander is highly reliant on proper pitch sequencing without a true out-pitch in his arsenal (all pitches below 100 Stuff+).
The Cubs have been the best "Over" team in the majors in 2025, but I set Wednesday's total at 7.42 runs; bet Under 8 to -108.
If Corey Seager happens to sit during a day game for the Rangers (as he sometimes does), bet Chicago on the moneyline to -165 (assuming its regular lineup is in place).
Pick: Under 8.5 (bet to 8, -108)
Angels vs. Rays
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8 100o / -120u | +122 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +143 | 8 100o / -120u | -145 |
Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) vs. Ryan Pepiot (TB)
At FanGraphs, Michael Rosen noted how Steinbrenner Field might potentially overtake Wrigley Field as the most wind-impacted park in the majors. This is due to a variety of factors, including high-average wind speeds and a lack of structural shielding on all sides (no second deck, outfield seats, or large buildings in the surrounding skyline).
