Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season. We've reached the final chapter of the MLB season with the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2024 World Series.
The goal for Opening Pitch remains the same for the Fall Classic: Highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite World Series bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every World Series game are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best World Series lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and expert picks and preview for Yankees vs Dodgers Game 2 on Saturday, October 26, plus an MLB futures update.
MLB Predictions Saturday, World Series Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today, October 26
MLB Futures Update
Below are my updated series moneyline and prop projections for the 2024 World Series before Game 2:
Bet the Yankees at +176 (36.2% implied) or better on the series moneyline before Game 2 (+200 at FanDuel).
I project value on their odds of winning the series 4-2 (projected +655, listed +750 at FanDuel) or their series spreads. The 4-2 correct score prop only has a projected edge of about 1.5%, however, whereas the series spread props offer far more actionable value:
- Yankees +2.5 Games (projected -301, 75.1% implied vs. -220 listed, 68.8% implied at ESPN BET) = +6.3% Edge
- Yankees +1.5 Games (projected -121, 54.8% implied vs. +100, 50% implied at FanDuel) = +4.8% Edge
- Yankees -1.5 Games (projected +359, 21.8% implied vs. +400 20% implied at ESPN BET) = +1.8% Edge
I'd bet those series spreads to -270 (Yankees +2.5), -112 (+1.5), and +405 (-1.5), respectively, and each of those bets offer a more significant edge than the Yankees' Game 2 moneyline odds.
Moreover, I show value on Over 5.5 Games (-180, 64.3% implied) compared to my projected line at -198 (66.4% implied), but -180 is the peak of my price target.
And I'd bet the series to last exactly seven games at +222 (31% implied) or better (projected +203, listed +230 at Caesars).
Yankees vs Dodgers Game 2
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | +118 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +143 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | -140 |
LHP Carlos Rodon (NYY) vs. RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD)
Although Carlos Rodon helps neutralize the Dodgers' potent left-handed bats, the Dodgers offense didn't show a noticeable split this season, ranking first in MLB against both right- and left-handed pitching.
Los Angeles posted a 121 wRC+ against lefties, compared to a 118 wRC+ against righties. To reiterate my point from yesterday regarding its lineup, after Max Muncy returned to the Dodgers batting order on Aug. 19, they led MLB with a 134 wRC+, including a mark of 136 against lefties.
Manager Dave Roberts will likely move Tommy Edman to the five-hole against Rodon. Edman is a switc- hitter but owns far better career numbers against lefties (124 wRC+) than righties (91) and posted a remarkable 250 wRC+ in limited action against southpaws this season.
The Dodgers will also move Enrique Hernandez to the infield and platoon Andy Pages with Gavin Lux (career 108 wRC+ vs. righties, 59 vs. lefties).
Rodon has looked electric in the postseason, with a 22:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and called-strike plus whiff rates of 35%, 38% and 27% across his three playoff appearances (27.5% career). He focuses heavily on his four-seam and slider combination, and the heater will be his key pitch on Saturday.
The Dodgers ranked close to a league-average offense against four-seamers but crushed sliders (4th) and virtually all other pitch types (run value per 100-pitch basis).
Yoshinobu Yamamoto had a career-best performance at Yankee Stadium in June (7 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 7 K) — while using his slider at a career-high rate (12.3%) — and he's pitched well in his past two postseason outings (CSW% of 38% in his last start against the Mets). The righty relies on his four-seamer, splitter and curveball; the Yankees ranked in the top five against four-seamers, splitters and sliders this season but dropped to 12th against curves.
I'd rate him as the slightly more effective starting pitcher, but Yamamoto also does a much better job at holding runners, too (he permitted four steal attempts this season). Rodon permitted 21 of 25 stolen-base attempts this season, and he's permitted 118 steals on 137 attempts (86.1%) throughout his career — abysmal numbers for a left-handed pitcher.
Consider stacking stolen base props for Shohei Ohtani (+260 at DraftKings), Tommy Edman (+310), Mookie Betts (+470 at FanDuel) and Teoscar Hernandez (+580) against Rodon in Game 2.
Both managers can be aggressive with their bullpens, and with Sunday being an off-day, I'd lean toward under 14.5 outs and 4.5 strikeouts for both starters.
The Dodgers ultimately added Brusdar Graterol and Alex Vesia to their World Series roster but at the expense of an injured Evan Phillips (3.27 xERA, 2.79 botERA, 107 Pitching+).
I set the Dodgers as -121 favorites (54.6% implied) in Game 2, and I would bet the Yankees at +125 (44.4% implied) or better.
We should have perfect baseball weather again on Saturday: 79 degrees at first pitch (74 mid-game) with 3-5 mph winds blowing out to right-center field.
I set the total at 8.2 runs with slightly pitcher-friendly umpire Andy Fletcher behind the dish (career 53.9% Under, +27.7 units for a consistent $100 bettor, +4.9% ROI).
Bet Under 8.5 to -106, and target a live Under 9 (to -105) or 9.5 (to -125).
Zerillo's MLB Predictions & World Series Picks for Saturday, October 26
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- Under 8.5 (+100, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -106)
