Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Sunday, June 2.
MLB Predictions Sunday | Expert Picks, Odds & Previews
Another day of fading Simeon Woods Richardson.
The Twins young starter is drastically overperforming in the early going (2.70 ERA, 4.36 xFIP). His stuff profile is underwhelming (86 Stuff+, zero plus pitches), so he hasn’t generated too many strikeouts (18.4%) or whiffs (18.6%).
Fading him has been a tough affair, given Minnesota is 6-2 in his starts this year. But I hope Houston’s hard-hitting lineup can jump-start the negative regression train. The Astros are MLB’s fifth-best lineup against right-handed pitching (114 wRC+), posting a .804 OPS against the side over the past two weeks behind a whopping 17 dingers.
Conversely, Hunter Brown continues to underperform on the mound (6.39 ERA, 3.99 xERA, 3.83 xFIP), and his stuff profile (103 Stuff+, two plus pitches) indicates he’s still an above-average young arm despite disastrous early-season results.
Minnesota’s offense is average against right-handed pitching, and Houston’s bullpen has been red-hot (1.91 ERA, 1.01 WHIP over the past two weeks).
Bets: Astros ML (-136)
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I think Brandon Pfaadt is beginning to find his stride. He’s drastically underperformed (5.08 ERA) his advanced pitching model metrics (104 Stuff+, 105 Location+) across his first two big league seasons, mainly due to a brutal batted-ball profile.
But he’s piecing together more quality starts on a more consistent basis. He’s posted a 3.40 ERA over his past eight outings behind a borderline-elite 46:9 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a relatively calm 28% hard-hit rate allowed.
He’s now sitting on a 2.86 xERA, so I'm encouraged.
At the minimum, Pfaadt is a far better pitcher than Jose Quintana, who has lost all his swing-and-miss ability (7% swinging-strike rate, 15% strikeout rate) behind a career-low average fastball velo (90). Throw in a pedestrian batted-ball profile (45% hard-hit rate), and you end up with a replacement-level arm (5.06 ERA, 5.08 xERA, 0.1 fWAR).
The Snakes still boast a fairly live offense against southpaws (115 wRC+ on the year), even if they’ve been slumping. The Mets are closer to a league-average lineup against righties, albeit slightly above league-average.
I love the Mets bullpen, so I have no interest in getting involved in the full-game markets. But Pfaadt against Quintana represents a monstrous first-half advantage for Arizona.
Bets: Diamondbacks F5 ML (-120)
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I really like what I’ve seen from the young Ben Brown across his first 13 MLB appearances. He’s posted a 112 Stuff+ mark across his arsenal behind a stupid 172 mark on his slider and a nasty knuckle curve.
He’s striking out 30% of batters and sports solid earned run indicators (2.72 ERA, 2.43 FIP, 3.33 xFIP), even if he’s struggled with command (9% walk rate, 96 Location+) and hard contact (4.19 xERA).
I feel fine backing him against Cincinnati’s hapless lineup, which sports a .626 OPS, 25% strikeout rate, 33% hard-hit rate and .275 xwOBA against righties over the past month.
While Nick Lodolo has posted solid earned run indicators (3.12 ERA, 2.91 xERA, 3.12 FIP, 3.22 xFIP), the advanced pitching models peg him as a league-average arm (99 Stuff+, 101 Location+).
The Cubs aren’t a heroic lineup, and I think very highly of the Reds bullpen – Fernando Cruz’s splitter has transformed Cincinnati’s back end.
With the wind blowing directly in at Wrigley this afternoon, I feel good about taking the Under between two young starters with upside, one dominant bullpen, and two struggling lineups. We project this total right around 6.7.
However, I also see value with the Cubs behind Brown and a big defensive advantage – Chicago ranks sixth in DRS (+36), while Cincinnati ranks 29th (-38).
Bets: Cubs ML (-116) | Under 7 (-104)
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I fully expect fireworks on Sunday Night Baseball.
Taijuan Walker started the season on the IL and hasn’t looked like the same pitcher. His fastball velo is down a tick year over year (92), and he’s lost heat on his cutter, sinker and splitter.
As a result, he’s seen a monster decrease in his advanced pitching model metrics (87 Stuff+, 96 Location+), missing bats at a career-worst rate (6.5% swinging strike rate). Thus, he’s forced to nibble around the edges more, where he’s walked eight batters across his past 14 innings.
His batted-ball profile looks similarly poor.
Walker can’t miss bats or force weak contact, a brutal combination against a St. Louis offense trending up against right-handed pitching. The Cardinals are MLB’s third-best offense against the side over the past month (125 wRC+).
Lance Lynn is an interesting case study, and a full breakdown of his late-stage career profile needs to be done in a different article. But the 37-year-old’s arm might be toast (83 Stuff+), he’s walking more batters than he has in a half-decade (9% walk rate), and he’s overperforming (3.45 ERA, 4.13 xERA, 4.25 FIP, 4.30 xFIP).
He should struggle against the Phillies, given everybody struggles against their second-ranked offense (116 wRC+). Lynn has battled the Phils twice since the beginning of last season, striking out 13 but walking seven across 10 innings and allowing seven runs in the process.
These are two relatively solid bullpens, but I wouldn’t expect top-notch results given the Cardinals relievers are slumping (4.46 ERA, 4.41 SIERA, 6% K-BB over the past two weeks) and the Phillies are a tad overextended (every reliever has thrown at least 10 pitches in the past two days).
These are also two bottom-10 defenses – St. Louis ranks 20th in DRS (-7), while Philadelphia ranks 26th (-30) – playing in an elevated run environment with breezes out toward right field, creating in a +8% home run factor per BallParkPal's model.
Bets: Over 9 (-110)
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