Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
You can find expert projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Sunday, June 23.
MLB Predictions Sunday | Expert Picks & Previews
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 9 -105o / -115u | -105 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 9 -105o / -115u | -113 |
Yusei Kikuchi (TOR) vs. Triston McKenzie (CLE)
Yusei Kikuchi has been incredibly good for the Blue Jays this season. He has a 3.79 xERA and a 3.34 xFIP combined with the lowest BB/9 of his career at 2.10.
The reason that he's been so successful is because he is using his fastball to set up the rest of his pitches. He utilizes his fastball 48% of the time, and although the pitch is allowing a .348 xwOBA, he has over 16 inches of iVB (induced vertical break), which allows him to live in the middle to upper part of the zone. It's a really good pitch (119 Stuff+), so with better location, he could begin to dominate.
His curveball, changeup and slider are each producing over a 25% whiff rate and are all allowing under a .320 xwOBA. He will be facing a Guardians lineup that ranks in the bottom 10 against left-handed fastballs, sliders and curveballs by xwOBA.
Triston McKenzie has struggled this season, mainly with his control. He has an xERA at 4.98 with a BB/9 well over five. The problem? He's way too reliant on a fastball that's been getting shelled.
The velocity on his heater is down almost 2 mph from last season and has very little movement. That has translated to it only producing a 23.5% CSW% (called strike plus whiff rate), which is in the 20th percentile. Not to mention, he's throwing it over 50% of the time and allowing well over a .400 xwOBA.
The Blue Jays have absolutely crushed slower fastballs — they have a .380 xwOBA against fastballs that are 95 mph or slower.
There is a pretty massive bullpen edge for Cleveland in this game, so I am going to target the starting pitching matchup. I have the Blue Jays projected at -167 for the first five innings (F5), so I like the value on the current line of -109.
Pick: Blue Jays F5 ML (-109 via BetRivers)
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 8 -112o / -108u | -178 |
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -114 | 8 -112o / -108u | +150 |
Pablo Lopez (MIN) vs. Hogan Harris (OAK)
This is set up to be a low-scoring game.
With an ERA of 5.63, Pablo Lopez is a massive positive regression candidate considering his xERA is 3.54 and his xFIP is 3.47. The reason he's had such bad luck is because of his sweeper. It's a really good pitch (111 Stuff+), but it's allowing a .385 wOBA despite a .271 xOBA. His fastball, however, has been dominant and it's the pitch that he will utilize the most to mow down the A's.
Lopez is in the 95th percentile for extension toward the plate, which allows him to hide the pitch longer and be more deceptive. Because of that, he is generating a 33.3% CSW%, which in the 92nd percentile. The A's have struggled at the plate recently with a 95 wRC+ over the last 30 days. They are also below average against all of Lopez's offspeed pitches.
Hogan Harris has made the switch to the starting rotation and his four starts have been serviceable. He had an xFIP above 4.50 in only one of those starts and he's displayed great control.
Predominately a fastball pitcher, Harris goes to his heater over 60% of the time. It has a ton of movement, ranking in the 87th percentile with 19 inches of break, which makes it a little deceptive, especially to right-handed hitters. He is only allowing a .270 wOBA to righties, which is good against this Twins lineup that is predominately right handed.
These two bullpens are also two of the best in baseball, ranking in the top 10 in Stuff+.
I have 7.38 runs projected for this game, so I like the value on Under 8 at +100.
Pick: Under 8 (+100 via BetMGM)
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 8 -115o / -105u | -104 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 8 -115o / -105u | -112 |
Luis Severino (NYM) vs. Javier Assad (CHC)
This moneyline is way too low for the Mets.
Luis Severino has found himself and is putting up elite numbers. Despite getting roughed up in his last outing against Texas, he still has a 3.54 xERA. One thing he's done that has made a big difference is eliminating the homers. Last year, his HR/9 rate was well over two — this season, it's at 0.85.
Severino is mainly a fastball/sinker pitcher and those two pitches have been pretty average this season. Where he's dominating is with his sweeper/slider.
He's only throwing it about 24% of the time, but opposing hitters have less than a .250 xwOBA against it, mainly because it's producing close to a 65% ground-ball rate. The Cubs have been below average against right-handed pitching this season; they have a 95 wRC+ and just a .300 wOBA over the last 30 days.
Javier Assad is a pretty big negative regression candidate. He has a 2.75 ERA, but his xERA is up at 4.07.
Assad doesn't have any offspeed pitches that he throws at a high rate. Over 75% of the time, it's either a fastball, cutter or sinker, and all of those pitches have been pretty average. His fastball and sinker both have a Stuff+ rating below 80 and his cutter is allowing over a .400 xwOBA.
The Mets over the last 30 days have a 120 wRC+, which is the second-best mark in baseball, and they are also top 10 against right-handed pitching.
I have the Mets projected at -124 on the moneyline, so I like the value on them at -102.
Pick: Mets ML (-102 via DraftKings)
