Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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Here are my MLB predictions and expert picks and previews for Dodgers vs Mets NLCS Game 6 on Sunday, October 20.
MLB Predictions Sunday, Expert NLCS Picks, Preview for Dodgers vs Mets
MLB Futures Update and Championship Series Prices
- NLCS Projections:
- World Series Projections:
- Yankees: 52.2% (-109)
- Dodgers: 41.1% (+143)
- Mets: 6.7% (+1385)
The Yankees clinched the AL Pennant and advanced to the World Series.
I'd make their series with the Dodgers about a coin flip; the Yankees are the slightly better team, but the Dodgers would have home-field advantage. However, I'd set the Yankees closer to 64% favorites against their cross-town rivals.
I'd need +468 (17.6% implied) or better to play the Mets to win the final two games of the NLCS. Their best available price is around +400 (20% implied).
Mets vs Dodgers Game 6
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
LHP Sean Manaea (NYM) vs Bullpen Game (LAD)
Sean Manaea (3.75 xERA, 16.4% K-BB%, 96 Pitching+, 4.45 botERA) will hope to extend the Mets' season to a Game 7 after providing five mostly quality innings in Game 2 (5 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 7 K, 31% CSW%).
Manaea attacked the Dodgers with 54 sinkers (62%), 20 sweepers (23%) and 13 changeups (15%), which aligns with his pitch usage from September (66% sinker, 21% slider, 11% changeup, 2.1% four-seamer).
Manaea has looked like the Mets' best pitcher in three consecutive playoff starts (combined 17 IP, 11 H, 5 ER, 6 BB, 17 K) following an impressive second half (3.75 xERA, 19.2% K-BB%; 4.29 and 14% first half) after changing his delivery and altering his pitch mix near the end of July.
Manaea started using a cross-body delivery — similar to Chris Sale — and found his arm slot in the bullpen by warming up one mound over from his catcher before games.
He also started using his sinker more aggressively at the expense of his cutter and four-seamer. Manaea used his sinker 31.8% of the time in April, but that usage more than doubled to 66% by September:
With four blowouts in five games, neither bullpen's key relievers have had to work particularly hard in this series.
Still, the Mets need to continue to manage plate appearances against Shohei Ohtani (202 wRC+ vs. righties, 141 vs. lefties), Max Muncy (145 vs. righties, 107 vs. lefties) and Freddie Freeman (151 vs. righties, 113 vs. lefties).
Manaea (2.83 xFIP vs. lefties, 4.35 vs. righties in 2024) remains their best option to do so on Sunday if he can get through the opposing order three (or 2 1/2) times.
Here's how Manaea's Game 2 closing prop odds compare to his current Game 6 odds:
- Game 2: Over 15.5 Outs (-125/-115), Over 4.5 K's (-143/+120), Over 4.5 Hits (-120/-120), Over 1.5 Walks (-115/-120), Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+115/-160)
- Game 6: Over 15.5 Outs (+105/-150) / Over 4.5 K's (-154/+112) / Over 4.5 Hits (+105/-145), Over 2.5 Walks (+140/-200) / Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+110/-150)
Manaea's outs prop has moved toward the Under, and the juice on his K and hits props have moved accordingly, too.
Doing some simple math, 15.5 outs, 4.5 hits, and 2.5 walks is 22.5 batters. Manaea faced 22 in Game 2, leaving after facing Freeman (the cleanup hitter) a fourth time. He did start the sixth inning, and his Over 15.5 outs was a bad beat (two walks and a fielder's choice error to start the inning).
Still, when Freeman sat against Manaea in Game 4 — the Dodgers hit Muncy 6th — leaving five right-handed bats (including the switch-hitting Tommy Edman) between Ohtani and Muncy.
As a result, depending upon Sunday's lineup construction, I'd like Manaea Under 15.5 Outs if Freeman sits and Muncy doesn't hit cleanup, but I would lean Over if Freeman plays or Muncy moves up in the order.
If there's a gap of four righties between Ohtani and Muncy, Manaea is likelier to exit after facing Ohtani for a third time. Manaea could face 24 or 25 hitters if all three play, however.
Danny Young (49 pitches on Thursday), Jose Quintana (83 pitches on Thursday) and David Peterson (79 pitches on Friday) are the Mets' only other left-handed options, and I wouldn't expect to see any of the three in Game 6.
Freeman's status for Sunday remains in doubt with his ankle injury. The star first baseman has just a.461 OPS in the playoffs (1 BB, 6 K) and is 1-for-15 in his past three games, with four strikeouts. Bet Freeman Under 1.5 Total Hits + Runs + RBIs (-125), as opposed to under 0.5 Hits or total bases (+140) or his juiced-up Under 1.5 total bases (-225).
With Walker Buehler waiting to start a potential Game 7, the Dodgers will turn to a bullpen game on Sunday, potentially led by Ryan Brasier (3.57 xERA, 18.2% K-BB%, 105 Pitching+, 3.37 botERA), who will look to neutralize righties Mark Vientos and Pete Alonso (2.74 xFIP vs. righties, 4.57 vs. lefties) in between the switch-hitting Francisco Lindor and left-handed Brandon Nimmo, before exiting.
However, I wouldn't expect Landon Knack (3.78 xERA, 17.8% K-BB%, 99 Pitching+, 4.60 botERA) to be the first arm out of the Dodgers bullpen as Dave Roberts deployed him down 1-0 in Game 2.
Instead, I'd expect Roberts to pitch the game backwards — as he did in Game 4 of the NLDS against San Diego — and turn to a combination of his higher-leverage arms, including Michael Kopech (3.46 xERA, 19.4% K-BB%, 108 Pitching+, 2.56 botERA), Evan Phillips (3.27 xERA, 20.2% K-BB%, 107 Pitching+, 2.79 botERA), Daniel Hudson (3.78 xERA, 17.4% K-BB%, 101 Pitching+, 4.36 botERA) and Anthony Banda (3.29 xERA, 15.3 K-BB%, 100 Pitching+, 3.40 botERA) for three-to-five-out stints behind Brasier.
So long as you're not down big early, use your best arms first, then figure out the leftover outs with a combination of Knack, Blake Treinen (pitched in Games 3 and 4), and your fresh long relievers (Edgardo Henriquez and Ben Casparius).
The Mets have done an incredible job of advanced scouting opposing bullpens all year, leading to many crooked numbers in the late innings against certain relievers. Still, all but one of their NLCS runs have come against Knack, Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Brent Honeywell. Aside from a first-inning run against Brasier in Game 2, they haven't been able to score off the Dodgers' best arms, and neither could the Padres.
I project the Dodgers as -131 favorites with Freeman in their lineup but would lower that projection to -125 if he sits. I'd make a more substantial adjustment if Freeman were fully healthy, but he's not.
I projected the total at 8.24 runs and would be comfortable betting Over 8 (+100) or Under 8.5 (+100). The total opened at 8.5 (-110/-110) and has pushed toward the Under, but I doubt either of those bets comes into range (best current odds Over 8, -118 or Under 8.5, -118).
Conditions should slightly boost run-scoring (79 degrees at first pitch, 7.3 mph winds blowing out to right-center field), and plate umpire David Rackley (career 53.1% Over, +2.8% ROI) is hitter-friendly.
That said, given the Dodgers' aggressive bullpen usage (and the Mets' if they fall behind in a must-win game), I'd grab a live Under (to 9, -105 or 9.5, -125) if there's early scoring.
Zerillo's MLB Predictions & Picks for Sunday, October 20
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- Freddie Freeman, Under 1.5 Total Hits + Runs + RBIs (-125, 0.2u) at ESPN BET (bet to -150)
- Live Under 9 (-105 or better) or 9.5 (-125 or better)
