Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and NLDS picks and previews for Sunday, October 6.
MLB Predictions Sunday, Expert NLDS Picks & Previews Today, October 6
MLB Futures Update and Divisional Series Prices
Below are my updated projections for the four divisional series:
Both AL underdogs can turn to their aces—Tarik Skubal and Cole Ragans—on complete rest in Games 2 and 5 of the ALDS. If you bet on either of those teams, consider the exact result prop combinations that will have them win those games.
Among the eight teams remaining, only the Mets show value on the series line before Game 2. Typically, I'd bet the Mets up to -180 (64.4% implied) at a two percent edge compared to my number; however, I have a series ticket from before Game 1 and would rather bet them game by game than double down on the same position at juiced up odds.
Concerning exact series score props, I project value on Cleveland 3-2 (projected +365, listed +430) and NY Mets 3-2 (projected +418, listed +470) compared to listed odds at FanDuel.
Zerillo's Mets vs Phillies Game 2 Preview
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 8 -120o / 100u | +122 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8 -120o / 100u | -145 |
Luis Severino (NYM) vs Cristopher Sanchez (PHI)
After a dramatic comeback in Game 1- the first-ever playoff meeting between these NL East rivals – the Mets will send out Luis Severino (3.88 xERA, 13.3% K-BB%, 101 Pitching+, 3.84 botERA) in Game 2 against Cristopher Sanchez (3.51 xERA, 14.5% K-BB%, 106 Pitching+, 3.16 botERA).
The 27-year-old Sanchez (2 1/3 career postseason innings), who had a breakout season in Philadelphia, might be a surprising selection for Game 2 ahead of Aaron Nola (3.75 xERA, 17.9% K-BB%, 104 Pitching+, 3.63 botERA) – who has much more playoff experience (nine starts, 48 2/3 innings).
Still, Sanchez has shown significant home/road splits (career 2.96 xFIP, 19.3% K-BB% at home; 3.93 xFIP, 9.1% K-BB% on the road), which might be related to the extreme mound construction at Citizens Bank Park (which has the most significant impact on release height in MLB).
Both the weather (75 degrees at first pitch, six mph out to right field) and plate umpire Edwin Moscosco (career 79-47-7 to the Over, +$2,717, 20.4% ROI) should help to boost the run-scoring environment at the Bank on Sunday. Still, both starting pitchers keep the ball on the ground – which should neutralize the wind effect.
Sanchez has had the fifth-highest groundball rate (57.3%) among starting pitchers since the start of last season, while Severino started throwing a sinker nearly 25% of the time this year, and his groundball improved to 46%—its highest level since 2017.
Moreover, the shadows on Saturday impacted both offenses early on. While Zack Wheeler was phenomenal, the Mets set a record with 30 whiffs against him, and they took some particularly ugly and uncompetitive swings. Both teams succeeded more against the other's bullpen, but those at-bats also came closer to sunset, when the hitters had a more straightforward look at the batter's eye.
I respect both bullpens, but I will search for a live Over on this matchup beneath or at the key numbers of 5 and 7 rather than betting a pre-game over 7.5 (projected 8.01). Typically, I'd take -110 or better on Over 7.5 (currently -115), but given Sanchez's extreme home/road splits and the early game shadows in Philadelphia, I expect both starters to pitch well.
The southpaw, Sanchez, puts the Mets in their better split (118 wRC+, 4th vs. lefties, 119 after the trade deadline), while the Phillies remain in their lesser split against a right-handed pitcher (104 wRC+, 13th on the season vs. 121, 5th vs. lefties).
I don't project value on the moneyline or total for Game 2, but I would consider Over 7.5 at -110 or wait for a live wager (likely at 4.5 and 6.5 or 5 and 7) as the shadows move away.
Concerning player props, the Mets pitched around Bryce Harper on Saturday – feeding him one strike across his first three plate appearances (2 BB, 1 K). And besides the fastball he saw in the middle of the zone for his first-inning homer, Kyle Schwarber also saw a stay diet of pitches to chase. I like either lefty slugger to walk at plus money in Game 2.
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Zerillo's Padres vs Dodgers Picks for Game 2
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8 -120o / 100u | +118 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +143 | 8 -120o / 100u | -140 |
RHP Yu Darvish (SD) vs RHP Jack Flaherty (LAD)
Some teams balked at Jack Flaherty's medicals at the trade deadline, and going to the Dodgers—who have not been able to keep any of their starting pitchers healthy—seemed like a red flag at the time.
Flaherty was among the best pitchers in MLB through August (2.78 xFIP and 26.3% K-BB%), but September was easily his worst month this season (4.07 FIP, 13.4% KBB%). Flaherty's fastball and slider velocity (averaged 93.5 and 84.8 mph through August) dipped to 91.8 and 83.8 mph (down 1.5 and 1.0 mph) in his final two starts of the season – which represents his lowest over any two-game appearance since 2017.
The Padres will counter with Yu Darvish (3.64 xERA, 16.9% K-BB%, 102 Pitching+, 3.84 botERA), who missed a substantial chunk of the season due to elbow inflammation and a two-month stint of voluntary leave while dealing with a personal matter.
The Padres got Darvish back just in time for September, and with Joe Musgrove undergoing season-ending surgery, his playoff contributions are even more vital.
As they proved on Saturday, both lineups are potent. The Dodgers lead MLB with a 135 wRC+ since late August (when Max Muncy returned and made their lineup the healthiest it had been all year). The Padres have ranked inside the top six (111 wRC+) for the entire season.
Weather (85 degrees at first pitch, five mph winds out to right center field) and plate umpire John Libka (career 85-74-1 to the Over, +$482, +2.8% ROI) should both positively impact the run-scoring environment for this contest. I projected the F5 total at 5.15 runs and the full game total at 9.08 runs; bet the Overs to 4.5 (-125) and 8.5 (-112), respectively.
After downgrading Flaherty, I also show value on the Padres (projected +115; bet to +125), who retain their potentially severe bullpen advantage (2nd in xFIP and K-BB%, 1st in pitch modeling metrics in the second half; Dodgers below average in all four categories).
I'll take a more direct fade of Flaherty in the prop market by betting Over 1.5 Walks (+105 at Caesars). He's exceeded that number in six of his past eight outings, including three walks against 21 Padres hitters in his last start. Perhaps Flaherty's velocity improves after a lengthy layoff (last pitched September 25). Still, he's looked like a reduced version of his former self over the past month, and his command would be shakier off the layoff if anything.
Zerillo's MLB Predictions & Picks for Saturday, October 5
- San Diego Padres / Los Angeles Dodgers, F5 Over 4.5 (-105, 0.25u) at DraftKings (small to -125)
- San Diego Padres / Los Angeles Dodgers, Over 8 (-120, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to 8.5, -112)
- San Diego Padres (+136, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +125)
