Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and Opening Day picks for Thursday, March 27.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some MLB betting notes and analysis. For Opening Day, I'm tackling eight games, including Brewers vs Yankees, Orioles vs Blue Jays, Phillies vs Nationals, Angels vs White Sox and Athletics vs Mariners.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
MLB Predictions & Prop Picks for Opening Day
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Brewers vs. Yankees Preview, Over/Under Pick
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 8 -105o / -115u | +118 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 8 -105o / -115u | -140 |
Freddy Peralta vs. Carlos Rodon
Temperatures will be a bit chilly (50 degrees at first pitch) on Thursday in the Bronx, and both the Brewers and Yankees rate as strong defensive teams in my model, lowering my projected total to 7.27 runs for Thursday's opener — bet the Under down to 7.5 at even money. Take the Brewers if their line moves to +140, otherwise pass on a side.
Milwaukee finished third in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and fourth in Outs Above Average (OAA) last season. Joey Ortiz (+1 DRS career at shortstop, +5 at third base) can cover for the departed Willy Adames (+1 OAA, -16 DRS last season) up the middle.
The Yankees finished 10th and 12th, respectively, by the same advanced defensive stats, but replacing Aaron Judge (-9 in 903 innings in 2024) with Cody Bellinger in center (-5 in 2,986 innings in CF since 2021), Juan Soto (-career -12 DRS) with Judge in right, Gleyber Torres (-11 in 2024) at second with Jazz Chisholm Jr. (career +6 at second base) and Jazz at third with Oswaldo Cabrera (+9 DRS in 706 innings at third base) upgrades their alignment at four positions, with Anthony Volpe (+15 in 2023, +6 in 2024) starring up the middle.
The Yankees smashed right-handed pitching last season (1st in wRC+), but losing Soto in free agency and Giancarlo Stanton to the IL downgrades their lineup by more than 10% relative to league average. Milwaukee performed better against righties (10th) than lefties (15th) last season, and I view them as a league-average offense against lefties in 2024.
Both starting pitchers can be enigmatic. I prefer Freddy Peralta by about a quarter of a run on a season-long ERA; he extended to 91 pitches in spring training, and he should be a bit more stretched out than Carlos Rodon (maxed at 77 pitches in spring).
Still, both teams are off on Friday before finishing their series over the weekend, and in a tight game, both managers are extra incentivized to deploy their high-leverage arms. Devin Williams facing his former team in a tight spot is precisely the drama we need on Opening Day.
Pick: Under 8 (bet to -118 or 7.5, +100)
Orioles vs. Blue Jays Over/Under Prediction
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 8.5 100o / -120u | +100 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 8.5 100o / -120u | -120 |
Zach Eflin vs. Jose Berrios
With temperatures in the 40s in Toronto this week, you can expect that the Rogers Centre roof will be shut on Thursday.
I set the total for this matchup at 7.72 runs; bet the Under to 8 (+100). Wait for +105 or better on Toronto.
The Blue Jays finished as the No. 1 team by DRS last season (+102) and ranked fifth in OAA, but they upgraded their unit further by acquiring Andres Gimenez, who leads all second basemen with 58 DRS at the keystone over the past three seasons (20 more than any other player). Gimenez ranks second amongst all defenders in DRS over that span, behind his new teammate, Daulton Varsho (+72, currently on IL), and ahead of Ke'Bryan Hayes (56).
Baltimore finished as a below-average defensive team in 2024 (19th in DRS, 21st in OAA) but projects closer to league average in 2025. The O's also have an elite bullpen (T-3rd in my rankings) and a significant advantage in the bullpen matchup (projected 22nd) and starting pitching matchup against the Blue Jays.
I rate Zach Eflin (projected FIP range of 3.83 to 4.00) as a No. 2 pitcher, and Jose Berrios (projected FIP range of 4.33 to 4.61, 96 Pitching+) closer to league average or No. 4 starter. Interestingly, Berrios has always shown strong home-road splits (xFIP 0.7 higher, K-BB% 5% worse on the road for his career), but neutralized those results in his 2024 sample.
Still, with Gunnar Henderson on the IL for the Orioles, the offensive matchup between these two lineups becomes far more comparable, provided Bo Bichette bounces back from a miserable 2024 season (71 wRC+ vs. 124 in 2023, 129 in 2022) for the Jays.
Pick: Under 8.5 (bet to -118 or 8, +100)
Phillies vs. Nationals Moneyline Pick; Zack Wheeler Prop Bet
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 7 -125o / 105u | -155 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 7 -125o / 105u | +130 |
Zack Wheeler vs. MacKenzie Gore
Opening Day favorites coming off a postseason appearance are 90-38 (70.3%, 17.1% ROI), per the Action Labs database, winning by an average margin of nearly two runs per game (1.97) and producing a profit of $2,185 for a consistent $100 bettor:
These teams typically have 1) a better-than-average No. 1 starter and 2) a handful of extremely effective high-leverage relievers — and all of those elite pitchers tend to pitch in their Opening Day games.
Six favorites (Astros, Braves, Orioles, Phillies, Royals, Yankees) fit that criteria for Thursday; two of those teams (Orioles and Yankees) lost their planned Opening Day starter (Grayson Rodriguez and Gerrit Cole) and both the Blue Jays and Brewers are on my watchlist for Opening Day underdog bets (at +105 and +140, respectively).
The Nationals are the only team I currently project moneyline value on, marketwide; I set their chances around 45% as home underdogs on Opening Day, and they are listed at +145 (40.8% implied) at nearly every book as of Wednesday afternoon.
Considering I bet the Nationals' win total Over 69.5 (no value now at 72.5) and the Phillies Under 91.5 remains my favorite win total Under wager (projected 84.7) at current odds, I'd expect to find myself betting on more of these head-to-head matchups.
Washington likely has the worst bullpen in the National League — potentially the worst in baseball — and I'd nominate them as the team likely to produce our grossest moneyline beat of the season.
However, the Nats' young offensive core is equally fun to watch, because they don't strike out (second in K% behind the Padres over the final two months of 2024), and they run the bases aggressively, attempting 20 more steals (122) than any other team in the second half of the season (6th in baserunning value on the year).
I'm comfortable backing MacKenzie Gore, who jumped a level with a velocity bump (fastball from 95 to 96 mph, slider from 88.5 to 90.6 mph) last season. He could continue to grow into an All-Star-caliber pitcher with better command of three potential plus pitches.
As long as the walk rate remains near 9%, Gore still rates closer to a league-average arm, and well below an ace-tier pitcher like Zack Wheeler, who made significant strides to control the running game during his first four seasons in Philadelphia (13 SB, 11 CS) after baserunners ran wild during his time with the Mets (39 SB, 9 CS).
Still, with the pitch clock, Wheeler allowed eight steals on 11 attempts in 2024; I suspect the Nationals, who ran more aggressively than any other team in the second half (1.79 attempts per game in the first half, 1.9 in the second half), will continue to force their opponents into mistakes with the same offensive core.
Jacob Young at +450 (97th percentile in sprint speed) Dylan Crews at +230 (93rd percentile), 6-foot-7 James Wood (85th percentile) at +550, and CJ Abrams (81st percentile) at +370 are each worth considering for steals props on a daily basis — and all are worthy options to juice up Nationals-oriented SGPs with Opening Day promos.
I also like Wheeler Under 6.5 strikeouts; Action Labs has him at 5.8 for Opening Day.
Wheeler is a bit more sinker/pitch-to-contact reliant early in the season, before ramping up his four-seam usage, velocity, and strikeout rate closer to the postseason. More importantly, his pitch count generally stays around 90 until his third start of the year (71, 75 in final two spring outings), and, aside from Paul Dejong (career 27.5% K%), Nationals hitters continue to strikeout at one of the lower rates in baseball.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline (bet to +140) | Zack Wheeler, Under 6.5 Strikeouts (bet to -160)
Angels vs. White Sox Over/Under Pick
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 8 -102o / -118u | -155 |
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 8 -102o / -118u | +130 |
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Sean Burke
I bet Yusei Kikuchi at long odds to win AL Cy Young, and did the same with Sean Burke to win AL Rookie of the Year, so its not unsurprising to find myself on theis Opening Day under despite a matchup between two of my projected bottom-eight bullpens, who finished 29th (White Sox, 4.55) and 30th (Angels, 4.58) in xFIP last season. I have the Angels' pen ranked 24th going into this season, and the White Sox 30th.
Burke flashed better pitch modeling metrics (101 Stuff+, 103 Pitching+) than pitchers considered to be significantly better pitching prospects in the AL (Zebby Matthews, Kumar Rocker, Jack Leiter), with an above-average fastball/changeup combination. He got roughed up in spring, but has been working to develop a breaking ball to counteract left-handed hitters (10 K, 0 BB in 26 PA vs. righties and 12 K, 7 BB in 50 PA vs. lefties).
ERA projections for 2025 put Burke anywhere between 3.97 and 4.73. Still, I lean toward the more optimistic end of that range, and his projection from OOPSY, which relies more on pitch modeling metrics, projects Burke as a league-average pitcher. He could post a two-WAR season as a rookie.
Kikuchi tied with Tarik Skubal for the second-best K-BB% in the AL over the second half of 2024 (24.8%), while posting a career-best 31.1% K% after modifying his approach to right-handed hitters (3.23 xFIP vs. 4.07 career vs. right-handed hitters). He added a sweeper this offseason and has looked electric at times this spring.
A matchup with the White Sox (30th vs. righties and lefties in 2024, 75 and 74 wRC+, respectively), who I project for an 81 wRC+ against southpaws, is as soft a landing spot as you can get for Opening Day.
In chilly weather (48 degrees at first pitch), I set this total at 7.2 runs; bet the Under to 7.5 (-102). And wait for +135 or higher before considering backing the White Sox.
Pick: Under 8 (bet to 7.5, -102)
Mets vs. Astros Bets, Props
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -195 | 7.5 -120o / 100u | +110 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 7.5 -120o / 100u | -130 |
Clay Holmes vs. Framber Valdez
