Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Thursday, August 29.
MLB Predictions Thursday, Expert Picks, Odds, and Preview for Today, August 29
Sean Zerillo's MLB Marlins vs. Rockies Prediction & Pick: The Defensive Best Bet
Valente Bellozo (MIA) vs. Bradley Blalock (COL)
When the Rockies play their regular lineup, they can field a high-quality defensive team with above-average or elite defenders at nearly every position.
Good defense is crucial for stealing hits at Coors Field, which boasts the highest base hit factor (116; 100 is league average) in MLB over the past three seasons, compared to 7th in home run factor (108).
Colorado has an elite defensive center fielder in Brenton Doyle (24 Defensive Runs Saved or DRS, 3rd among MLB CF since last season), and Nolan Jones (+8) — who returned last week after a lengthy absence — has graded well, too, flashing a plus corner outfield arm in his young career.
The Rockies have an elite left side to their defensive infield — perhaps the best in baseball — featuring young stud Ezequiel Tovar (+20 DRS at shortstop, 1st in MLB since last season) and veteran Ryan McMahon (+25 DRS at third base, 2nd in MLB since last season).
How did Ryan McMahon pull this off?! 😲 pic.twitter.com/aiOdbEag4g
— MLB (@MLB) August 7, 2024
Michael Toglia has delivered 21 homers and 7 DRS at first base in 2024 alone (T-4th at his position). However, Brendan Rodgers (-5 DRS in 2024) has struggled at second base despite his athleticism.
As a team, the Rockies rank 9th in DRS (+26) and 19th in Outs Above Average (-4); the Marlins rank 26th (-22) and 25th (-20), respectively.
The starting pitching matchup is reasonably comparable; I'm not high on either Valente Bellozo (5.04 xERA, 5.45 xFIP, 9.4% K-BB%, 71 Stuff+, 97 Location, 87 Pitching+, 5.46 botERA) or Bradley Blalock (4.72 xERA, 3.9% K-BB%, 91 Stuff+, 94 Location+, 93 Pitching+, 5.37 botERA.)
Projection systems place the pair in a similar tier, with Blalock's rest-of-season FIP between 4.64 and 5.63 and Bellozo's between 4.64 and 5.07.
Both bullpens have been terrible since the All-Star break, ranking in the bottom five in xFIP, K-BB%, and Pitching+; the Marlins have slightly better underlying indicators, a higher Stuff+ rating, and project as the better unit.
Both offenses rank in the bottom five (Miami 26th, 87 wRC+; Colorado 28th, 85 wRC+) against right-handed pitching this season.
Colorado's defensive edge is the most significant differential between these clubs and is worth as much as 2.5% toward my moneyline projection for this matchup.
Bets: Rockies F5 Moneyline (-145 or better) | Rockies Full-Game Moneyline (-125 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Best Bet: The Weather Prediction & Pick
Bowden Francis (TOR) vs. Kutter Crawford (BOS)
Bowden Francis has been on a tear over his past four starts (27 IP, 1.33 ERA, 2.78 xFIP, 8 H, 4 R, 4 BB, 34 K, including eight no-hit innings against the Angels on August 24.
The 28-year-old righty made a noticeable adjustment on August 7, putting away his curveball (5.6% since vs. 27.8% prior) while emphasizing his splitter (27.8% since vs. 13% prior), which he started throwing this season.
Both pitches rate well in Stuff+ models (Splitter 106, Curve 102), but the splitter has been dominant (.171 xBA, .236 xSLG, .184 xwOBA) while the curveball has gotten hammered (.277 xBA, .408 xSLG, .330 xwOBA).
Francis has a .096 BABIP and a 100% strand rate across this four-start sample with a new pitch mix, and I doubt that he will continue to pitch like an ace, but I would take the Under (by about a half run) on his rest-of-season FIP projections (projected range of 4.47 to 4.71).
Cool temperatures (65 degrees at first pitch, 61 by the late innings) should provide favorable conditions for both pitching staffs on Thursday; I set the total at 8.28 runs, compared to 9.74 on an average day in Boston.
Bets: Under 9 (-117 or better)
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Weather
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, August 29
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Baltimore Orioles / Los Angeles Dodgers, Under 8.5 (-115, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars (flat t0 -117)
- Colorado Rockies F5 (-122, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to -145)
- Colorado Rockies (-118, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -125)
- Los Angeles Angels (+163, 0.5u; bet to +150)
- Houston Astros F5 (-143, Risk 0.5u) at BallyBet (flat to -150)
- San Diego Padres / St. Louis Cardinals, Under 8 (-115, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars (flat to -117)
- San Francisco Giants / Milwaukee Brewers, Under 8.5 (-115, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -120 or 8, -101)
- Toronto Blue Jays / Boston Red Sox, Under 9 (-106, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -117)
