Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Thursday, August 22.
MLB Predictions Thursday, Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (August 22)
Sean Zerillo's Brewers vs Cardinals MLB Best Bet
Freddy Peralta (RHP, MIL) vs Miles Mikolas (RHP, CIN)
Despite sitting below .500 – with just a 2.2-to-2.6 percent chance to make the playoffs as of Wednesday morning, the Cardinals showed a lot of fight against the division-leading Brewers on Wednesday, rallying against closer Devin Williams, who had been excellent (1.53 xERA, 1.17 xFIP, 38.7% K-BB%, 134 Stuff+) in his first eight appearances since returning from the IL.
After pitching on consecutive days – including Wednesday's stressful outing – Williams will almost certainly be unavailable on Thursday. While I'd typically give the Brewers the bullpen edge over the Cardinals, the Redbirds' key relievers are a bit less tired, comparing usage charts over the past week.
Freddy Peralta (3.85 xERA, 19.3% K-BB%, 103 Stuff+, 100 Pitching+) has gone through a rough stretch over the past month (4.45 ERA, 4.98 xFIP, 9.2% K-BB%) – and I'm beginning to wonder if he's injured.
Peralta's fastball velocity has dipped to a multi-year low (sub 93 mph) twice since the All-Star break, including his last outing against the Cubs.
Moreover, his pitch modeling metrics (96 Stuff+, 94 Location+, 95 Pitching+, 5.05 botERA) over that span are those of a replacement-level starting pitcher.
Usually, I'd project Peralta a few tiers above Miles Mikolas (4.45 xERA, 4.16 xFIP, 12.8% K-BB%), who remains a pitch model darling (career 107 Location+, 102 Pitching+) with excellent command despite posting a 5.04 ERA across 60 starts over the past two seasons.
Still, given Peralta's recent form, the projected gap between them has shrunk.
Bets: Cardinals Full-Game Moneyline (-103 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Reds vs Pirates Best Bet
Nick Lodolo (LHP, CIN) vs Paul Skenes (RHP, PIT)
I have noted Paul Skenes' declining velocity, pitch modeling metrics, and effectiveness in recent starts. Skenes averaged 99.3 mph on his fastball through his first 10 MLB starts but has sat at 97.7 and 97.9 mph in his past two outings:
He's fatigued, and it seems a matter of time before Pittsburgh shuts him down for the season.
Skenes is still a very effective pitcher (especially the first time through the order), even at reduced velocity (3.13 ERA, 3.95 xFIP, 16.7% K-BB%, 93 Stuff+, 97 Pitching+, 4.72 botERA since the All-Star Break). Still, he's not the unhittable force of nature we saw regularly touching triple digits in May and June (2.06 ERA, 2.24 xFIP, 29.3% K-BB%, 112 Stuff+, 109 Pitching+, 2.88 botERA)
I'm down on Skenes, but Nick Lodolo has also struggled of late, with a 7.30 ERA, 4.23 xFIP, and 13.8% K-BB% (19.3% career) across eight starts in July and August since returning from an IL stint for a blister issue.
Lodolo also missed time with a groin injury earlier this season, most of last season with a stress fracture in his tibia, and part of the 2022 season with a back strain; his 6'6" frame seems relatively fragile. Given the command issues in recent starts (12.9% walk rate in the last three outings), I suspect he's dealing with another ailment.
Moreover, the Pirates have performed better against lefties (20th) than righties (29th) all year, especially since the All-Star break (11th and 28th, respectively).
I projected Thursday's total at 7.94 runs.
Bets: Over 7 (7.5, -105 or better)
Sean Zerillo's Astros vs Orioles Prediction, Pick, Odds
Spencer Arrighetti (RHP, HOU) vs Corbin Burnes (RHP, BAL)
Before his last start against the Red Sox – which helped correct his ERA (2.71 at the time), I maintained on the Payoff Pitch Podcast that Corbin Burnes is a tier below the most elite starting pitchers in MLB—like Tarik Skubal and Chris Sale—and closer to a 3.5 ERA true talent arm than a sub-three ERA ace.
Burnes' K-BB% is just about 17% over the past two seasons – down 7% compared to 2022 and 13% against his Cy Young season in 2021. For context, Skubal (24.8%) and Sale (27.9%) rank 1st and 3rd amongst qualified starting pitchers in K-BB%; Burnes is 26th of 61 arms – his strikeout and walk rates are closer to league average.
Moreover, both his called-strike plus whiff rate or CSW% and his Stuff+ ratings have fallen in four consecutive seasons (143, 136, 127, 117), 1
Burnes generates weak contact with an excellent cutter (career .276 BABIP), but you have to rely on good defense to be genuinely dominant with a 54th percentile strikeout rate (97th in 2021, 89th in 2022, 65th in 2023).
Spencer Arrighetti (3.96 xERA, 16.8% K-BB%, 99 Pitching+, 3.76 botERA) has been thriving for the Astros in the second half of his rookie campaign – with three double-digit strikeout efforts in his past nine starts.
The command is spotty, but Arrighetti has a sharp cutter and two plus breaking balls (124 Stuff+ Slider, 112 Curveball) – and could be a menace out of Houston's bullpen in October.
I project these position player groups about the same—offensively (112 vs. 111 wRC+) and defensively.
Houston has the better, more well-rested bullpen. Baltimore used Cionel Perez and Craig Kimbrel on consecutive days, and newly anointed closer Seranthony Dominguez has worked three of four days – serving up a pair of walk-off homers in a series loss to the Mets.
Bets: Astros Full-Game Moneyline (+133 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Bets, Picks, and Predictions for Thursday, August 22
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Here are today’s MLB picks, providing daily picks to help you make informed wagers. The best MLB bets are highlighted to maximize your profits through expert advice and insights. Stay tuned for detailed predictions and forecasts for upcoming MLB games, helping you make informed decisions with our expert analysis.
- Cincinnati Reds / Pittsburgh Pirates, Over 7 (-120, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars (flat to -125 or 7.5, -105)
- Colorado Rockies / Washington Nationals, Over 8.5 (-115, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars (flat to -118 or 9, +100)
- Detroit Tigers / Chicago Cubs, Under 7.5 (+100, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars (flat to -105)
- Houston Astros (+148, 0.75u; bet to +133)
- Philadelphia Phillies / Atlanta Braves, Under 8 (+105, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars (flat to -105)
- St. Louis Cardinals (+105, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -103)
