MLB Predictions Thursday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (July 4)

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The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.

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Here are my favorite bets for Thursday, July 4.

RHP Frankie Montas (CIN) vs. RHP Marcus Stroman (NYY)

Ah, Frankie Montas … barely hanging on in the Major Leagues at the age of 31 after failing to live up to all that potential early in his career. His sinker was once lauded by evaluators — now it's become such an issue for him that he's almost completely abandoned it, throwing more fastballs which have only declined in quality.

Thursday will be his first crack at revenge versus the latest team that was foolish enough to give him a chance — the New York Yankees. Are they hitting the ball well right now? No, they're not. They've still been able to creep up above the league average over the last week with some decent showings, and the biggest story here is that they're still posting excellent strikeout and walk numbers even if they hunt for more home runs in the wake of Giancarlo Stanton's injury.

Well, this may be their lucky day. Montas has worn an awful .416 Expected Slugging through 15 starts this season, and while there's only been eight homers charged to his line, there's plenty of potential here given his uptick in fly balls and continued struggles in limiting hard contact. Best of all, his control has fallen back into the rut we saw early on in his career, walking nearly 10% of all the batters he's faced.

Marcus Stroman, meanwhile, should be well-positioned to hold a lead against a middling Reds offense. They did break out a bit on Wednesday night against Carlos Rodon, but the matchup was far friendlier given this is a team that likes to put the ball in the air — and Rodon has yielded a wealth of fly balls.

Cincinnati is hitting just .224 against ground-ball pitchers, good for 26th in the league, with the 27th-best OPS. Stroman's done nothing but yield grounders, aside from issuing far too many free passes, but given the Reds have displayed poor walk numbers all season, this shouldn't be a matchup I'm too concerned about.

Bet: Yankees First Five Innings -0.5 Runs (-120 at DraftKings)

LHP Framber Valdez (HOU) vs. RHP Chris Bassitt (TOR)

Here, we've got two pitchers that, at least in their present form, I absolutely hate. So, I'll happily grab the over at just 8.5 runs.

Framber Valdez, a Ground Ball Man through and through, simply isn't doing it like he used to. Yes, the ground balls have come in bunches for the two-time All Star, but for a second straight year he's now serving up hard-hit balls at nearly a 50% clip.

He was able to get around some issues on contact with a strikeout rate that was ever so slightly better than the league average, but that number's taken a dive of more than five percentage points to make these issues all the more glaring. Valdez will carry a .259 Expected Batting Average (xBA) into this game against a Blue Jays team that has hit well over the past week despite missing Justin Turner and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for parts of that stretch with a .205 Isolated Power (ISO).

Toronto's fourth-best wRC+ over the last seven days should cast little doubt about its ability to get to a struggling lefty in Valdez, and the fact that strikeouts have seem to be the biggest issue is even more encouraging given Valdez rarely produces those.

I've spent a lot of time talking about why I hate Valdez that I've nearly run out of time to hate on Chris Bassitt. My issues with him are well-documented, but if you'd like a refresher here, this a pitcher that has not struck many guys out and has pitched to a .256 xBA.

He's strikingly similar to Valdez in that sense and will meet a Houston team which also finds itself in the top 10 of the league in wRC+ over the last week, and to make matters a bit stickier, the Astros rank sixth in hitting ground-ball pitchers like him.

Bet: Over 8.5 Runs (-110 at DraftKings | Play to -120)

RHP Michael King (SD) vs. RHP Max Scherzer (TEX)

Michael King does two things: Strike guys out and allow fly balls. That's not a terrible strategy in today's game, to be completely honest, and it's a combination that we see in many of the game's top arms.

Where that can become tricky is when you step into the fourth-friendliest park for home runs against a team that does not strike out. That's what we've got brewing on Thursday in Texas, where the Rangers are carrying a low 19.9% strikeout rate into this one over the last week of play, which is a slight improvement upon an already solid number for the year.

This is a team that loves to put the ball in the air, and over the last week, it has posted a beefy .241 ISO with 12 home runs, falling in love once again with its home park.

Max Scherzer sure does like allowing fly balls, too, if you take a look at his career to this point, but he's actually done that a lot less frequently through his first two starts of the season while flashing that same great strikeout potential with an excellent chase rate.

The strikeouts are sure to come down a bit now that Scherzer's 39 years of age, even if he's still getting plenty of swings out of the zone, so it's important that he's continued to display the ability to pitch to contact over the last few years, taking an xBA of under .210 since 2021 and matching it with a .188 xBA through is first 10 1/3 innings in 2024.

San Diego may not strike out a ton, and Scherzer may not roll up a ton of grounders, but that may wind up working out better considering the Padres own better splits against ground-ball arms.

I think King's in a lot of trouble, particularly with Texas heating up at the dish, so I think this line is a bit too short.

Bet: Rangers ML (-132 at FanDuel | Play to -145)

• Yankees F5 -0.5 (-120, DraftKings)
• Astros Jays Over 8.5 (-110, DraftKings)
• Rangers ML (-132, FanDuel)

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