MLB Predictions Thursday | Picks & Previews (6/20)

Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.

The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.

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Here are my favorite bets for Thursday, June 20.

Zack Littell (TB) vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN)

I initially set the total for this matchup at 7.25 runs when I bet the under on Wednesday afternoon before these teams deployed nine relievers combined in the Rays' 3-2 extra-innings victory. After accounting for bullpen usage, I'd set this total closer to 7.4 runs — adjusting my price target on Under 8 from -119 to -115.

Tampa Bay took the brunt of the workload hit after using seven relievers in a 7-6 loss on Tuesday — Jason Adam, Colin Poche, Phil Maton, and Kevin Kelly all worked for a second consecutive day.

Zack Littell (4.12 xERA, 17.5% K-BB%, 100 Pitching+) and Simeon Woods Richardson (4.04 xERA, 13.7% K-BB%, 101 Pitching+) both own average to above average underlying indicators and pitch modeling metrics. Neither has great stuff, but both pitchers have a high floor, thanks to excellent command.

Littell owns a 3.5% walk rate since the start of last season, the third-lowest mark among starting pitchers (George Kirby 2.5%, Zach Eflin 2.9%).

Both starters should benefit from Thursday's conditions — 66 degrees and rainy at first pitch, with six mph winds blowing in from left-center field, decreasing the run-scoring environment at Target Field by as much as 10% compared to a weather-neutral day.

Bets: Under 8 (-115 or better)

Luis Castillo (SEA) vs. Logan Allen (CLE)

The wind is also blowing in at Progressive Field (5-7 mph from center field), but warmer temperatures (85 degrees at first pitch) should boost the run-scoring environment by as much as 10% compared to a typical day.

That said, I projected this total at 8.09 runs in a matchup between two elite defensive teams with excellent bullpens.

Both teams rank in the top six, per Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), although Outs Above Average (OAA) are less kind (14th and 18th). Cleveland's bullpen ranks first in xFIP, first in K-BB% and 10th in Pitching+ — Seattle ranks inside the top eight by the same three data points (7th, 7th, 8th).

The greatest threat to the Under is a Logan Allen implosion. Allen has justified his 5.30 ERA this season (5.14 xERA, 77 Stuff+, 91 Pitching+), but he does force the Mariners into their lesser split (100 wRC+ vs. righties, 14th; 93 wRC+ vs. lefties, 21st), which has only grown in the past 30 days (106 wRC+ vs. righties, 83 wRC+ vs. lefties).

Bets: Under 8.5 (-116 or better)

Gavin Stone (LAD) vs. Ty Blach (COL)

The Rockies have played a hard-fought series at home against the Mookie Betts-less Dodgers and are a blown ball/strike call away from playing for a series win — instead of a split — on Thursday:

I'm not going to try to sell you on Ty Blach (5.18 xERA, 8.3% K-BB%, 71 Stuff+, 92 Pitching+) as anything more than a replacement-level pitcher.

Gavin Stone (3.98 xERA, 10.8% K-BB%, 97 Stuff+, 99 Pitching+) is closer to a league-average arm, and he forces the Rockies into their lesser split; Colorado has an 82 wRC+ against right-handed pitching (29th).

Still, the line is too wide by my estimation. I projected the Rockies closer to +165 (37.8% implied) — would technically take +179 (35.8% implied) or better — and was able to secure +205 (32.8% implied), an expected edge of 5%.

Over the past two seasons, the Rockies have ranked around league average in terms of defensive value (17th in DRS, 13th per OAA in 2024). Still, they have some strong defenders on their club, including Ezqueil Tovar (+20 DRS since last season), Ryan McMahon (+18), Brenton Doyle (+15), Nolan Jones (+6), and Jake Cave (+5), and rate better than average in my model in terms of defensive value.

Interestingly, Blach (+4 DRS) ranks among the defensive leaders among pitchers over the past two years.

Bets: Rockies Full-Game Moneyline (+180 or better) 

Cole Irvin (BAL) vs. Luis Gil (NYY) 

If Aaron Judge (208 wRC+) is back in the Yankees' lineup, there's substantial value on the moneyline for Thursday's series decider. Judge wanted to play on Wednesday, but manager Aaron Boone seemingly held him out for precautionary reasons after getting hit on the hand on Tuesday. I'd set Judge's status closer to probable than questionable for Thursday's matchup.

Jordan Westburg (137 wRC+) missed Wednesday's matchup for the Orioles after colliding with Juan Soto on Tuesday and is seemingly questionable for Thursday.

Luis Gil (2.75 xERA, 112 Stuff+, 101 Pitching+) held the Orioles scoreless into the seventh inning on May 1. He has ace-level stuff, but his command (95 Location+, 12.3% walk rate) remains concerning.

Gil has the second-highest walk rate among qualified starters. Opponents have difficulty squaring him up (.194 BABIP, 97th percentile in expected batting average), but a patient offense could potentially give him fits.

Cole Irvin (4.38 xERA, 13.3% K-BB%, 82 Stuff+, 97 Pitching+) is an effective innings-eater but profiles as a below-average pitcher or No. 4 starter.

Assuming Westburg is out for Baltimore, I'd set these lines at around -207 for the first five innings (F5) and -171 for the full game if the Yankees play their regular lineup with Judge. However, I'd downgrade those projections to around -180 and -152, respectively, if Judge sits again.

Either way, I show an edge on the Yankees, but it's a substantial edge if Judge plays. There's plenty of motivation to play him to earn a series victory against a divisional rival, and today's news was encouraging.

Bets: Yankees F5 Moneyline (-165 or better) | New York Yankees Full-Game Moneyline  (-140 or better)

Keaton Winn (SFG) vs. Andre Pallante (STL)

MLB has modernized Rickwood Field, changing the dimensions and installing a new batter's eye. The current dimensions (321-399-393-392-332) seemingly blend the build of Kauffman Stadium (330-387-410-387-330) and Great American Ballpark (328-379-404-370-325).

Both are hitters' parks, playing 8-10% higher than a league-average park. Homers are more plentiful in Cincinnati, and Rickwood Field has a similar short-center-field fence. However, Rickwood also has deeper power alleys, such as in Kansas City, and high walls in certain spots, which could lead to increased doubles and triples.

However, while I'd expect this park to benefit hitters on a typical day, winds will blow in from center field on Thursday, potentially neutralizing any offensive enhancements.

These teams feature two of the best bullpens in baseball, ranking third and fourth in xFIP and in the top 10, per K-BB%. Giants relievers have flashed better stuff (108 vs. 101 Stuff+), but the Cardinals have shown superior command (102 vs. 100 Pitching+).

I set this total at 8.3 runs and was able to snag Under 9.5 at open.

Bets: Under 9 (-116 or 8.5, +102 or better)

Zerillo's Bets for Thursday, June 20

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• Arizona Diamondbacks (+128, 0.25u) at WynnBet (small to +120)
• Colorado Rockies (+205, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +180)
• New York Yankees F5 (-145, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -165)
• New York Yankees (-135, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -140)
• San Francisco Giants / St. Louis Cardinals, Under 9.5 (-120, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to 9, -116 or 8.5 ,+102)
• Seattle Mariners / Cleveland Guardians, Under 8.5 (-112, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -116)
• Tampa Bay Rays / Minnesota Twins, Under 8 (-115, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -115)

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