MLB Predictions & Expert Picks for Thursday, October 10

Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.

The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.

My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.

You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.

Here are my MLB predictions and expert picks and previews for the ALDS games on Thursday, October 10.

MLB Futures Update and Divisional Series Prices

Always make sure to check different ways to bet on the same outcome in multiple markets at the same book. You may find an odds discrepancy between two bets, which otherwise express the same thing,

For example, the Game 4 moneyline odds for the ALCS teams leading 2-1 (Tigers and Yankees) should match their odds to win their respective series 3-1 in the correct score market. Moreover, the odds for the teams trailing in those series (Guardians and Royals) to win 3-2 should match their series moneyline odds.

Lastly, the Game 5 moneyline odds for Dodgers–Padres should match their respective series prices.

Regarding the remaining NLDS series, I'd project the Dodgers as a -135 favorite for Game 5 (57.5% implied), assuming a fully healthy lineup with Freddie Freeman and Miguel Rojas. However, I'd lower the projection closer to -120 (54.5% implied) if neither start.

In the ALDS, I project slight value on the Guardians' series price (projected +275, listed +300 at FanDuel) or odds to win their series 3-2. I'd take a poke at +300 or better if I didn't already have a series ticket.

I'd need at least +550 to back the Royals on the brink of elimination, and I doubt the price will get there (+450 at DraftKings).

Sean Zerillo's Guardians vs Tigers MLB Best Bet

Thursday, October 10

6:08 p.m. ET

MAX

Guardians Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
-125	6.5 -115 / -105	-1.5 +143

Tigers Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
+105	6.5 -115 / -105	+1.5 -170

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

RHP Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs RHP Reese Olson (DET)

Tanner Bibee (3.80 xERA, 10.1% K-BB%, 104 Pitching+, 3.68 botERA) helped the Guardians to a Game 1 win with 4 2/3 shutout innings (4 H, 1 BB, 6 K) and will hope to serve as Cleveland's stopper in a must-win Game 4. Thursday will be his sixth appearance against the Tigers this season.

Interestingly, Bibee threw 13 sinkers in Game 1 — his third-most used pitch — despite rarely throwing the pitch throughout his career (0.2% overall and nine total in the 2024 regular season):

The sinker was Bibee's primary weapon at Cal State Fullerton. The Guardians likely had him scrap the pitch in pro ball for philosophical reasons.

Cleveland's pitchers ranked 29th in sinker usage (7.7%) amongst all teams in 2024 compared to second in four-seam fastball rate (38.3%).

The Tigers have performed much better against four-seamers (combined -12 run value, 26th in Pitch Value/100) than sinkers (-28 run value, 30th in Pitch Value /100). I expect Bibee to keep throwing the pitch to the same-sided Tigers' hitters (11-of-13 thrown against right-handed hitters in Game 1).

The sinker was the only pitch Bibee didn't get a whiff on in Game 1 — he's using it to induce weak contact. He used the offering to generate a crucial double play against Spencer Torkelson:

If Bibee continues to throw the sinker, his strikeout ceiling for Game 4 will lower. And with Cleveland in a must-win situation, Stephen Vogt will continue aggressively deploying his elite bullpen.

I'd take a shot on Bibee Under 4.5 strikeouts at plus money (alternatively, Under 5 to -140 and Under 5.5 to -180).

I'll also monitor his outs recorded market, which has yet to open. Those props closed at 5.5 (+110 under) and 14.5 (+120 under) for Game 1, respectively. With the strikeout total down to 4.5 for Game 4, I'd expect the outs prop closer to 12.5 (and would take plus money on the under).

Guardians relievers combined for the final five innings of Tuesday's contest, but only Erik Sabrowski (28 pitches) threw more than 18 pitches. Vogt should have a quicker hook with Bibee than in Game 1 — if he were in the same situation he faced against Torkelson (1st and 2nd, 0 out in the 4th inning), I'd expect Bibee to get lifted for a reliever.

The Tigers will likely use Reese Olson (3.51 xERA, 14.6% K-BB%, 97 Pitching+, 5.01 botERA) in bulk relief in Game 4 after tossing five reasonably effective innings in Game 1.

Olson started in each of his 22 appearances this season. Still, the Tigers decided to use an opener, Brant Hurter, to attempt to neutralize lefty Steven Kwan and flip Jose Ramirez around before handing things over.

However, Olson, who came out of the bullpen for the first time this season (and never inherited a runner in his career), promptly hung a first-pitch breaking ball with runners on 1st and 3rd and nobody out:

After that mistake — in a situation that his manager should never have brought him into — Olson settled in (5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 K) and gave the Tigers some needed length.

A.J. Hinch hopes to avoid using Tarik Skubal in Game 5 and save his ace for Game 1 of the ALCS on Monday instead by clinching the series at home in Game 4. I wouldn't expect Hurter or Beau Brieske (they combined for 5 1/3 innings and 83 pitches in Game 3) to work on consecutive days (Brieske also worked in Game 2). Still, the remainder of Detroit's bullpen should be available in a clincher.

I don't project value on either side of the moneyline. I'd need +115 or better to back Detroit (projected +106).

I set the total at 6.2 runs and would bet the Under to 7 (-122) or 6.5 (-103).

This series has been a rock fight, and cool evening October weather in Detroit (temperatures in the high 50's, low air pressure) should further reduce the run-scoring environment.

Pick: Under 7 (-122 or 6.5, -103 or better)

Yankees vs Royals Prediction, Pick, Odds for ALDS Game 4 on Thursday, October 10Read now

Sean Zerillo's MLB Yankees vs Royals Prediction & Pick

Thursday, October 10

8:08 p.m. ET

MAX

Yankees Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
-155	7.5 -115 / -105	-1.5 +110

Royals Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
+130	7.5 -115 / -105	+1.5 -130

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

RHP Gerrit Cole (NYY) vs RHP Michael Wacha (KC)

Neither Gerrit Cole (3.59 xERA, 17.9% K-BB%, 105 Pitching+, 3.76 botERA) nor Michael Wacha (4.05 xERA, 14.6% K-BB%, 100 Pitching+, 3.42 botERA) were at their best in Game 1.

The right-handed starters also keep both teams in their superior split — New York led MLB with a 120 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, while Kansas City ranked near league average (99 wRC+) but hit better at home (100 wRC+, 7.8% BB%, 17.9% K%) than on the road (92 wRC+, 6.6% BB%, 20.9% K%).

I remain skeptical of both bullpens. Yankees relievers (11th in second-half xFIP, 10th in K-BB%, 13th in Pitching+, 15th in botERA) have a slight advantage over the Royals (14th, 10th, 20th and 12th by the same indicators), but both rated closer to league average and project as the two worst relief units remaining in the playoffs.

The Yankees could use Luis Gil (3.83 xERA, 14.8% K-BB%, 100 Pitching+, 4.24 botERA) as a fireman to close the series. Still, he's started in all 36 of his MLB appearances, and adjusting to new routines in the playoffs can go awry (see Reese Olson in Game 1 against the Guardians).

Also, the Yankees would probably instead save Gil for a potential Game 5 rather than throw Carlos Rodon in a winner-take-all scenario.

I'm tempted by Cole Under 4.5 Strikeouts; the Royals have been extremely difficult to fan at home this season (17.9% K%, 1st in MLB), and Cole's strikeout rate (25.7%) is at its lowest mark since 2017:

The moneyline adjustment for Game 4 of this series, relative to Game 1, appears correct with the same pitching matchup at the other team's home park.

The Yankees closed around -205 (67.2% implied) in Game 1 and opened around -150 (60% implied) for Game 4, and home-field advantage is worth between 3-4% percent (a 6-8% swing if flipping the same game from one home park to another).

Surprisingly, however, the total for Game 4 in Kansas City (7.5) is identical to the total for Game 1 in the Bronx, yet Kansas City is the better ballpark for run scoring.

Over the past three seasons, Yankee Stadium has a league-average Park Factor (100), but Kauffman Stadium ranks fourth (108), a difference of 8% in run expectancy between the two venues.

The weather for Game 4 appears ideal (74 degrees at first pitch, six mph cross breeze), and the umpires between the two contests are slightly hitter-favoring. There's little justification for keeping the total at the same number between the two parks.

Bet the Over to 8, -105. I projected Saturday's Game 1 total at 7.83 runs at Yankees Stadium and made the number 8.42 for Game 4 on Thursday in Kansas City. The Royals used six relievers on Wednesday and were better rested for Game 1.

Wait for +150 or better to back the Royals on the moneyline.

Pick: Over 8 (-105 or better)

Zerillo's MLB Predictions & Picks for Thursday, October 10

• Cleveland Guardians / Detroit Tigers, Under 7 (-120, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -122 or 6.5, -103)
• New York Yankees / Kansas City Royals, Over 7.5 (-105, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to 8, -105)