Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB Playoff futures updates and my preview and pick for Mets vs Brewers Game 3 on Thursday, October 3.
MLB Predictions & Expert Picks for Wild Card Thursday — 10/3
MLB Futures Update and Divisional Series Prices
With three of the four divisional series known, I wanted to provide my series price and prop projections, plus updated future projections for the AL Pennant, NL Pennant and World Series.
I project value on both the Cleveland Guardians (to -130) and the San Diego Padres (to +115) compared to opening odds for these series (-112 and +118, respectively). Unsurprisingly, I'm higher on both teams than the betting market; I liked both from a futures perspective entering the playoffs, too.
I took the Guardians at a number lower than their Game 1 price before Tarik Skubal starts in Game 2 (and potentially Game 5). I'm waiting to bet San Diego on the series line until we get more information about Joe Musgrove, who left his Wild Card start on Wednesday with elbow soreness.
I bet San Diego on the moneyline for Game 1 (projected +110; bet to +120) and was able to grab a better price than their series moneyline. I project the most substantial edge for the Padres in this series at home in Games 3 and 4 (assuming Musgrove starts one of those games).
I'd wait for more information on Musgrove's status (or a better number than their Game 1 line) to bet on their series price before Game 1. Otherwise, I'll just bet the Padres game by game.
I show long-shot value on San Diego to sweep (projected +715, listed +750) or to cover their reverse games spread (-1.5 games projected +225, listed +425 at DraftKings). I align more closely with the markets for Over 4.5 Games in the series (projected +160, listed +160) and Padres +1.5 Games (projected -225, listed -215).
I took the Yankees at +150 (40% implied) to win the AL after the Tigers upset the Astros, eliminating the Yankees' most dangerous ALCS challenger. Moreover, the Yankees get a softer Round 2 matchup than expected – playing Detroit instead of Baltimore. I only wish I had followed my own advice from Monday and taken New York at +190 rather than waiting.
If I show value in a team's series price as we advance, there's likely value in their pennant and World Series futures, too.
Cleveland is the current value team in the AL from a pennant World Series and futures perspective (listed at +370 and +1100, respectively). I'll consider adding their pennant future alongside my series ticket before Game 1 of the ALDS.
San Diego remains the value team in the NL (+400 to win the Pennant, +700 to win the World Series). If we get a positive update on Musgrove, I may add more to my futures position before the NLDS (to +310 Pennant. and +650 World Series, respectively) instead of a series wager.
Zerillo's Mets vs Brewers Game 3 Preview & Over/Under Pick
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +175 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
LHP Jose Quintana (NYM) vs Tobias Myers (MIL)
After a dramatic Wednesday contest, the Mets and Brewers will play the lone winner-take-all Game 3 in the Wild Card round on Thursday. This is New York's eighth game in seven days.
Both teams should be highly aggressive with their bullpens. The Mets will start Jose Quintana (3.75 ERA, 4.49 xERRA, 10.0% K-BB%, 93 Pitching+, 5.20 botERA), who overachieved in his age-35 season thanks to a .263 BABIP (.303 career) and a 78.2% strand rate (73.6% career) — career-best marks in both categories (which typically regress toward career and league averages).
Quintana controls the running game well, permitting just 9-of-11 steal attempts this season and just 87 on 136 attempts, or 63.9% throughout his career.
As a reminder, Milwaukee had the best baserunning team in MLB this season (No. 1 in BsR or Baserunning Runs Above Average), led all teams in sprint speed (28.2 ft/s) and went 17-for-17 on steal attempts against the Mets in six regular season games (0-1 in two playoff games).
Manager Carlos Mendoza will likely avoid Phil Maton (who blew Game 2, his fourth appearance in five days) out of the bullpen. Ryne Stanek is the only Mets reliever who worked in Games 1 and 2, otherwise, their entire relief staff and No. 4 starter David Peterson should be available behind Quintana, who may only see the Brewers' lineup once guaranteed before Mendoza plays it batter by batter the second time through.
Brewers boss Pat Murphy will likely take a similar approach with rookie Tobias Myers (3.00 ERA, 4.11 xERA, 16% K-BB%, 97 Pitching+, 4.47 botERA), who certainly won't see the Mets' lineup a third time (15.4% K-BB%, .667 OPS allowed in 1st PA vs opponent, 17.8% K-BB%, .646 in 2nd, 7.9% K-BB%, .845 in 3rd).
Since Devin Williams (2.08 xERA, 30.7% K-BB%, 139 Stuff+, 3.36 botERA) returned to the bullpen in late July, Milwaukee's relievers rank 3rd in xFIP (3.55), 4th in K-BB% (19.2%), 5th in Pitching+ (103) and 5th in botERA (3.67).
Devin Williams, 82mph Airbender and 94mph Fastball, Overlay. pic.twitter.com/PqVNM89YwR
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 10, 2023
Joel Payamps is the only Brewers reliever who worked in both games of this series. I'd otherwise expect their bullpen to pitch the final five or six innings in this contest.
Both teams have enough middle-relief arms to build a bridge to their elite closers. That said, I wouldn't expect a multi-inning stint from either man.
Williams, who has gotten four outs or more in the past, hasn't worked a multi-inning stint since his return. And Edwin Diaz (2.48 xERA, 29.6% K-BB%, 126 Stuff+, 3.49 botERA) not only tossed 66 pitches combined on Sunday and Monday, but looked worse for wear in the second inning of his second outing while blowing a save against Atlanta.
In a fictional regular-season matchup between these two teams in May, with the same lineups, starting pitchers, bullpens, ballpark, and a neutral umpire, I would set the total around 7.65 runs.
However, after factoring in the bullpens for a more substantial part of an elimination game and adjusting for pitcher-friendly umpire Vic Carapazza (career 207-176-19 to the Under, +$1,702 for a consistent $100 bettor, 4.2% ROI), I projected the total at 6.73 runs.
Bet Under 7.5 to -119 or Under 7 at even money.
We have some added history in winner-take-all elimination games. Since 2005, Unders are 23-15 (+$586, 15.4% ROI) in Game 3 of the Wild Card round, Game 5 of the divisional round or Game 7 in either the LCS or World Series.
I projected the Brewers as -124 favorites and would play their moneyline to -115. However, I'm riding a series ticket (at -130) from before Game 1 and see no reason to add to that position personally.
Zerillo's MLB Predictions & Picks for Thursday, October 3
- New York Mets / Milwaukee Brewers, Under 8 (-120, 0.5u) and Under 7.5 (-105, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to 7.5, -119 or 7, +100)
