Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Thursday, September 12.
MLB Predictions & Expert Picks for Thursday, September 12
Sean Zerillo's MLB Rays vs Guardians Predictions
Ryan Pepiot (TB) vs. Gavin Williams (CLE)
The bullpens for both the Guardians and Rays have become a bit overvalued; in my head, I'd expect both teams to rank near the top of the league (at least top five) in underlying bullpen metrics.
Still, both teams rank closer to the league average this season – particularly since the trade deadline (Rays 12th in xFIP, 8th in K-BB%; Guardians 15th and 14th, respectively).
Rays' relievers rank second in MLB with a 2.62 ERA over that span – and they own elite pitch modeling metrics (3rd in Pitching+, 4th in botERA), too.
However, Cleveland's relievers (15th and 11th, respectively) seemingly fatigued after a dominant first half (1st in xFIP, 2nd in K-BB%).
Progressive Field has been one of baseball's best "Over" parks this season (38-26-4, 59.4% win, +$1,063 for a consistent $100 bettor, 15.6% ROI). It has shown an increased park factor (106, up from 94) since the offseason removal of shipping containers in right field.
Left-handed hitters have a 123 Home Run Factor in Cleveland this season, compared to a mark of 93 from 2021-2023.
I projected Thursday's total at 8.23 runs.
Bets: Over 7.5 (-118 or 8, +100 or better)
Sean Zerillo's Red Sox vs Yankees MLB Picks
Cooper Criswell (BOS) vs. Nestor Cortes Jr. (NYY)
Yankee Stadium has a reputation as a hitters' park due to its short porch in right field. While the park enhances home runs for left-handed hitters (121 home run factor for lefties since 2022, 3rd in MLB), the overall run-scoring environment is 96 (four percent below league average) in its history and 100 (league average) since 2022.
I projected Thursday's total at Yankee Stadium at 8.08 runs, compared to 8.62 on a typical day; cool temperatures (70 degrees by midgame), low air pressure, and a cross breeze away from the short porch should reduce the overall run-scoring environment.
Moreover, this game fits an Action Labs Pro system for Under bettors:
I have more confidence in Nestor Cortes Jr. (3.69 xERA, 17.1% K-BB%, 101 Pitching+, 3.88 botERA) than Cooper Criswell (4.19 xERA, 10.0% K-BB%, 99 Pitching+, 3.56 botERA) but both bullpens are a bit shaky: the Yankees are 9th in second-half xFIP, 18th in K-BB%, 16th in Pitching+ while the Red Sox are 22nd, 22nd, and 12th respectively.
Still, both offenses have been cold of late – ranking 21st (91 wRC+, Yankees) and 25th (78 wRC+, Red Sox) over the past two weeks.
Bets: Under 9 (8.5, -105 or better) | Yankees F5 Moneyline (-161 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Rangers vs Mariners Best Bets
Kumar Rocker (TEX) vs. Bryce Miller (SEA)
One of the best pitching prospects in the minors, former Vanderbilt star Kumar Rocker, will make his MLB debut on Friday.
Rocker was the breakout star of the 2019 College World Series, helping Vanderbilt to a National Championship as a freshman.
The Mets selected Rocker 10th overall in the 2021 draft but revoked their offer after reviewing his medical file. Rocker subsequently had shoulder surgery and pitched in independent ball for a season, and Texas drafted him third overall (as a below-slot signing) in 2022.
Tommy John surgery interrupted Rocker's 2023 campaign – something the Mets likely anticipated. Still, he returned better in 2024, posting a dominant seven-game sample between Double-A and Triple-A before his callup: 29 2/3 IP, 13 H, 3 R, 4 BB, 47 K.
The 6'5, 245-pound righty owns a powerful fastball (touches 99 mph) and a useful curveball and changeup, but the wipeout slider (70-grade) is his money pitch:
Only three projection systems offer publicly available forecasts for Rocker as of Wednesday night: Steamer (3.49 FIP), ppERA (4.07), and ZIPS (4.61 FIP).
The midpoint of that range isn't far off from how those exact forecasts (and others) project Bryce Miller (projected FIP range of 3.82 to 4.15).
Miller (3.83 xERA, 17.8% K-BB%, 105 Pitching+, 3.20 botERA) has proven himself a league-average starting pitcher with significant upside; I expect Rocker to do the same quickly.
I projected the Rangers closer to +120 in this matchup.
Bets: Rangers Full-Game Moneyline (+129 or better)
Sean Zerillo's Brewers vs Giants MLB Predictions & Picks
Frankie Montas (MIL) vs. Hayden Birdsong (SFG)
Hayden Birdsong has continually posted high strikeout rates (34.4% in the minors, 27.5% in MLB), but his explosive stuff (111 Stuff+ figure) comes with shaky command (91 Location+, 10.1% walk rate in the minors, 15% in MLB).
Birdsong sits around 96 mph with his fastball, and models love his changeup (153 Stuff+, 18.2% usage), slider (121, 18.9%) and curveball (116, 20.2%). Still, the fastball (.450 xwOBA) and slider (.351) have both gotten hammered, while the curve (.187, 25K) and changeup (.253, 13 K) have shown promise.
Birdsong has obvious upside if he can ever harness his command. Even with the high walk rate, he owns a better K-BB% (12.4%) than Montas (11%), and their xERA figures (4.90 and 4.60, respectively) are in the same tier.
Projection systems currently view Birdsong as a No. 5 starter (projected FIP range of 4.55 to 4.92), but I align with the betting market in the first five innings (F5); yet I show value on the full-game moneyline, where the Giants bullpen (4th in xFIP, 10th in K-BB%, 8th in botERA) matches up favorably with the Brewers (12th, 13th, 2nd, respectively).
Bets: Giants Full-Game Moneyline (+110 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, September 12
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Boston Red Sox / New York Yankees, Under 9 (-113, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to 8.5, -105)
- Cincinnati Reds (+152, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to +145)
- Colorado Rockies (+270, 0.25u; small to +220)
- New York Yankees F5 (-155, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM (flat to -161)
- San Francisco Giants (+118, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +110)
- Tampa Bay Rays / Cleveland Guardians, Over 7.5 (-112, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -118 or 8, +100)
- Texas Rangers (+140, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to +129)
