All 15 MLB teams play baseball today, and our Action Network staff has put together a trio of best bets. Nick Shlain is playing a total in Royals vs. Rockies, Doug Ziefel is betting a player prop in Braves vs. Diamondbacks, and Tanner McGrath has a first-five inning moneyline play for Sunday Night Baseball between the Yankees and Dodgers. Find their expert MLB picks and analysis below.
TODAY MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
  | ||
  | ||
  | ||
| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Rockies vs. Royals
Sunday, June 4 2:10 p.m. ET MLB.tv |
Over 9 -105  |
By Nick Shlain
This game isn’t taking place at Coors Field, but we still should see some offensive fireworks. The Rockies offense is 27th in all of baseball with an average of just 3.81 runs per game on the road this season, but they are facing Royals starter Brady Singer in this one.
Singer has a 5.06 xFIP this season and has allowed a .218 ISO to right-handed hitters and .252 ISO to left-handed hitters this season. The Royals are averaging 4.29 runs per game at home this season, and they’re facing Rockies starter Kyle Freeland here.
Freeland has a 5.22 xFIP and has allowed a .214 ISO to right-handed hitters this year. The Royals have the third-worst bullpen by ERA in all of baseball at 4.81, and the Rockies have the eighth-worst bullpen by ERA at 4.39.
The Royals’ home ballpark certainly isn’t Coors Field, but there should be plenty of runs in this game. Back the Kansas City Royals and Colorado Rockies to go over 9 runs at -105 on FanDuel.
Pick: Over 9 Runs (-105) |
Braves vs. Diamondbacks
Sunday, June 4 4:10 p.m. ET ESPN+ |
Zac Gallen Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-140) |
By Doug Ziefel
Zac Gallen has established himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball. He is on his way to posting the best season of his young career, as he is among the top five in wins, ERA and WHIP while also ranking among the top 10 in strikeouts.
This afternoon, he'll face a challenge against the Atlanta Braves. No team in the majors makes more hard contact than Atlanta, but with all that power, there is some swing-and-miss. The Braves are 15th in Team Strikeout Rate but have eight hitters on their roster with above-average Strikeout Rates.
In addition to the matchup, Gallen has proven time and time again that this strikeout total is too low. He has gone over this total in nine of 12 starts this season, which adds to a hit rate of 60.5% over his last 43 starts.
That over rate gives us implied odds of -152 that he'll go over again today. Back the surging Gallen because good pitching beats good hitting.
Pick: Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-140) |
Yankees vs. Dodgers
Sunday, June 4 7 p.m. ET ESPN+ |
Dodgers F5 ML (-150) |
These are two of the hardest-hitting offenses in baseball. You can nitpick about which one is better, and we could dive deep in home/road and pitch splits, but I ultimately make the offensive matchup a wash.
I'd likely give the Yankees a slight bullpen advantage, but they used Clay Holmes, Michael King and Wandy Peralta in Saturday's win.
I'd also give the Yankees a slight defensive advantage, but it's close. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have a monster base-running advantage, given they're first in Fangraphs' BsR rankings while the Yankees are 22nd.
This is a very close matchup between two of the best teams in baseball and very worthy of the Sunday Night Baseball stage.
However, I'm all in on Bobby Miller and am willing to fade Domingo German in a matchup with Bright Lights.
I'm impressed by German's decision-making and improvements, but he still profiles as a mid-4.00s ERA pitcher with questionable pitching model metrics (95 Stuff+, 98 Pitching+).
Meanwhile, Miller is the real deal. His 115 Pitching+ mark is insanity, even through two starts. But it backs up the eye test, so I don't think it's a small sample-size abnormality.
At the minimum, we can project Miller as a half-run better than German over the course of a full season. However, I'm willing to venture the gap could be much wider.
Consequently, I'm willing to place a bet on that. In a relatively even matchup, I'll bet on Miller over German and take the Dodgers at home in the early frames at -150 to win the first five innings.
Pick: Dodgers F5 ML (-150 | Play to -160) |
