It's Saturday!
May 13 brings us a jam-packed, 15-game MLB slate, so we've decided to break up the best bets into two separate files — afternoon and evening. There are several intriguing afternoon games today and our betting experts have found value in Rays vs. Yankees and Braves vs. Blue Jays.
Here are our best bets from the afternoon MLB slate on Saturday, May 13th.
Saturday Afternoon MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Rays vs. Yankees
Saturday, May 13 1:05 p.m. ET MLB Network |
Rays Moneyline (-135)  |
By D.J. James
The starting pitching matchup in this American League East matchup is a good one as Shane McClanahan squares off with Nestor Cortes Jr. McClanahan has had a Cy Young-caliber start to 2023 and although Cortes has taken a step back, his peripherals are indicative of forthcoming success.
Outside of the bullpen, the Yankees have no edges in this game, so taking McClanahan and the Rays slightly juiced is a good deal.
McClanahan owns a 1.76 ERA against a 2.85 xERA. He ranks in the 59th percentile in Average Exit Velocity, but that doesn't tell the entire story, as he ranks in the 72nd in Hard Hit Rate. He is even better in other metrics with a 94th percentile Whiff Rate, 91st percentile Chase Rate and an xwOBA of .266. He is clearly the better starter in this game.
The Rays are also crushing left-handed pitching. They only have a 6.5% walk rate, but they have a .930 OPS and a 159 wRC+ off southpaws this season. Tampa Bay has seven hitters with a xwOBA over .370 off lefties, so it could potentially force Cortes to struggle early.
Cortes is still an incredibly reliable arm in the Yankees rotation. He has a 4.74 ERA, but his xERA is 3.48 and much more in line with what fans have grown accustomed to in recent seasons.
He ranks in the middle of the pack in Average Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Rate. His xwOBA is sub-.295, and his walk rate is still below 7%. That said, nothing jumps off of the page when comparing his profile to McClanahan’s.
McClanahan vs. Cortes is the story here.
Cortes should bounce back to his typical form, but the Yankees have too many key injuries, which will hinder their lineup’s success. The Rays have crushed lefty pitching, whereas the Yankees sometimes don't show up when needed. Take Tampa Bay at -135, and play it to -155.
Pick: Rays Moneyline |
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QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Braves vs. Blue Jays
Saturday, May 13 3:07 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Braves Moneyline (+100)  |
By D.J. James
Bryce Elder has been getting lucky with a 1.74 ERA and a 4.30 xERA this season. However, he will be facing José Berríos, who is one of the most up-and-down starting pitchers in the Majors. Berríos owns a 4.91 ERA and a 5.03 xERA, so Elder is still better, despite Berríos having a string of solid starts to round out the month of April. Elder will surely fall off a bit as he ranks in the eighth percentile in Average Exit Velocity, but he's still the better option in this matchup.
The Blue Jays have been slightly better against right-handers this season with a 110 wRC+ (the Braves have a 103 wRC+). However, Atlanta has a better walk rate (10.4% versus 9.1%), which could negate one of Berríos’ typical edges over opponents. In addition, Atlanta has a similar OPS off of righties (.749) compared to Toronto (.746). Since these discrepancies are negligible, Atlanta has the better odds with a better starter on the bump.
Lastly, Atlanta’s bullpen has been slightly better (3.74 xFIP) than Toronto’s (3.81 xFIP). The Braves relievers are also striking out more hitters and walking fewer than the Blue Jays.
Overall, it is really tough to back Berríos when he is up against a formidable lineup. These teams have comparable numbers, but the Braves have been a little better in most areas and shouldn't be underdogs. Take Atlanta from +100 and play it to -125.
Pick: Braves Moneyline |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
