It's another loaded Tuesday in Major League Baseball. All 30 teams are in action and all 15 games take place under the lights.
Our MLB analysts are keyed in on three matchups in particular, with five bets to recommend in all. They're on Red Sox vs. Guardians, Cardinals vs. Rangers and Cubs vs. Angels.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Tuesday, June 6th.
Tuesday's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Red Sox vs. Guardians
Tuesday, June 6 7:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Red Sox ML (-103)  |
Shane Bieber has fallen quite far from his Cy Young in 2020, when he struck out 41.1% of hitters and had a K-BB% over 30%. It's been a steady decline in both results and underlying stuff since then. His strikeout rate dipped to 25% last season and his Stuff+ dipped below average.
Bieber has fallen even further this year to the point where his fastball registers just an 80 Stuff+ and his strikeout rate is in the 15th percentile in MLB. The Guardians right-hander has a below-average projected ERA based on his stuff and is the worse starting pitcher in this matchup.
James Paxton had one blow-up start against the Angels, but the Red Sox lefty has seen an uptick in velocity and strikeouts since returning to the rotation. He's given up a few too many homers thus far, but that's noisy in small samples and now Paxton faces a lineup that is bottom three in xSLG and xwOBA in the league.
Boston is comparatively in the top 10 in most offensive categories. With the better starting pitcher and much better lineup, I'll take Boston at -110 or better on Tuesday night in Cleveland.
Pick: Red Sox ML (-103)
Red Sox vs. Guardians
Tuesday, June 6 7:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
James Paxton Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105) |
By Nick Shlain
James Paxton has made four starts this season so far and has a 33% strikeout percentage. He’s completed at least five innings in three of his four starts, but has only gone over this number in two of his starts.
The Cleveland Guardians don’t seem to be a good strikeout matchup for Paxton. Cleveland’s projected lineup has a combined 20% strikeout percentage against left-handed pitching this season. Only Josh Bell, Gabriel Arias and Mike Zunino have at least a 20% strikeout percentage against left-handed pitching this season.
Paxton has only completed six innings in one of his four starts so far. The combination of Paxton not working deep into games and the Guardians' lack of heavy strikeout hitters bodes well for the under here.
Pick: James Paxton Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)
Cardinals vs. Rangers
Tuesday, June 6 8:05 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Rangers Team Total Over 4.5 (-135)  |
By D.J. James
Betting on Dane Dunning and his concerning peripherals against the St. Louis Cardinals is probably not a wise choice, which is why while I like the Rangers in this matchup, I'm focused on the other side of things.
Dunning and the Rangers will face Matthew Liberatore, who has contributed to the Cardinals' overall pitching woes of late. He has a 4.91 ERA against a 6.11 xERA. In three starts, he has allowed six earned runs over 11 innings, which is particularly bad when you consider that those starts came against the Cleveland Guardians and the Milwaukee Brewers.
The Rangers are the best-hitting team in the MLB over the last month, and they have specifically triumphed over left-handed pitching. They have a 9.9% walk rate and a 18% strikeout rate with a team OPS over .900 and a wRC+ of 153. They have seven starting hitters above a .330 xwOBA off of southpaws, too.
In addition to Liberatore’s tough May, the Cardinals bullpen has also been subpar with a 4.33 xFIP and 10.4% walk rate. Liberatore also has six walks in those 11 innings, so this does not bode well for the Cardinals faithful.
Texas should trounce him early, and if they do not cover their total when he is still in the game, the St. Louis bullpen will yield more runs.
Take the Texas over to 5 and -133.
Pick: Rangers Team Total Over 4.5 (-135)
Cardinals vs. Rangers
Tuesday, June 6 8:05 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
First 5 Innings Over 5.5 (-103) |
By Kenny Ducey
Matt Liberatore and Dane Dunning are two names with some amount of value, which is why many might scoff at a total this high. There are plenty of reasons to like both offenses in this spot though, even with the Cardinals struggling of late.
Dunning’s holding tight to a 2.06 ERA through 48 innings, but the underlying numbers would indicate he’s been a bit worse than that. The right-hander has pitched to a .278 expected batting average on his sinker – his primary pitch – and the Cardinals happen to rank inside the top five in baseball in weighted runs per 100 sinkers.
On top of that, Liberatore will be going up against a red-hot Rangers team ranked second in wRC+ over the last 14 days and third in wRC+ to lefties. The Rangers are also seventh in pitch value against the curveball, which is the pitch that has many evaluators excited about Liberatore.
Liberatore’s yet to do much of anything at the big-league level in 45 2/3 innings and hasn’t had a great run in the minors over the last two seasons, either. I think this is a very difficult matchup for him, and that’s reason enough to take the Over here through the first five.
Pick: First 5 Innings Over 5.5 (-103)
Cubs vs. Angels
Tuesday, June 6 9:38 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Dansby Swanson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)  |
By Nick Martin
Tyler Anderson has been one of the worst regular starters in baseball this season, and there are not many compelling arguments why his results will improve. He has pitched to an xERA of 4.99 and rates below average in both Stuff+ and Location+.
Right-handed batters have had their way with Anderson, slugging .535 and batting .306. Anderson has struck out only 13% of right-handed batters faced this season, which is the third-lowest mark of any pitcher to throw 20 or more innings.
This is a matchup where we want to target some righties doing damage, and Swanson fits the bill at +120. He has slugged .491 versus left-handed pitchers this season with an .878 OPS. Since May 27, Swanson has slugged .545 in 33 at-bats.
Outside of the high percentage of the time Swanson could walk versus Anderson, this matchup sets up well and anything better than +110 is worthy of a bet.
Pick: Dansby Swanson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
