With all 30 MLB teams in action on Sunday, May 28, there's plenty of betting value across the board today. Our MLB betting analysts have locked in on a pair of first-five inning bets this afternoon.
First, Nick Shlain has a pick ready for the matchup between the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox. Then Charlie DiSturco has a bet when the Seattle Mariners host the Pittsburgh Pirates later this afternoon. Find their expert MLB picks and analysis below.
TODAY MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tigers vs. White Sox
Sunday, May 28 1:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
White Sox F5 -108  |
By Nick Shlain
One of my favorite bets on the slate for Sunday is the Chicago White Sox first five innings moneyline at -108 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
The White Sox are in Detroit to face the Tigers, and that’s been a really good matchup for Chicago starting pitcher Dylan Cease over the course of his career. Cease has faced Detroit 13 times, and in those starts he’s 10-1 with a 1.72 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He has 88 strikeouts in 73 and ⅓ innings against the Tigers in his career. The White Sox have the second-worst bullpen ERA in all of baseball at 5.28, but you don’t have to worry about their bullpen in the first five innings.
Eduardo Rodriguez will take the ball for the Tigers, and he has had a strong season so far with a 2.19 ERA. However, Rodriguez has also clearly been pitching above his head. His xFIP is over a full run higher at 3.57. He’s due for regression and has already started to regress as he’s allowed at least four runs in each of his last two starts.
He also hasn’t gone more than five innings in each of his last two starts. Before that he had completed at least six innings in five out of his last six starts.
Cease owns the Tigers, and with Rodriguez due to continue giving up runs, the White Sox should get out to a lead in the first half of this one.
Pick: White Sox First-5 Inning Moneyline -108 |
Pirates vs. Mariners
Sunday, May 28 4:10 p.m. ET ESPN+ |
Pirates F5 +0.5 or F5 ML |
It’s Marco Gonzales Day, so what’s an MLB best bets article without a fade of the left-hander?
Gonzales is nothing more than a replacement-level pitcher at this point. He doesn’t generate many swings and misses, and his Strikeout Rate remains in the bottom 10% of all pitchers. He’s been tattooed to the tune of a .290 xBA and .450 xSLG.
While he’s limiting home runs and barrels — in the 63rd percentile — Gonzales is also posting his worst Walk Rate of his career. Opponents are seeing the southpaw more easily, and without an overpowering fastball, Gonzales is prone to being hit hard.
While the Pirates offense has struggled a bit in recent weeks, they remain a top-10 offense in wRC+ against left-handed pitching. That’s better than the Padres, Yankees, Dodgers, Mets and Blue Jays, among others!
Pittsburgh strikes out at the seventh-lowest rate and walks at the sixth-highest. The Pirates aren’t a power-hitting offense (17th in ISO vs. LHP), rather they put the ball in play and often put pressure on the opposition.
Luis Ortiz will start opposite Gonzales, and he will look to build off an impressive 7 2/3 innings of two-run ball against the Rangers last week. It’s been a small sample size, but he has a high-90s fastball and generates a lot of chases on his slider and changeup.
I am more optimistic about Ortiz in the long run. His 7.32 xERA is inflated after just three starts, and other metrics — like a 4.44 FIP — show Ortiz’s likely placement. Most major projections have the 24-year-old in that mid-to-high 4s, ERA-wise.
This pitching matchup is pretty even, and the offensive edge slightly favors the Pirates given their success against left-handed pitching. With Seattle’s strong bullpen, I’m targeting the Pirates’ First Five-Inning price between Ortiz and Gonzales.
I would back Pittsburgh F5 +0.5 up to (-125) or would play the F5 ML at anything plus money. Fade Gonzales once again here in a prime matchup for Pittsburgh’s bats to get going after a silent Saturday afternoon.
Pick: Pirates F5 +0.5 or F5 ML |
