Thursday's MLB slate is light with just six games on the schedule, but our betting experts are always able to find actionable angles and they did so once again.
Our MLB best bets for Thursday, May 11, feature plays on the Padres vs. Twins and Rays vs. Yankees games. So, let's get right into the picks.
Thursday's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
  | ||
| ||
  | ||
| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Padres vs. Twins
Thursday, May 11 1:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Padres Moneyline (-115)  |
Bailey Ober has been incredible across his first three starts this year, and he was good in his 11 starts last season. But he’s due for a good amount of regression (0.98 ERA, 3.01 xERA), and I’m still unsure what to make of the youngster, especially after his season was cut short due to injury last year.
Meanwhile, we know what we’re getting with Yu Darvish. He’s one of the more consistent arms in the league, boasts a deep arsenal and has both an ERA and xERA in the low 3.00s.
However, I’m mostly betting on the rest of the Padres today.
The Twins’ offense is bad. They started badly and have the third-worst OPS over the past two weeks. I’ve been very unimpressed by this lineup.
Meanwhile, the Padres are waking up. Juan Soto is starting to heat up and Fernando Tatis Jr. has been solid (117 OPS+). The Padres have the fifth-best OPS and fourth-best wRC+ over the past two weeks.
The Padres also have a significant advantage on defense, especially by Outs Above Average (Padres second with +11, Twins 25th with -8).
And the Padres have the advantage in the bullpen. I like Minnesota’s relief pieces, but they haven’t put it altogether and rank 22nd in reliever xFIP over the past two weeks. Meanwhile, the Padres are top 10 in that stat during the same stretch.
Ultimately, I’m tired of fading the Padres and think this is the perfect opportunity to back San Diego.
I think it’s worth backing them at anything better than about (-140).
Pick: Padres Moneyline | Play to -140 |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Padres vs. Twins
Thursday, May 11 1:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Padres Over 4 Runs (-115)  |
By Nick Shlain
The San Diego Padres offense hasn’t totally clicked yet this season. San Diego is scoring 4.19 runs per game, which ranks 24th in the league.
However, the Padres have fared a bit better on the road as they’re 10th in the league, scoring 5.00 runs per game away from home. One of my favorite bets on Thursday's slate is the Padres to go over their team total of four runs.
Minnesota Twins starter Bailey Ober has been fantastic to start the season. Ober has a 0.98 ERA through three starts, but his xFIP is much higher at 4.57. Ober is due for regression and the Padres seem like a good matchup for that to happen.
Ober has allowed just a .217 BABIP and has stranded 87% of runners. In his career, Ober has allowed a .281 BABIP and stranded 77% of runners. While Ober’s ERA is below 1.00, I project him to have a 4.40 ERA for the rest of the season. I’m projecting the Padres to score five runs here and go over their total.
Pick: Padres Over 4 Runs |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Rays vs. Yankees
Thursday, May 11 7:05 p.m. ET MLB Network |
Yankees Moneyline (+110) |
By Sean Zerillo
Strikeout rate tends to stabilize quicker than other statistics. Through seven starts, Domingo German has posted a 28.2% strikeout rate — the highest mark since his rookie season — while using his curveball — his best pitch — more than ever.
Since 2018, German’s curveball has carried a whiff rate of around 40%, with a sub-.200 expected batting average. Over that span, he tossed the pitch 36.4% of the time — the fourth-highest rate amongst more than 100 qualified starters who throw a curve. On a per-pitch basis, German's curveball ranked 14th in that group. However, he's relying on it even more this season.
Neither his fastball nor his sinker is particularly effective. Still, German does have a plus changeup and I wonder if he'll eventually deploy it more against lefties. He should consider doing so against the Rays, who have mashed against four-seamers, sinkers and cutters, but rank far closer to average against off-speed offerings.
The Rays are also due for significant offensive regression as they boast a league-leading .371 wOBA, which is 18 points above their expected mark (.353 xwOBA or expected weighted on-base average). Conversely, the Yankees have underperformed by a similar amount (.302 wOBA, .328 xwOBA) and are due for better luck over the remainder of the season.
I give the Rays the starting pitching advantage as I put Drew Rasmussen (3.06 xERA) a tier or two ahead of German (4.20 xERA), but I’m far less certain that they have a significant bullpen advantage. Shockingly, the Rays bullpen ranks 28th in K-BB% and 27th in xFIP (4.68). Meanwhile, the Yankees have a top-10 bullpen by both measurements.
While I set Rasmussen and the Rays as first-half favorites (-114 for the first five innings), I expect the Yankees to win the game 50.8% of the time (-103 implied odds). Bet the Yankees down to +105.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline | Play to +105 |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
