Ladies and gentlemen, the weekend.
Friday begins an incredibly intriguing weekend in Major League Baseball. The Rays and Yankees begin their first series of the season, as do the Padres and Dodgers. We also have a 2022 playoff rematch in Astros vs. Mariners, and a host of other action across the board.
Our analysts are targeting three Friday games, including two of the aforementioned matchups. Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Friday, May 5th.
MLB Best Bets on Friday, May 5
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
  | ||
  | ||
  | ||
| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Blue Jays vs. Pirates
Friday, May 5 6:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Chris Bassitt Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+124)  |
By Nick Shlain
Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Chris Bassitt has been a consistent strikeout pitcher for many years. In each season since 2018, Bassitt has posted a 20% strikeout percentage or better.
Bassitt has a 19.7% strikeout percentage this year and my projections have him for a 19.6% strikeout percentage for the rest of the season. The Pittsburgh Pirates aren’t a very heavy strikeout team as their projected lineup has a combined 22% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season. Still, Pittsburgh does have five hitters in their projected lineup with a strikeout percentage above 22% against right-handed pitching this season.
Bassitt has struck out at least five batters in four of his last five starts after striking out zero batters in his first start of the season. Bassitt has completed at least six innings in four of his last five starts and struck out seven batters while only completing five innings in his last start.
Bassitt should be able to complete five or six innings here and if he does that he should cruise to the over.
Pick: Chris Bassitt Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+124)
Yankees vs. Rays
Friday, May 5 6:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Rays F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-115)  |
By Jim Turvey
Jhony Brito draws the unenviable task of trying to slow down the Death Star that is the 2023 Tampa Bay Rays offense on Friday.
The Rays don't just have the best offense in baseball (146 wRC+), they have the best offense in baseball in almost almost category. They have the best offense in baseball against right-handed pitchers. They have the best offense in baseball against fastballs. They have the best home offense in baseball. All of these are relevant on Friday, as they play host to Brito and the Yankees.
And Brito is not the guy to stop these trends from continuing. Of the 138 pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched this season, Brito has the 122nd-ranked strikeout minus walk rate and 118th-ranked xFIP. He has decent velocity, but that's about it, and the Rays lineup, starting with Yandy Diaz at the top and his league-leading wRC+ against righties, is tailormade to ruin his night.
Only a few books have this bet as of writing, but bettors can get the Rays team total over 2.5 -115 at DraftKings, or over 3.5 +165 at PointsBet. I would play over 2.5 to -130 and over 3.5 to +140.
Pick: Rays F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-115)
Astros vs. Mariners
Friday, May 5 10:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Astros +116 |
Luis Castillo has improved his strikeout rate and cut his walk rate to begin the 2023 season, but it’s come with a noticeable drop in his velocity. This is commonplace for Castillo, who usually takes April and May in the cold weather to ramp up to his peak stuff in June and July. While his fastball is sitting 95 instead of 97, though, his Stuff+ is below average and much more hittable.
It feels like only a matter of time before Houston’s lineup figures it out. Alex Bregman hasn’t been slugging at all, José Abreu looks lost at the plate and the Astros are a bottom five offense in barrel rate and actually have a lower wRC+ than Oakland.
Seattle has its offensive issues too, though, and the increased strikeout rate of Teoscar Hernandez and increased chase rate of Julio Rodriguez are zapping a lot of needed power from this lineup. Cristian Javier has been mostly fine in the early season — he’s given up a few too many homers — but his peripherals, Stuff+ ratings and whiff rates are all in line with last year’s numbers. His fastball is getting hit really hard, but the numbers show it to be more of a blip than anything else or truly concerning.
Houston still projects to be the considerably better lineup, and the Astros have an extra off day here as well. It’s a great spot to sell high on Castillo until his velocity returns. With comparable pitchers and a better projected lineup, I’ll take the Astros as an underdog.
Pick: Astros +116
