Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, provide expert MLB predictions, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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Here are my favorite bets for Tuesday, August 13.
MLB Predictions Tuesday, Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (August 13)
Sean Zerillo's Royals vs. Twins MLB Prediction, Pick & Preview: Bet Zebby Matthews on Moneyline
Seth Lugo (KCR) vs. Zebby Matthews (MIN)
The Twins will promote their No. 6 prospect, Zebby Matthews, on Tuesday to make his MLB debut and hopefully provide a lift for their starting rotation after the concerning Joe Ryan injury news; I wouldn't expect to see Ryan again in 2024.
Matthews- an eight-round pick out of Western Carolina in 2022 – has posted an impressive 114 strikeouts against seven walks (1.8% walk rate) in 97 minor league innings this season (28.6% K-BB%).
Moreover, the righty flashed above-average pitch modeling metrics in Triple-A (101 Stuff+, 109 Location+, 107 Pitching+).
Matthews has a starter's build (6'5, 225 lbs) and can touch the upper 90s with his fastball as part of a five-pitch arsenal, but the command is his carrying tool.
Matthews is developing a split change to neutralize left-handed hitters, but mixing his cutter, sweeper, and curveball should be enough to keep same-handed hitters off balance. Limiting walks provides an extremely high floor.
Projections put Matthews between a 3.99 and 4.55 rest-of-season FIP; I'd expect him to finish near that range's midpoint (4.25-4.3).
Seth Lugo (2.72 ERA, 3.95 xERA, 98 Stuff+, 100 Location+, 100 Pitching+, 4.42 botERA) projects as the better arm (projected rest-of-season FIP range of 3.96 to 4.37), but the gap isn't drastic – Matthews should be immediately effective.
At a neutral park, Minnesota would have a clear offensive advantage (projected 116 vs. 96 wRC+ against a right-handed starter).
To reiterate some points from this space on Monday, Kansas City ranks 13th at home (108 wRC+) against 24th on the road (88 wRC+) offensively. It has the lowest strikeout rate in MLB and a near-average walk rate at home, compared to rankings of 5th and 29th, respectively, away from Kauffman Stadium.
Moreover, Minnesota has the bullpen advantage, too (projected 3.66 vs. 3.95 Model Weighted ERA for Tuesday) – ranking 8th and 9th, respectively, by both xFIP and K-BB% this season.
In contrast, the Royals have had a bottom five unit by both metrics (26th in xFIP, 29th in K-BB%) and have only marginally improved (21st and 25th, respectively) in a brief sample with their trade deadline additions.
Bets: Twins Full-Game Moneyline (-120 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Padres vs. Pirates Best Bet: Finally Time To Fade The Padres
Luis L. Ortiz (PIT) vs. Michael King (SDP)
Michael King (3.43 xERA, 93 StufF+, 102 Location+, 100 Pitching+, 3.75 botERA) is beginning to show cracks in his profile after surpassing his career high in innings pitched in July. The reliever turned starter – traded to San Diego this winter as part of the Juan Soto deal – has tossed 129 1/3 innings this season, compared to 104 2/3 last season, 51 in 2022, and 63 1/3 in 2021.
The Padres have begun monitoring Kings' workload—skipping a turn around the All-Star break—and his pitch modeling metrics have dipped over the past thirty days (84 Stuff+, 97 Location+, 94 Pitching+, 4.46 botERA) despite solid game logs.
The Stuff+ ratings on three of his four pitches have declined over that span (the slider, from 124 on the season to 115), and his command has worsened.
King permitted four runs on six hits (2 BB, 7 K) last Wednesday in Pittsburgh.
Luis L. Ortiz (4.09 xERA, 103 Stuff+, 101 Location+, 100 Pitching+, 3.99 botERA) has pitched well despite a below-average strikeout rate. And he's shown better command as a starting pitcher (11.2% K-BB%, 4.61 xFIP) than as a reliever (10.4%, 4.75 xFIP).
Projections don't view Ortiz anywhere near his current indicators (projected FIP range of 4.43 to 4.84); they think he's a No. 4 starter. Still, Ortiz has an elite fastball (73rd percentile velocity, 78th percentile extension, 94th percentile run value), and his slider has produced even better results (.300 vs. .326 xwOBA).
Ortiz faced the Padres last Thursday, allowing four-six on four hits (two homers) over six innings. Still, those innings were clean, aside from the two mistakes.
Since declaring them the trade deadline winners – and recommending their futures – Tuesday is the first time I have shown value in betting against the Padres in August.
Bets: Pirates Full-Game Moneyline (+155 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Braves vs. Giants Prediction, Preview & Pick
Charlie Morton (ATL) vs. Kyle Harrison (SFG)
I don't pay too close attention to home/road splits for many pitchers, but Kyle Harrison (4.73 xERA, 14.1% K-BB%, 90 Stuff+, 92 Pitching+, 4.99 botERA) has been a noticeably better pitcher at home than on the road in his young MLB career, likely for multiple reasons.
In 69 2/3 innings at home, Harrison has posted a 3.23 ERA and 3.84 xFIP with an 18.8% K-BB%. He's also limited opponents to 0.65 HR/9 on a 6.6% HR/FB rate at Oracle Park.
However, in 71 innings on the road, Harrison has a 4.94 ERA, 5.06 xFIP, and 10.6% K-BB% while permitting 2.15 HR/9 on a 17% HR/FB rate.
Harrison throws his four-seam fastball 60% of the time, and while it has produced the best results (.321 xwOBA) of any pitch in his arsenal (slurve .361 xwOBA, changeup .362), Harrison allows a ton of flyballs in the process.
Those flyballs typically don't hurt him at Oracle Park, which has the lowest Home Run Park Factor (79) in MLB over the past three years; Harrison can be more aggressive at home.
Charlie Morton (4.60 xERA, 14.2% K-BB%, 95 Stuff+, 97 Pitching+, 4.34 botERA) had a brutal July (6.21 ERA, 11 HR in 29 innings) and is plummeting to replacement-level status.
Morton's fastball velocity (93.8 mph) is down 1.1 mph year over year and at its lowest mark since 2016 – before he joined the Astros and blossomed in his thirties. Moreover, his Stuff+ rating (95) is down 11 points compared to last season – with his curveball down 18 points.
As a result, Morton is getting barrelled (10.1% barrel rate; 12th percentile) more than ever before (6.2% career average)
Bets: Giants Full-Game Moneyline (-105 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday, August 13
For additional bet notifications, follow me in the Action Network App. This section will highlight the best MLB bets for the day. Additionally, we provide free MLB picks and insights to help bettors make informed decisions.
- Chicago Cubs / Cleveland Guardians, Under 8.5 (-105, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (flat to -115)
- Cleveland Guardians (-118, 0.5u; bet to -125)
- Colorado Rockies (+210, 0.25u) at Caesars (small to +180)
- Minnesota Twins (+100, 0.75u; bet to -120, reduce risk past -110)
- New York Mets (-155, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (flat to -155)
- Oakland Athletics / New York Mets, Under 8.5 (-112, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (flat to -119 or 8, +100)
- Pittsburgh Pirates F5 (+205, 0.25u; small to +180)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (+178, 0.5u; bet to +155)
- San Francisco Giants (+100, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -105)
- Seattle Mariners F5 (+110, 0.25u) at FanDuel (small to +106)
- Seattle Mariners (+110, 0.25u) at ESPNBet (small to +108)
- St. Louis Cardinals / Cincinnati Reds, Over 8.5 (-115, Risk 0.5u) at ESPNBet (flat to -122 or 9, -103)
- Texas Rangers / Boston Red Sox, Over 10 (-103, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars (flat to -111)
- Washington Nationals / Baltimore Orioles, Under 9 (-115, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (flat to -115)
