Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 Major League Baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Tuesday, August 20.
MLB Predictions Tuesday, Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (August 20)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Guardians vs. Yankees Best Bet: The Pro-Matthew Boyd Over/Under Pick
Matthew Boyd (CLE) vs. Luis Gil (NYY)
The Guardians and Yankees were off on Monday, but each gained ground on their main divisional competition; the Twins and Orioles both lost. Cleveland leads Minnesota by 2.5 games, while New York is a half-game up on Baltimore.
Both bullpens are well-rested after an off day, but Cleveland has the far better relievers – with the best ERA (2.67) and underlying metrics (1st in XIP, 1st in K-BB%) in MLB. Conversely, the Yankees' bullpen (15th in xFIP, 20th in K-BB%) seems likely to hurt their chances in October.
Cleveland's offense is a potentially soft matchup for Luis Gil (3.49 xERA, 16% K-BB%, 111 Stuff+, 101 Pitching+), who, despite an incredible rookie season, has fallen to third in AL Rookie of the Year odds (+750 at DraftKings).
Gil (2.4 current WAR, projected 2.8-2.9 end-of-season) currently trails his teammate, Austin Wells (3.0 WAR, projected 3.4-3.8), and Baltimore's Colton Cowser (3.0 WAR, projected 3.5-3.6) both in odds and end-of-season WAR projections. Cowser has far better offensive counting stats than Wells – whose value is tied to his defensive qualities. Regardless of whether you tailed me on Wells at longshot odds (+7000) in spring, I'd pass at the current pricing.
Cleveland's offense has been much better against lefties (112 wRC+, 8th) than righties (93 wRC+, 22nd) on the season, mainly since the All-Star break (16th vs. lefties, 30th vs. righties) – where the split gap has grown to 30 points (102 vs. 72 wRC+)
The Yankees are also in their lesser split (1st vs. righties, 13th vs. lefties; 2nd and 14th since the All-Star break), and I have always been pro-Matthew Boyd – who is making his second MLB start following Tommy John surgery.
Boyd has shown excellent command (combined 33 K, 2 BB, 27 innings) between his minor league tuneups and lone MLB start. He posted a 103 Location+ number in Triple-A and a 113 figure in that outing against the Cubs.
Boyd's Stuff+ rating (77 in Triple-A, 76 vs. Chicago) is down compared to prior seasons (86 in 2023, 84 career). Still, his velocity (92.2 mph vs. 91.6 career) is not a concern – and command is typically the biggest hurdle to overcome when recovering from a UCL injury.
Despite winds blowing out (7-8 mph) toward the right-field foul pole, cool August temperatures in New York (71 degrees at first pitch, 66 by the late innings) put my projected total at 7.76 runs.
Bets: Under 8.5 (-118 or 8, +100 or better) | Yankees F5 Moneyline (-155 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Orioles vs. Mets Prediction, Pick, Preview: Contrarian Over/Under Best Bet
Dean Kremer (BAL) vs. Jose Quintana (NYM)
While the wind is blowing out at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, it should be blowing in at Citi Field in Queens (7-8 mph) with the same moderate temperatures (71 degrees at first pitch, 67 by the late innings), decreasing the run-scoring environment by about five percent compared to an average day in Flushing.
I'm low on Dean Kremer (5.10 xERA, 11.7% K-BB%, 98 Pitching+) and Jose Quintana (4.97 xERA, 9.6% K-BB%, 93 Pitching+). Both pitchers are outperforming their underlying indicators, too, with career-low BABIPs (.262 for Quintana, .249 for Kremer vs. .304 and. 287 career).
Still, I set this total at 7.87 runs, given the favorable pitching conditions.
The total independently triggered a pair of profitable Action Labs systems for bettors: Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams (53.8% win, 5.1% ROI since 2005) and Under Streak (53% win, 3.2% ROI since 2005). Combined, the systems have been profitable this season (across a sample of more than 300 selections, but they are down overall since sports betting legalization in 2019 (-2.5% and -1.8% ROI, respectively), juicing out with win rates shy of 51%.
Given the starting pitchers, the under in this matchup would be contrarian, regardless, but my weather adjustment and projection point in that direction.
Bets: Under 8.5 (-118 or 8, +100 or better)
Sean Zerillo's Brewers vs. Cardinals MLB Prediction & Pick: The Weather Over/Under Bet To Make
Frankie Montas (MIL) vs. Erick Fedde (STL)
A pair of trade deadline acquisitions—Frankie Montas and Erick Fedde—will also have favorable conditions for their matchup in St. Louis: 76 degrees at first pitch and nine mph winds blowing in from left-center field. Both NL Central rivals were off on Monday, allowing their high-leverage relievers to rest.
I set the total at 7.36 runs – compared to 8.1 on a typical day at Busch Stadium. This game also triggered a trio of profitable Action Labs systems for bettors, including Under Streak and a pair of wind-related under systems.
The Wind Blowing In system has had a 54.5% win rate and 5% ROI since 2005, and the Second Half Under system has had a 57.3% win rate and 10.2% ROI over the same span. Moreover, both systems have been profitable (1.8% and 2.7% ROI, respectively) in the five years since sports betting legalization.
Bets: Under 8.5 (-118 or 8, +100 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Betting Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, August 20
For additional bet notifications, follow me in the Action Network App. Here are today's MLB bets, providing daily picks to help you make informed wagers. The best MLB bets are highlighted to maximize your profits through expert advice and insights.
- Atlanta Braves (+118, 0.5u; bet to +105)
- Baltimore Orioles / New York Mets, Under 8.5 (-105, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -115)
- Cincinnati Reds (+133, 0.5u; bet to +125)
- Cleveland Guardians / New York Yankees, Under 8.5 (-105, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -118 or 8, +100)
- Detroit Tigers / Chicago Cubs, Under 7.5 (+100, 0.5u) at DraftKings (flat to -115)
- Milwaukee Brewers / St. Louis Cardinals, Under 8 (-108, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to -115)
- New York Yankees F5 (-140, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (flat to -155)
- Oakland Athletics (+106, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +102)
- Pittsburgh Pirates / Texas Rangers, Under 8 (-105, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -112)
- Seattle Mariners F5 (+135, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to +120)
- Seattle Mariners (+135, 0.5u) at BetMGM (small to +130)
