Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB Predictions, Expert Picks & Previews for Tuesday (August 6).
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks & Previews for Tuesday (August 6)
Padres vs. Pirates
Dylan Cease (SDP) vs. Bailey Falter (PIT)
Tuesday could be the last call to get Dylan Cease at decent odds (+2500 at ESPNBet) to win the NL Cy Young.
Cease currently ranks third in NL Pitching WAR (3.4), behind Chris Sale (4.1), but he has the most total strikeouts (174) in MLB—another key stat for Cy Young voters alongside WAR.
Updated end-of-season projections have Cease finishing between 4.4 and 4.9 WAR and Sale between 5 and 5.7 WAR. However, the latter poses a higher injury risk, carrying the heaviest workload (123 innings pitched) since 2019 (140 innings combined from 2020 to 2023).
Cease (3.15 xERA, 24.3% K-BB%, 108 Pitching+, 3.31 botERA) is having a season on par or better than his 2022 campaign (2.70 xERA, 19.9% K-BB%, 105 Pitching+). His fastball velocity (97 mph) is at a four-year high, and Cease has thrown his slider (46%) more often than ever before (36.7% career average).
Offensively, the Pirates have struggled against righties all year (84 wRC+, 28th), whereas the Padres have shown better splits against lefties (116 wRC+, 11th) than righties (108 wRC+, 15th).
Bailey Falter (4.99 xERA, 9.3% K-BB%, 96 Pitching+, 4.47 botERA) has overachieved with a 3.95 ERA this season, thanks in part to a .260 BABIP (.289 career)
Cease is the far superior pitcher, and even though the Padres have an elite bullpen, their pitching advantage still narrows in later innings.
Bets: Padres F5 Moneyline (-170 or better)
Astros vs. Rangers
Framber Valdez (HOU) vs. Tyler Mahle (TEX)
Tyler Mahle will make his Rangers' debut on Tuesday after signing a two-year, $22m pact this offseason.
Mahle was in career-best form in 2023 (3.23 xERA, 22.5% K-BB%, 105 Pitching+) before undergoing Tommy John surgery. He was excellent across six rehab appearances (18 IP, 11 H, 5 R, 4 BB, 18 K) over the past month, stretching his arm out to 74 pitches in his last outing.
The rest of the season projections put Mahle's FIP between 4.12 and 4.40, leaving substantial room for upside compared to his recent xERA levels (3.94 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 3.84 xFIP since 2021).
Framber Valdez (3.85 xERA, 14.7% K-BB%, 101 Pitching+) remains one of the best worm-burners in the sport (59.3% groundball rate, 62.4% career).
However, as I noted yesterday, Texas (1st in Outs Above Average or OAA, 5th in Defensive Runs Saved or DRS) has the defensive advantage over Houston (11th in OAA, 21st in DRS) in this matchup.
Moreover, I view the Rangers' offense much more favorably against a southpaw (projected 124 wRC+) than a right-handed starter (projected 102 wRC+ on Monday) and give them the offensive advantage over the Astros (projected 114 wRC+) on Tuesday. That opinion aligns with their season-long splits (17th vs. lefties, 26th vs. righties).
I projected the total at 7.66 runs; Globe Life Park played like a top-five hitters park last season (112 Park Factor for run-scoring), but it has reverted to a pitcher's park in 2024 (88 Park Factor)
Bets: Rangers Full-Game Moneyline (+110 or better) | Under 8.5 (-122 or 8, -103 or better)
Phillies vs. Dodgers
Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) vs. Clayton Kershaw (LAD)
Clayton Kershaw has underwhelmed through two 2024 outings; the future Hall-of-Famer posted a solid 102 Stuff+ figure in his debut (101 in 2023) but followed that up with a 96 Stuff+ rating in his start on July 31 in San Diego – where he allowed seven runs in 3 2/3 innings while failing to record a strikeout.
In that outing, Kershaw's fastball averaged 89.6 mph, down a full mph and 11 Stuff+ points year over year.
I had initially expected 36-year-old Kershaw, coming off shoulder surgery, to pitch in line with his results from last season (3.77 xERA, 4.03 xFIP, 18.5% K-BB%).
However, we might see a further reduced version of a pitcher whose skillset has gradually eroded in recent years. The BAT puts his rest-of-season FIP at 4.13 – much higher than other systems (projected range of 3.79 to 3.92 – and I agree with that downside forecast.
Cristopher Sanchez (3.69 xERA, 13.4% K-BB%, 105 Pitching+) is the more effective starter and less likely to get harmed by the long ball (58.1% groundball rate) with the wind blowing out.
The Phillies also have a better, more well-rested bullpen and a superior position player group (projected 119 vs. 109 wRC+).
Bets: Phillies F5 Moneyline (-115 or better) | Phillies Full-Game Moneyline (-110 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Tuesday, August 6
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- Arizona Diamondbacks / Cleveland Guardians, Over 8 (-105, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM (flat to 8.5, -104)
- Baltimore Orioles / Toronto Blue Jays, Under 8.5 (-105, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM (flat to -112)
- Boston Red Sox (+123, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to +115)
- Cincinnati Reds / Miami Marlins, Under 8 (-115, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM (flat to -120 or 7.5, -102)
- Cleveland Guardians (-105, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -120)
- Houston Astros / Texas Rangers, Under 8.5 (-115, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (flat to -122)
- Minnesota Twins / Chicago Cubs, Over 6 (-105, Risk 0.5u) at Bet365 (flat to -118 or 6.5 (+100)
- New York Mets F5 (-125, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (flat to -135)
- New York Yankees F5 (-195, 0.25u) at BallyBet (small to -230)
- Philadelphia Phillies F5 (-103, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to -115)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-105, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -110)
- San Diego Padres F5 (-152, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to -170)
- San Diego Padres / Pittsburgh Pirates, Over 8 (-110, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -118 or 8.5 (+100)
- San Francisco Giants F5 (-106, 0.25u) at BallyBet (small to -116)
- Texas Rangers (+116, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +110)
