Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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Here are my favorite bets for Tuesday, July 23.
MLB Predictions Tuesday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today
Bullpen Game (DET) vs. Xzavion Curry (CLE)
The Tigers will utilize their bullpen heavily in Tuesday's contest after starting a left-handed reliever to give the Guardians order – which includes as many as eight left-handed or switch-hitting bats – a different look the first time through the order.
The Guardians will counter with Xzavion Curry (5.67 xERA, 12.2% K-BB%, 90 Stuff+, 104 Location+) – who owns a career 5.37 xFIP and 5.10 SIERA – but their relievers are also well-rested, and should provide a pitching advantage in the late innings.
Cleveland has the best bullpen in MLB per xFIP (3.49) and ranks second in K-BB% (18.4%). Pitching models put the Guardians' relievers at a 107 Stuff+ figure (11th), compared to a mark of 96 for Tigers' relievers (29th), who rank 17th in xFIP (4.07) and 21st in K-BB% (13.5%).
I'd project the Guardians' bullpen for a season-long ERA sixth-tenths of a run lower than the Tigers' – smaller than their actual ERA differential this season (2.56 vs. 4.08); more comparable to their current gap in xFIP (3.49 vs. 4.07).
With a superior bullpen and lineup, I make the Guardians north of 60% in this matchup, and I set the total at 8 runs, expecting aggressive bullpen usage on either side.
Bets: Guardians Full-Game Moneyline (-140 or better) | Under 8.5 (-110 or better)
Jose Quintana (NYM) vs. Luis Gil (NYY)
Underlying indicators (5.18 xERA, 5.00 FIP) and pitch modeling metrics (5.22 bottle, 5.28 in 2023) suggest that Jose Quintana is a replacement-level arm at age 35. He lost a tick off his arsenal last season, which may have been a tipping point.
Luis Gil (3.35 xERA, 16.5% K-BB%) is showing potential fatigue while surpassing a professional high in single-season innings pitched, posting a 103 Stuff+ figure (94 Location+, 100 Pitching+) over the past thirty days – compared to a 113 figure from March to mid-June.
Given the Mets' upcoming schedule – including a four-game set against the Braves this weekend – I could see them hanging Quintana out to dry – or using their "B" bullpen to mop up innings if they fall behind early.
Conversely, the Yankees have an off-day on Thursday and can afford to be more aggressive with their reliever usage.
I show slight value on the Yankees — against Quintana — in the first half or first five innings (F5), but I prefer the over compared to my projected total of 9.28.
Bets: Over 8.5 (-120 or 9, -101 or better)
Tyler Alexander (TBR) vs. Jose Berrios (TOR)
The Blue Jays excel defensively (second in Defensive Runs Saved, 5th in Outs Above Average) but struggle elsewhere. They feature a below-average lineup (18th per wRC+, and currently without Bo Bichette) and a bottom-five bullpen (4.44 xFIP, 26th) that is missing closer Jodan Romano.
The Rays rank closer to average defensively but otherwise have similar season-long metrics. Still, Tampa Bay's offense has been much hotter and healthier lately—ranking 9th in wRC+ over the past thirty days. Randy Arozarena (161 wRC+ in the last calendar month) has potentially put a brutal start (.191 AVG., 94 wRC+ prior) behind him.
I've always been the low-man on Jose Berrios (4.94 xERA, 11% K-BB%), who is showing career-worst indicators and pitch modeling metrics (91 Stuff+, 99 Pitching+; down from 100 and 103 in 2023).
Tyler Alexander (5.08 xERA, 14.2% K-BB%, 93 Stuff+, 106 Location+, 105 Pitching+) should start for the Rays – who should feature a comparable or better bullpen than Toronto in the late innings.
Both teams may sell before the deadline, but the Rays should add the rehabbing Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs and No.3 MLB prospect Junior Caminero (four homers in eight games) to their roster in the coming weeks – and should remain the more competitive club down the stretch.
Bets: Rays Full-Game Moneyline (+131 or better)
Zack Wheeler vs. Simeon Woods Richardson
Zack Wheeler (2.89 xERA, 31.4% K-BB%, 106 Stuff+, 104 Location+, 108 Pitching) skipped his start before the All-Star break due to a back injury. There aren't any concerning signs in his profile of late; in fact, Wheeler's recent pitch modeling metrics (110 Stuff+ in the last 30 days) and velocity levels are higher than his 2024 averages. And I'm projecting him at the same level – around a 3.00 ERA – tied with Chris Sale and just behind Paul Skenes – had I not known about the injury.
Still, Wheeler will pitch his first competitive game in exactly two weeks on Tuesday, so aside from any injury concerns, there may be a bit of rust.
Simeon Woods-Richardson (3.82 xERA, 13.8% K-BB%, 87 Stuff+, 106 Location+, 101 Pitching+, 4.13 botERA) has made significant strides this season and proven himself effective at the MLB level:
On average, his fastball is up 2.6 mph, and his slider has increased by 3.6 mph compared to last season.
The Twins match up well with the Phillies offensively (4th vs. 6th in wRC+) and in the bullpen (10th vs. 2nd in xFIP, 7th vs. 1st in K-BB%, 2nd vs. 4th in Stuff+) better than most clubs. They are also rated as the superior defensive team in my model.
Bets: Twins Full-Game Moneyline (+131 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Tuesday, July 23
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- Arizona Diamondbacks / Kansas City Royals, Under 10 (-112, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (flat to 9.5, +100)
- Boston Red Sox / Colorado Rockies, Over 10.5 (-118, Risk 0.5u; flat to 11, -105)
- Chicago Cubs F5 (-110, Risk 0.5u; flat to -119)
- Cincinnati Reds (+205, 0.25u) at BallyBet (small to +185)
- Cleveland Guardians (-125, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -140)
- Detroit Tigers / Cleveland Guardians, Under 8.5 (-105, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -110)
- Minnesota Twins (+143, 0.5u) at WynnBet (Bet to +131)
- New York Mets / New York Yankees, Over 8.5 (-115, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -120 or 9, -101)
- Parlay (+159, 0.25u at BetMGM): New York Yankees F5 (-155) F5 & Pittsburgh Pirates F5 (-175)
- Seattle Mariners (-155, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (flat to -160)
- Tampa Bay Rays (+136, 0.5u; bet to +131)
