MLB Predictions, Odds Tuesday | Expert Picks & Previews
Credit: Getty Images. Pictured: David Festa (left), Matt Waldron (right).
Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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You can find my projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Tuesday, July 30.
MLB Predictions, Odds Tuesday | Expert Picks & Previews
Gerrit Cole (NYY) vs. Aaron Nola (PHI)
Editor's Note: Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole (body fatigue) has been scratched from Tuesday's start against the Phillies. Will Warren will start in his place.
After missing the first two and a half months with elbow discomfort, Gerrit Cole has shown declining indicators (4.63 xERA, 16.8% K-BB%, 112 Stuff+, 104 Pitching+) since returning in mid-June. Cole looks like an average pitcher compared to his 2023 Cy Young season (3.48 xERA, 21.2% K-BB%, 121 StufF+, 109 Pitching+), which itself was a reduced version compared to his 2022 season (3.31 xERA, 26.1% K-BB%, 139 Stuf+, 110 Pitching+) or his two seasons before that (3.13 and 3.31 xERA, 113 Pitching+ in both seasons).
Cole's fastball is 95.9 mph, down from 96.7 mph in 2023 and 97.8 mph in 2022. The Stuff+ rating on his four-seamer has dropped from 157 to 115 in two years. Only surgery can fully repair the once seemingly bulletproof ace, who will turn 34 in September.
I'm uncertain about the defensive quality behind him, too. Gleyber Torres (-4 DRS) has refused to move off second base, forcing new acquisition Jazz Chisholm to learn to play the hot corner on the job.
Jazz was a bad defensive shortstop (-5 DRS in 2021) who struggled with his throwing arm (-4 DRS) and ranging to his right. He's been one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball over the past two seasons (combined -14 DRS; third worst at the position behind Jack Suwinski, -17, and Esteury Ruiz, -19).
Wind (10 mph out to left-center field) should provide some additional offensive support — triggering the following Action Labs system for Overs — which has fared better at Citizens Bank Park (34-13-2, 72.3% win, +$1982 for a consistent $100 bettor, 40.5% ROI) than anywhere else:
I'd set the total closer to 8.7 runs on an average day at Citizen's Bank Park, but the wind pushes my projection north of 9.5 for Tuesday's deadline day matchup.
Bets: Over 9 (-112 or better)
David Festa (MIN) vs. Sean Manaea (NYM)
By pitch modeling metrics, David Festa was considered one of the better pitching prospects in Triple-A (109 Stuff+, 104 Location+, 108 Pitching); numbers which he's seemingly legitimatized through 15 MLB innings (106 Stuff+, 100 Location+, 105 Pitching+).
Festa has a plus slider (121 Stuff+) and fastball (111 Stuff+), alongside a still-developing changeup (75 Stuff+).
He looked more relaxed in his recent bulk bullpen appearance against the Phillies than in his first two MLB starts. But he's generated a combined 15:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio with those above-average pitch modeling metrics, painting him as a potential mid-rotation starter in the present.
I prefer Festa to Sean Manaea (4.54 xERA, 12.6% K-BB%, 86 Stuff+, 96 Location+, 95 Pitching+), whose own pitching modeling metrics have dipped in recent weeks (82 Stuff+, 92 Location+, 89 Pitching+ in his past two starts while allowing 11 hits, seven runs, and five walks against five strikeouts).
And I give Minnesota the edges offensively (projected 118 vs. 111 wrC+ in their respective splits) and in the bullpen (3.38 vs. 3.74 model-weighted ERA).
Bets: Twins F5 Moneyline (+112 or better) | Twins Full-Game Moneyline (+114 or better)
Tyler Glasnow (LAD) vs. Matt Waldron (SDP)
Freddie Freeman missed the Dodgers' series in Houston and will presumably miss Monday's contest in San Diego, too, as he tends to his ailing son.
Freeman's absence shortens what is already a pretty shallow lineup. The Dodgers have four hitters who project for a below-average wRC+ against a right-handed starter. I project them for a 106 wRC+ as a unit without their regular first baseman.
The Padres have the offensive advantage (projected 112 wRC+ vs. a right-handed starter), and I project them as the better defensive and baserunning team, too.
They also beefed up an already solid bullpen (7th in xFIP, 9th in K-BB%, first in Stuff+, first in Pitching+) by adding another explosive reliever, Jason Adam (3.41 xERA, 18.9% K-BB%, 129 Stuff+) from the Rays.
Tyler Glasnow (2.62 xERA, 25.6% K-BB%, 118 Stuff+, 107 Pitching+) provides the Dodgers with a starting pitching advantage over knuckleballer Matt Waldron (3.66 xERA, 14.3% K-BB%, 82 Stuff+, 98 Pitching+).
Still, Waldron's arsenal (by pitch modeling metrics) and ability to avoid hard contact (85th percentile in hard-hit rate) are likely under-projected, due to his uniqueness as a pitcher.
The Current Padres' hitters have shown solid plate discipline against Glasnow (27.4% strikeout rate vs. 31.2% career, with a 16.2% walk rate), but they haven't found hits yet (7-for-52, three extra-base hits). If they can get anything off Glasnow on Tuesday, they'll have an excellent shot to win with the advantages elsewhere in the matchup.
Bets: Padres Full-Game Moneyline (+118 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Tuesday, July 30
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- Arizona Diamondbacks F5 (-175, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM (flat to -185)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (-178, 0.25u) at FanDuel) (small to -180)
- Cleveland Guardians / Detroit Tigers, Over 8.5 (-102, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -108)
- Kansas City Royals / Chicago White Sox, Over 8.5 (-110, 0.5u) at ESPNBet (bet to -120 or 9, -101)
- Minnesota Twins F5 (+118, 0.25u) at Parx (small to +112)
- Minnesota Twins (+120, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to +114)
- New York Yankees / Philadelphia Phillies, Over 9 (+100, 0.5u) at Caesars (Be to -112)
- Oakland Athletics (+170, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to +160)
- San Diego Padres (+125, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to +118)
- Seattle Mariners / Boston Red Sox, F5 Over 4.5 (-120, 0.25u) at Bet365 (small to -150 or 5, -110)
- Seattle Mariners / Boston Red Sox, Over 9.5 (-108, 0.25u) at FanDuel (small to -111)
- Tampa Bay Rays F5 (-150, Risk 0.5u) at Parx (flat to -175)
- Tampa Bay Rays (-167, Risk 0.5u; flat to -175)
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