Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can find expert projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Tuesday, June 11.
MLB Predictions Tuesday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (June 11)
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 9 -110o / -110u | -124 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 9 -110o / -110u | +106 |
Triston Mckenzie (CLE) vs. Brent Suter (CIN)
I don't view the Guardians as an excellent matchup for the Reds. Cleveland's offense will put the ball in play and take advantage of a severe defensive mismatch (3rd vs. 24th in Defensive Runs Saved), and its pitchers excel at holding runners.
Still, I remain low on Triston McKenzie (4.95 xERA or expected ERA), who is showing shaky command (13.5% walk rate) while pitching through a UCL injury. His velocity (90.9 mph vs. 92.5 mph in 2022), pitch modeling metrics (100 Stuff+ vs. 113 in 2022), and command (93 Location+ vs. 102 in 2022) are down significantly compared to his peak, and that injury — which he sustained in June of 2023 — is almost certainly to blame.
Cincinnati will use Brent Suter to neutralize some of the Guardians' lefties ahead of Nick Martinez and Carson Spiers. The Reds defeated the Dodgers twice using Martinez as the bulk reliever.
Pitch modeling metrics (100 Stuff+, 110 Location+, 108 Pitching+) and underlying metrics (2.90 xERA) suggest that Martinez deserves slightly better results. He's introduced a new slider (105 Stuff+, 10% usage rate), and both his changeup (119 Stuff+) and curveball (105 Stuff+) have improved compared to last season (88 and 97, respectively; 108 and 110 in 2022).
Spiers relies on a nasty slider (141 Stuff+) and solid command, but a low strikeout rate (18.8%) is problematic for a reliever with a low ground-ball rate (33.9%) pitching in Great American Ball Park.
Cincinnati has a fresh bullpen after an off-day on Monday. The Guardians' relievers lead the league with a 3.26 xFIP — while the Reds are closer to league average (4.00, 16th) — but the gap in K-BB% (1st vs. 5th) and Stuff+ (9th vs. 14th) is more narrow.
Still, they'll only have a pitching edge for the first half until the Guardians bullpen gets involved. And I'd likely prefer to bet the Reds in the first five innings (F5) — only the full game market was available overnight.
Bets: Reds F5 Moneyline (-118 or better) | Reds Full-Game Moneyline (+100 or better)
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 8 -115o / -105u | -164 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -126 | 8 -115o / -105u | +138 |
Zack Wheeler (PHI) vs. Kutter Crawford (BOS)
I'm curious to see how the Mets and Phillies perform over the next few days with the potential of jet lag following a two-game gaunt to London — although both teams received two days off on either side of the trip. Intuitively, I'd expect their bats to be a touch slow if anything, and would lean to unders blindly.
The pitching on Tuesday should be high caliber. Zack Wheeler (2.77 xERA) is seeking his first Cy Young, and Kutter Crawford (3.66 xERA) remains one of the more underrated pitchers over the past two seasons (3.25 xERA in 2023).
Crawford has struggled in his last three outings (17 runs in 16 1/3 innings). Oddly, his pitch modeling metrics (113 Stuff+, 102 Location+) are at season-best levels over that span (107 and 103 in 2024).
Both teams have well-rested bullpens that rank in the top five by both xFIP and Pitching+, and in the top three per K-BB%.
Weather should also suppress offense relative to a typical day at Fenway Park. I set this total at 7.73 runs.
Bets: Under 8 (-101 or better) | Red Sox Full-Game Moneyline (+140 or better)
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -194 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +112 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -132 |
Jesus Luzardo (MIA) vs. Tylor Megill (NY)
Jesus Luzardo missed time in April and May with an elbow injury, and his velocity has been trending down since his return (95.8 mph in his first seven starts; 94.6 mph in his last four starts).
Luzardo's average fastball velocity and strikeout rate (22.5%) align with his disastrous 2021 campaign (22.4%) when Oakland dealt him to Miami. He eventually regained a tick on his fastball and turned into one of the best left-handed starters in baseball for 40 starts between the 2022 and 2023 seasons. Luzardo's slider also sat at a career-high 85.1 mph last season (111 Stuff+) — down to 83.6 mph in 2024, with a 98 Stuff+.
His overall profile has fallen from No. 2 starter (3.96 xERA, 104 Stuff+, 102 Pitching+ in 2023) to No. 4 starter (4.47 xERA, 96 Stuff+, 99 Pitching+), and if you isolate for his most recent four-start sample (at reduced velocity), he's closer to a replacement-level arm (92 Stuff+, 95 Location+, 90 Pitching+, 5.06 botERA).
Tylor Megill has shown spotty command in his return from a shoulder strain (91 Location+), but he's seen his velocity bounce back to 2022 levels and flashed elite stuff (109 Stuff+) while incorporating a new cutter and splitter more than 20% of the time, combined. If Megill refines his command, he has frontline starter potential.
I was using an upgraded projection for Megill in recent starts. Given the shaky command, I'm back to a pure projection, which rates him closer to a league-average arm — though I think he's significantly better than that.
Conversely, Luzardo has a shallow floor if he's pitching through injury.
Bets: Mets F5 Moneyline (-140 or better) | Mets Full-Game Moneyline (-135 or better)
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 9.5 -100o / -122u | -138 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -138 | 9.5 -100o / -122u | +118 |
Marcus Stroman (NYY) vs. Brady Singer (KCR)
I've been down on Marcus Stroman (4.54 xERA) and Brady Singer (4.51 xERA) all season.
Stroman (.248 BABIP, 81.9% strand rate vs. .296 and 72.3% career) and Singer (.291 BABIP and 83.6% strand rate vs. .315 and 71.8% career) have both run well to carry respective ERAs of 3.04 and 2.76.
Stroman has career-worst marks in K-BB% (8.4%) and pitch modeling metrics (95 Stuff+, 94 Pitching+).
Singer's strikeout rate and K-BB% bounced back after a down 2023 season. However, his pitch modeling metrics (87 Stuff+ vs. 84 in 2023, 91 in 2022, and 102 in 2021) remain disappointing. Singer posted a 100 Pitching+ during his breakout 2022 campaign (3.23 ERA, 3.97 xERA) compared to 95 over each of the past two seasons.
The Yankees offense has surprisingly large splits — they lead baseball against right-handed pitching (128 wRC+) but rank closer to average (106 wRC+, 12th) against lefties.
I set Tuesday's total just shy of 10 runs.
Bets: Over 9 (9.5, -106 or better) | Royals Full-Game Moneyline (+120 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Tuesday, June 11
For additional bet notifications, follow me in the Action Network App.
- Boston Red Sox (+148, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +140)
- Cincinnati Reds (+106, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +100)
- Cincinnati Reds F5 (+110, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -118)
- Colorado Rockies / Minnesota Twins, Over 8.5 (+100, 0.25u) at Caesars (small to +100)
- Kansas City Royals (+129, 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to +120)
- New York Mets F5 (-135, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -140)
- New York Mets (-132, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -135)
- New York Yankees / Kansas City Royals, Over 9 (-120, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to 9.5, -106)
- Pittsburgh Pirates F5 (-125, Risk 1u) at BetMGM (bet to -135; reduce risk past -125)
- Philadelphia Phillies / Boston Red Sox, Under 8 (+100, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -101)
- San Francisco Giants (-112, 0.5u) at Parx (bet to -115)
- Texas Rangers / Los Angeles Dodgers, F5 Over 4.5 (-125, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (flat to -145 or 5, -103)
- Toronto Blue Jays /Milwaukee Brewers, Under 8.5 (-112, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -120 or 8.5, -102)
