Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and expert picks and previews for Guardians vs Yankees ALCS Game 2 on Tuesday, October 15.
MLB Predictions & Expert Picks for Tuesday, Oct. 15
MLB Futures Update and Championship Series Prices
- ALCS Projections:
- NLCS Projections:
- World Series Projections:
- Yankees: 41.2% (+143)
- Dodgers: 29.5% (+239)
- Mets: 17.0% (+489)
- Guardians: 12.3% (+713)
The Mets are closer to the value side of the series price, playing essentially a best-of-five with home-field advantage in the next three games over the Dodgers. I'd bet the Mets' NLCS series price or their NL Pennant odds at +133 (42.1% implied) or better before Game 3.
In the correct score market, I project slight value on the Mets sweeping their home games and winning the NLCS 4-1 (projected +794, listed +850 at FanDuel) or 4-3 (projected +492, listed +500 at Caesars) depending upon the book.
However, I'm also interested in this exact order bet, which encompasses the Mets winning Manaea's second start and both games against Buehler to steal the series in seven games: G1 LAD / G2 NYM / G3 NYM / G4 LAD / G5 LAD / G6 NYM / G7 NYM (+2800 at FanDuel).
The Guardians remain the value team in the AL Pennant (listed +290 at FanDuel) and World Series markets (projected +713, listed +800 at ESPNBet); I'd want around +300 and +800, respectively, to fire at either.
I also show value on the Guardians to win the ALCS 4-3 (projected +609, listed +700 at DraftKings and FanDuel) or the Yankees to win 4-1 (projected +410, listed +425 at DraftKings).
Sean Zerillo's Guardians vs Yankees Game 2 Best Bet
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+145 | 7 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -155 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-170 | 7 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +130 |
RHP Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs RHP Gerrit Cole (NYY)
When I mentioned on Monday that New York and Cleveland have met in the postseason seven times since 1997, I didn't realize it was the second-most common playoff matchup of all time behind Yankees-Dodgers (11 series) — which is on the table for this season's World Series.
The top two teams in the AL will throw their de-facto aces in Game 2 with Tanner Bibee (3.80 xERA, 10.1% K-BB%, 104 Pitching+, 3.68 botERA) facing Gerrit Cole (3.59 xERA, 17.9% K-BB%, 105 Pitching+, 3.76 botERA).
Both teams only have one left-handed starter, leaving the Guardians in their lesser offensive split (95 wRC+, 20th vs. righties on the season and 88 wRC+, 27th in the second half) for most of the series. In contrast, the Yankees, who had MLB's best offense against right-handed pitching this season (120 wRC+), will enjoy better matchups.
Otherwise, the gap between Cole and Bibee is relatively slight. Cole finally won a Cy Young in 2023 — after a six-year run as a clear top-three pitcher in his league — but that Cy Young campaign (2.63 ERA, 3.48 xERA, 2.60 xFIP, 21.2% K-BB%, 121 Stuff+) was slightly luck driven (.261 BABIP, 80.4% strand rate vs. .292 and 73.5% career).
His underlying indicators have declined in three consecutive seasons:
- 2022: 3.31 xERA, 2.77 xFIP, 26.1% K-BB%, 31.9% CSW%, 139 Stuff+, 3.06 botERA
- 2023: 3.48 xERA, 3.60 xFIP, 21.2% K-BB%, 27.7% CSW%, 121 Stuff+, 3.50 botERA
- 2024: 3.59 xERA, 3.99 xFIP, 17.9% K-BB%, 27.5% CSW%, 111 Stuff+, 3.76 botERA
Unsurprisingly, Cole's fastball velocity has also steadily decreased over that stretch. In terms of effectiveness, I'd now rate him much closer to Aaron Nola than Paul Skenes.
The Guardians don't avoid the strikeouts against righties quite as readily as they do against lefties — aligning with their production splits — but I'd be tempted by Cole Under 4.5 Strikeouts at plus money (or 5.5 to -140), which I bet in Game 4 against the Royals with Cole's strikeout rate (25.7%) at its lowest mark since 2017.
I also bet Bibee Under 4.5 strikeouts at plus money against the Tigers in Game 4 after altering his pitch mix in Game 1, and I'm inclined to do the same (to -120) in Game 2 against the Yankees.
I'll also monitor Bibee's outs recorded market, which has yet to open. Those props closed at 5.5 (+110 under) and 14.5 (+120 under) for Game 1 and 4.5 (+115) and 13.5 (-135), respectively, for Game 4 against Detroit,.
Bibee threw 13 sinkers in Game 1 and 12 in Game 4 (22.8% combined usage) against the Tigers despite rarely throwing the pitch throughout his MLB career (0.2% overall and nine total in the 2024 regular season).
The sinker was Bibee's primary weapon at Cal State Fullerton, but the Guardians likely had him scrap the pitch in pro ball for philosophical reasons. Cleveland's pitchers ranked 29th in sinker usage (7.7%) amongst all teams in 2024 compared to second in four-seam fastball rate (38.3%).
The Yankees rank in the top two against both four-seamers and sinkers this season, but I'd expect him to keep using the pitch to attempt to induce weak contact.
Bibee saw the Yankees once last season but didn't face them in 2024. Cole had a rocky but scoreless start against Cleveland in August (6 IP, 0 R 1 H, 5 BB, 2 K); Josh Naylor (.939 OPS in 26 career PA) and Jose Ramirez (1.129 in 41 PA) have handled him well.
As a reminder, I give the Guardians the bullpen edge (2nd in 2024 xFIP, 2nd in K-BB%, 11th in Piching+, 16th in botERA) over the Yankees (11th in second half xFIP, 11th in K-BB%, 13th in Pitching+, 15th in botERA) or either team in the NL. ERA isn't the best indicator, but I still found this list particularly neat:
via @Stathead:
the Guardians are the first team in MLB history to have 4 relievers with a sub-2.00 ERA in 60+ innings pitched
only 33 other teams have even had 2 such relievers in the same season, and only 4 others have had 3https://t.co/IbmRsg7RBYpic.twitter.com/lNJVNsYxQs
— Céspedes Family BBQ (@CespedesBBQ) October 14, 2024
The Guardians also have clear advantages both defensively and on the basepaths. New York is the 10th-ranked club by Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Outs Above Average (OAA), but the Guardians rank second and ninth, respectively, and also project better in my model. Additionally, the Yankees rank 30th in BsR (Baserunning Runs Above Average) and are the slowest team in MLB by sprint speed.
I make the Yankees -149 favorites (59.8% implied) for Game 2 in the Bronx. Play the Guardians' moneyline at +155 (39.2% implied) or better.
I projected the total at 7.3 runs and would bet Over 7 at -102 or better or wait for a live over 6.5.
Zerillo's MLB Guardians vs Yankees Predictions & Picks for Tuesday, October 15
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- Cleveland Guardians (+164, 0.75u) at FanDuel; bet to +155 (reduce below +160)
- Cleveland Guardians / New York Yankees, Over 7 (+100, 0.25u) at DraftKings (small to -102)
- Gerrit Cole Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135, 0.1u) at DraftKings & (-140, 0.1u) at BetMGM
- Tanner Bibee Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-104, 0.1u) at FanDuel
