Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions, expert picks and previews for the NLDS games on Tuesday, October 8.
MLB Predictions & Tuesday Expert Picks, Previews for the NLDS
MLB Futures Update and Divisional Series Prices
My projection for Dodgers–Padres depends upon Freddie Freeman's ankle. The star first baseman left Game 2 after five innings, with the Dodgers trailing 3-1, and the Game 3 moneyline has moved fairly aggressively toward the Padres.
If Freeman misses the remainder of the series, I will make San Diego a 52.3% series favorite (-109 implied) rather than slight underdogs (projected +103) if he plays.
Phillies vs Mets
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 7 -120o / 100u | -115 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 7 -120o / 100u | -105 |
RHP Aaron Nola (PHI) vs LHP Sean Manaea (NYM)
Aaron Nola (3.75 xFIP, 17.9% K-BB%, 104 Pitching+, 3.63 botERA) will face the Mets for the third time this season and the 29th time of his professional career in NLDS Game 3.
Nola dominated the Mets for a complete game shutout in May, but then he permitted six runs in 4 1/3 innings on Sept. 13 and has allowed a .777 OPS to current Mets hitters across 265 plate appearances. Pete Alonso (16-for-50, 5 HRs, 1.050 OPS) is responsible for most of that damage.
Sean Manaea (3.75 xERA, 16.4% K-BB%, 96 Pitching+, 4.45 botERA) enters off an impressive second half (3.75 xERA, 19.2% K-BB%; 4.29 and 14% first half) after making a subtle change to his delivery and altering his pitch mix near the end of July, using his sinker more aggressively (38.1% before late July, 55.4% since) at the expense of his cutter (from 11% to 1%).
Manaea all but eliminated the pitch from his arsenal during his past two seasons in San Diego and San Francisco, but he has found more success the more he has thrown it in 2024.
Manaea faced the Phillies thrice this season and tossed a pair of quality starts, including seven effective innings on Sept. 21.
However, he has permitted a career 1.027 OPS to current Phillies hitters across 103 plate appearances, with most of the Philly stars getting in on the action (Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos and Trea Turner are a combined 15-for-43 with five homers).
Philadelphia has the offensive edge, with the Mets using a left-handed starter and facing a righty. Both clubs posted a 118 wRC+ (T-3) against southpaw pitching this season compared to marks of 105 (Mets, 11th) and 104 (Phillies, 13th) against righties. The Phillies also run the bases better (6th vs. 24th in BsR).
Still, the Mets may have the defensive advantage, besting the Phillies in both defensive metrics (DRS and OAA) this season while doing their best defensive work in the year's second half (ranked in the bottom five of team DRS into June).
The Phillies have the better bullpen (6th in xFIP, 6th in K-BB%, 7th in Pitching+, 7th in botERA) compared to the Mets (5th, 4th, 27th and 25th, respectively). However, New York has better second-half results (7th in xFIP and K-BB%) than the Phillies (20th by both metrics).
And while both bullpens should be well rested after an off-day, the Phillies used two relievers — Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering — on consecutive days in Games 1 and 2, and an appearance in Game 3 would mark their third in four days.
I projected the Mets as slight favorites (-101 for the first five innings or F5; -102 for the full game) at home in Game 3, and I don't project value on either side of the moneyline.
I would want +106 or better to bet the Mets or +111 to bet the Phillies — with either line representing an edge of at least 2% compared to my projected line.
However, I do project value on the total, setting the number at 6.75 runs due to a cross breeze (11 mph from third base to first base) and the presence of pitcher-friendly plate umpire Doug Eddings, who owns a career 54.4% record to the Under (+$2,639, +4.3% ROI). Bet Under 7 to -105.
I'd expect both starting pitchers to get a longer leash than any pitchers in Game 2 considering Game 4 will be played on Wednesday, and I'm interested in Manaea over 15.5 outs recorded at plus money (+110 at Caesars).
The Mets only have one left-handed reliever besides David Peterson, who tossed 50 pitches on Saturday and would likely want Manaea to face Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper a third time before exiting. Manaea owns a career 3.45 xFIP and 18.9% K-BB% against lefties, compared to marks of 4.23 and 14.7% against righties.
That said, I also like Bryce Harper to walk at any plus-money price. New York pitched around Harper in Game 1 and took an even more extreme approach (two walks, one pitch in the strike zone) after his Game 2 homer.
Dodgers vs Padres
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +125 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -150 |
RHP Walker Buehler (LAD) vs. RHP Michael King (SD)
My projection for Dodgers-Padres Game 3 — and the series moneyline — depends upon Freddie Freeman's ankle. The star first baseman left Game 2 after five innings, with the Dodgers trailing just 3-1 at the time.
Assuming Freeman plays in Game 3, I'd set the Padres as -133 favorites (57.1% implied). However, if Freeman sits, I'd move the Padres to -146 (59.3% implied).
Based on the line movement for this contest, the betting market expects Freeman to miss Game 3, which saw the Padres open around -125 (55.6% implied) before climbing to around -155 (60.8% implied) at the time of writing.
I'd want +144 to back the Dodgers with Freeman and need at least +169 to bet Los Angeles without him.
I like the Under either way, with pitcher-friendly plate umpire Cory Blaser (career 54.1% under, +$1,575, +4.2% ROI). Still, I would set my projection at 6.86 with Freeman and 6.7 without him.
Bet Under 7.5 to -115 if Freeman plays, and 7 (-102) if he sits.
Michael King excelled in his Wild Card Series start against the Braves (33% CSW% or called-strike plus whiff rate) after posting better second-half numbers (3.27 xFIP and 19.8% K-BB%) compared to the first half (3.62 xFIP, 18.6% K-BB%) despite easily surpassing his previous career high in innings.
Walker Buehler (4.68 xERA, 10.5% K-BB%, 100 Pitching+, 3.96 botERA) struggled across 16 starts since his return from Tommy John surgery. Most pitchers, including Buehler, show decreased command (8.1% walk rate, 101 Location+) following a UCL injury (6.2% BB% and 104 Location+ in 2021).
However, Buehler's velocity (95 mph in 2024, 95.2 in 2023, 94.3 in 2021, 96.8 in 2020, 96.5 in 2019) and Stuff (94 Stuff+ in 2024, 96 in 2023, 117 in 2022, 138 in 2020) both remain substantially down from his career peak.
Until that velocity ticks up toward 96 mph, Buehler will struggle to regain his Cy Young potential (3.08 xERA, 19.6% K-BB%, 108 Pitching+, 3.22 botERA in 2021).
If anything, Buehler's velocity has declined in season (averaged 94.6 mph in September).
As a reminder, San Diego has the bullpen edge, too — as it would over any team remaining in the playoffs — after ranking 2nd in xFIP and K-BB% and 1st by both Pitching+ and botERA in the second half. The Dodgers' bullpen was below average (19th, 18th, 17th and 16th) by the same four metrics.
The Dodgers typically have a slight offensive edge, but Freeman's absence would shrink the discrepancy.
With the Padres expected to deploy their bullpen heavily in Game 4, King may pitch relatively deep into Game 3. I would have bet his outs recorded over 15.5 at plus money, but with the number at 16.5 (-101 Over), I'm inclined to pass.
Zerillo's MLB Predictions & Picks for Tuesday, October 8
- Los Angeles Dodgers / San Diego Padres, Under 8 (-105, 0.75u) at FanDuel (bet to 7.5, -115)
- Philadelphia Phillies / New York Mets, Under 7.5 (-110, 0.75u) at FanDuel (bet to 7, -105)
