Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Tuesday, September 24.
MLB Predictions Tuesday, Expert Picks, Odds, Previews on September 24
This article will be my final opening pitch entry for the 2024 MLB regular season. Below, I'll highlight the critical remaining series and races to watch for the next six days.
Follow me in the Action Network App for bet notifications, including sides and totals for Tuesday's slate.
NL Wild Card Betting Odds (Two Spots for the Braves, Diamondbacks, and Mets)
As of Tuesday morning, the New York Mets' expected playoff probability is between 75.1% and 80.6% across three publicly available projection systems (ATC, The Bat X, FanGraphs; PECOTA had yet to update). Their playoff betting market (-400 YES, 80% implied; +305 NO, 24.7% implied) aligns with the midpoint of that range.
New York is fighting with two other teams — Arizona (projected range of 72.1% to 73.3%) and Atlanta (45.2% to 52.8%) — for the final two wild card spots.
The Mets will travel to Truist Park for three games from Tuesday to Thursday before closing their regular season in Milwaukee against a Brewers club that may have nothing left to play for over the weekend.
Conversely, the Braves will host a Royals team potentially fighting for its AL wild-card lives, while the Diamondbacks face a pair of division rivals, including a Padres team that may still have a chance to win the NL West.
PECOTA had the most optimistic forecast for Arizona as of Monday – and would have recommended the NO on Atlanta to make the playoffs and the YES on Arizona before their loss to the Giants.
However, the BatX projections would bet the opposite way on both markets, setting Atlanta at 52.8% (-112) to the YES (+120 listed, 45.5% implied) and Arizona at 27.9% (+258 implied) to the NO (+340 listed, 22.7% implied). An average of the three projections would suggest betting the same way.
Atlanta owns the all-important tiebreaker after winning the season series 5-2. I would consider whether to bet on the defending NL champion Diamondbacks to miss the postseason or the preseason NL favorite Braves to make the playoffs for the seventh consecutive year.
NL West Betting Predictions (Padres vs Dodgers)
The San Diego Padres (magic number of one) have already clinched their season series against the Dodgers (lead 7-3,+10 run differential) and have a chance to steal their division and potentially secure the No. 1 overall seed in the NL in their final six games.
I projected San Diego as +114 underdogs for Tuesday, around +119 for Wednesday (Jack Flaherty vs. Dylan Cease), and +106 for Thursday (Joe Musgrove vs. Walker Buehler), depending upon the bullpen usage in prior games.
I view the Padres as the better overall team and would favor them on a neutral field in two of the three matchups. I'd set the series price at -123 (55.1% implied) for Los Angeles and would take +133 or better on San Diego.
After this all-important rivalry matchup, San Diego will close their season in Arizona while the Dodgers head to Coors Field to face the Rockies.
Projections have San Diego between 4% and 9.4% to win the NL West, with the Dodgers at a corresponding range between 90.8% and 96%.
If you trust the FanGraphs projection (9.4% or +963 implied), you can take a stab at the Padres to win the NL West at +1200 or better if you missed the boat at +3500 after the trade deadline.
The Padres remain my favorite World Series contender, too. Fangraphs (projected 11% or +809 World Series and 18.8% or +432 implied to win the NL Pennant) is higher on San Diego's futures than other systems (projected World Series range of 5.1% to 7.3% from the other three forecasts).
I'd continue to bet Padres' futures to +1000 (World Series) and +500 (NL Pennant). As of Tuesday night, FanDuel had the best available odds (+1500 and +700, respectively).
AL Wild Card Betting Preview (Two Spots for the Mariners, Royals, Tigers and Twins)
The Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays each have less than a 1% chance of making the postseason, and the AL wild-card hunt looks like four teams fighting for two spots. Here's how the math and schedules shake out for the four clubs in the mix:
- Detroit: Projected 63% to 77.4%, Average 68.8% (-220 implied); 3x TB, 3x CHW
- Kansas City: Projected 58.9% to 71.1%, Average 65.9% (-193 implied); 3x @ATL, 3x @WSH
- Minnesota: Projected 48.7% to 52.2%, Average 50.7% (-102 implied); 3x MIA, 3x BAL
- Seattle: Projected 12% to 16.9%, Average 14.1% (+609 implied); 2x @HOU, 3x OAK
Minnesota owns tiebreakers over all three teams; Kansas City has tiebreakers over Detroit and Seattle, and the Mariners own the tiebreaker against the Tigers.
Average Projections like the NO for both Detroit (+285 listed) and Minnesota (+125 listed) and the YES for Kansas City (-175 listed) and Seattle (+650 listed).
The Tigers are the hottest team in baseball and can give Tarik Skubal two more starts, including one against the hapless White Sox.
I invested in Kansas City (at +285) to make the playoffs during the season's first week. Their final six games are on the road, but some projections prefer their chances to Detroit.
Even the most optimistic projection for Minnesota (47.8% or -109 implied NO) would still recommend betting the Twins to miss the playoffs (+120 at DraftKings). Even though — with the tiebreaker — they are essentially a half-game back of two teams with six to play and their next three games are at home against the Marlins.
I'd want at least +733 (12% implied) or better to consider poking the Mariners at longshot odds; they're going to need their wild card rivals to lose to some of the worst teams in baseball.
System Betting the Final Week
Historically, teams with a sub-40 % win rate have overperformed against winning teams in the final week of the regular season, netting a 21% ROI across nearly 200 games since 2005 (43.1% win, +41.3 units for a consistent $100 bettor).
Three series and nine remaining games fit the criteria for the next six days, providing additional support for the Padres' divisional futures and the playoff chances for both the Royals and Mariners:
- Marlins vs. Twins (9/24-9/26)
- White Sox vs. Tigers (9/27-9/29)
- Dodgers vs. Rockies (9/27-9/29)
Additionally, look to bet the Under or pass-on totals as clubs look ahead to the offseason or rest starters for the playoffs in their final series. Since 2005, the below system has netted a 10.8% ROI across a reasonably significant sample (57.8% win rate, +79.9 units):
AL Rookie of the Year Betting Odds (Luis Gil, Colton Cowser and Austin Wells)
To reiterate a few stats from my preseason awards preview, 20 of the past 24 Rookie of the Year winners (83.3%) accumulated more playing time on offense than on the mound, and 18 of the past 24 Rookie of the Year winners (75%) finished atop the rookie leaderboard in their respective league in WAR, with an average ranking of 1.46 among the 24 award recipients.
As a result, I'm surprised to find Luis Gil (2.6 WAR) as an odds-on favorite against Colton Cowser (3.9 WAR) and Austin Wells (3.5). Gil has the lead in bWAR (3.4; 2.9 for Wells and 2.6 for Cowser), but fWAR tends to correlate more closely with award winners.
Gil has 15 wins and a low ERA (3.27), and perhaps his season-long line is more aesthetically pleasing than Cowser's batting line (.244 AVG, 22 HR, 74 R, 64 RBI, 119 wRC+). Still, Cowser is an excellent defender (96th percentile in Outs Above Average) and underrated baserunner, which adds to his overall value, and voters tend to side with position players and higher WAR totals when things are relatively close.
Consider betting on Cowser at +200 or better; he was significantly ahead in the straw poll at the start of September.
NL Rookie of the Year Betting Odds (Jackson Merrill vs Paul Skenes)
Paul Skenes moved back to favorite in the NL Rookie of the Year race once his ERA plunged below 2.00; he'll presumably get one more start in the Bronx against the Yankees.
I bet Jackson Merrill at +500 on August 12 but added Skenes at +420 on September 16 to guarantee profit in this market. I thought the line should be closer to a pick 'em in both cases.
Like the AL race, Merrill has a clear lead in fWAR (5.1 to 4.2). Skenes has the lead in bWAR (6.0 to 4.3) but also a more striking stat line (1.99 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) than Merrill (.292 AVG, 24 HR, 16 SB, 131 wRC+), who provides added value with excellent offense at a critical defensive position.
Hype would tell you there's value on Skenes at -145, even though voters faced a similar decision two years ago between Michael Harris II (4.8 fWAR, 5.2 bWAR) and Spencer Strider (4.9 fWAR, 3.8 bWAR) and ultimately chose the position player.
Unless Skenes blows up in his final start – or Merrill powers the Padres to a division title – I feel most voters will change course and ultimately vote for the historic rookie pitcher.
However, this market appears correctly lined for the first time in weeks. I'd hedge if you stand to profit only on Merill but would otherwise pass.
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