Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and Tuesday picks.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my Tuesday MLB predictions and picks.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks, Tuesday Projections
  |   |   |   |   |
Mets vs Marlins Preview, Moneyline Prediction
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 8 -102o / -118u | -162 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 8 -102o / -118u | +136 |
Kodai Senga (NYM) vs. Sandy Alcantara (MIA)
Sandy Alcantara impressed through the first 14 outs of his Opening Day start — his first since September 2023, following Tommy John surgery. The former NL Cy Young winner made it to the fifth inning (while recording seven strikeouts) before surrendering his first hit, which ultimately triggered a two-out rally and chased him from the game.
Still, Alcantara tossed 91 pitches — after peaking at 48 in spring training — and could potentially extend out to 100 pitches on Tuesday.
Most importantly, Alcantara flashed excellent Stuff+ metrics (112 on his sinker, 114 on his slider, 115 on his curveball) — in line with pre-injury results (107 Stuff+, 111 career) aside from his changeup (93 Stuff+).
Still, since Alcantara's velocity (98.2 mph) returned to pre-injury levels (98 mph in 2023 and 2022) and his breaking balls are sharp, I'd expect him to rediscover the feel for his signature offspeed pitch, which sat a tick below norm (90 mph vs. 91.1 mph career) in his first start back from surgery.
Sandy Alcántara, 98mph ⛽️
7th K pic.twitter.com/9GFC4QNc2g
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 27, 2025
Alcantara posted a 2.90 xERA, 3.29 xFIP, and 17.7% K-BB% during his Cy Young season. Projections call for a projected FIP between 3.48 and 3.81 in 2025.
Still, since he keeps the ball on the ground (career 50.5% ground-ball rate) and out of the bleachers (0.90 HR/9), Alcantara tends to outperform his underlying ERA indicators (career 3.32 ERA, 3.99 xFIP, 4.19 SIERA).
Kodai Senga missed almost the entirety of the 2024 season with a shoulder capsule strain and a subsequent hamstring strain. He made one regular season start, then bombed out in the playoffs (5 IP, 6 H, 7 R, 7 BB, 4 K) while pitching at significantly reduced velocity (91.9 mph fastball, down 2.2 mph vs. career average) in a start against the Dodgers. Senga rediscovered his velocity in a relief appearance one week later, but was equally ineffective.
Projection systems view Senga (projected FIP range of 3.8 to 4.01, projected K-BB% of 15.1% to 16.3%) slightly worse than his 2023 results (3.87 xERA, 3.77 xFIP, 18% K-BB%). He appeared effective in spring (combined 9 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 9 K) but maxed out at 59 pitches on March 20; I wouldn't expect Senga to pitch beyond the fourth or fifth inning.
I projected the Marlins as +120 underdogs (just over 45% implied); bet their moneyline to +130, at a two percent edge compared to my projection.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline (bet to +130)
Nationals vs Blue Jays F5 & Over/Under Pick
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8.5 -108o / -112u | +136 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8.5 -108o / -112u | -162 |
Trevor Williams (WSH) vs. Jose Berrios (TOR)
Despite an excellent 13-start sample in 2024, projections don't like Trevor Williams (2.03 ERA, 3.17 xERA, and 15.8% K-BB% in 2024) as anything better than a back-end starter in 2025 (projected FIP range of 4.55 to 4.72).
Williams increased his slider usage to a career-high rate (34.7% vs. 19% career). Still, he was a luck category merchant, holding opposing offenses to a .267 BABIP (.299 career) and an 80.2% strand rate (73.4% career) alongside the lowest HR/FB rate (4.2% vs. 12.8% career) of his nine major league seasons.
ERA estimators put Williams at a 3.82 xFIP and 3.96 SIERA last season; his ERA was nearly half that, and forecasts expect him to pitch closer to his career averages in 2025.
Jose Berrios (projected FIP range of 4.33 to 4.60) is a much bigger name-brand talent among pitchers — amid a poorly aging seven year, $131 million contract — as he both projects in a similar range as Williams, but also posted significantly worse results than his opponent last season (4.74 xERA, 4.25 xFIP, 12.6% K-BB%).
These teams also feature two of the more ineffective bullpens in baseball. Washington rates 29th in my bullpen power rankings, after ranking 15th in xFIP (4.03) and 22nd in K-BB% last season. Toronto (projected 22nd) posted worse numbers last season (27th in xFIP and K-BB%), but has made more positive additions to its unit since the last trade deadline.
I set the totals at 5.07 runs for the First Five Innings (F5) and 8.98 for the full game; bet F5 Over 4.5 to -125, and the full game Over 8.5 to -105.
Pick: F5 Over 4.5 (bet to -125) | Over 8.5 (be to -105)
Royals vs Brewers Moneyline Bet
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
Michael Lorenzen (KC) vs. Chad Patrick (MIL)
Similar to Trevor Williams, Michael Lorenzen significantly overperformed underlying indicators in 2024, but unlike Williams, Lorenzen's xERA (4.59) aligns with other replacement-level metrics (4.95 xFIP, 6.9% K-BB%, 88 Pitching+, 5.10 botERA) in his profile.
Projection systems aren't buying his 3.31 ERA from 2024, which was fueled by a .236 BABIP (.277 career); his projected FIP range for 2025 is 4.61 to 4.77.
Chad Patrick will start for the scuffling Brewers, who need length from a starter. Patrick won the pitching triple crown in the Triple-A International League last season, posting a 14-1 record with a 2.90 ERA, 14 wins, and 145 strikeouts in 136 1/3 innings (19.1% K-BB%; 4.43 MLB equivalent xFIP).
Projection systems take that major league equivalency from Triple-A and put Patrick between a 4.26 and 4.53 FIP for 2025, which makes him the superior starting pitcher in this matchup.
Patrick throws five different pitch types (four-seamer, cutter, sinker, slider, changeup) but prefers to flood the zone with his three fastballs (combined 79.7% usage rate in 2023).
Despite Milwaukee's poor start, I prefer its bullpen in a vacuum (projected 13th, Kansas City projected 21st) and give them a significant defensive advantage too. However, the Royals have the better offense.
I projected the Brewers near -130 in this matchup and would bet their moneyline up to -120.
Logically, these teams had the exact win total coming into the season, but Milwaukee is at home, and I give them the pitching edge throughout this contest.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline (bet to -121)
Angels vs Cardinals Preview & 3 Picks
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +122 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +143 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -145 |
Kyle Hendricks (LAA) vs. Matthew Liberatore (STL)
