Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and playoff picks and previews for the Wild Card Series Game 1s on Tuesday, October 1.
MLB Playoff Predictions, Picks & Previews for Tuesday — 10/1
Series Moneyline Corner
I don't project prop value in the Astros–Tigers series.
However, I do show actionable value on the Orioles to sweep the Royals 2-0 behind Corbin Burnes and Zach Eflin (projected 35.9% or +179 implied, listed +210 at Caesars). Kansas City might have the starting pitching edge in a potential Game 3. Bet the Orioles' 2-0 exact result prop or their -1.5 games spread to +195 (33.9% implied). I'd want -162 (61.8% implied) or better to lay their series price, with either price target representing at least a two-percent edge or higher than my projected line.
In the NL, I project value on the Milwaukee Brewers' series price (-130 at Caesars), compared to my fair line of -160 (61.5% implied), and would bet that prop up to -147 (59.5% implied). Additionally, I show value on Milwaukee sweeping the Mets 2-0 or their -1.5 games spread (projected +200, listed +250 at FanDuel). I would consider that prop at +220 or better on top of the Brewers' series moneyline.
I would need at least +160 (38.4% implied) to bet on the Braves series price at a similar edge (projected -142, 40.4% implied) against the Padres (+160 at ESPNBet). However, Chris Sale's status is uncertain after missing Monday's doubleheader with back spasms, and I'd need him to pitch one of the first two games in this series – and at full strength – to justify the wager.
If you're looking for additional futures analysis – including Pennant and World Series projections – check out my full playoff preview from Monday.
Tigers vs. Astros
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 6 -115o / -105u | +130 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 6 -115o / -105u | -155 |
Tarik Skubal vs. Framber Valdez
The Astros and Tigers have been the two hottest AL teams in the second half, and their series is a potential passing of the torch moment if the youngest team in MLB (Detroit) can upend an organization that's made seven consecutive ALCS appearances.
Framber Valdez is a slightly lesser starting pitcher (3.36 xERA, 16.2% K-BB%, 102 Pitching+, 3.79 botERA) than AL Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal (2.70 xERA, 25.6% K-BB%, 106 Pitching+, 3.25 botERA), whom I rate as the best starting pitcher in the AL (second behind Paul Skenes).
Still, Valdez has a ton of playoff experience – and a high floor with his extreme groundball tendencies. Moreover, the Astros have the better bullpen (10th in xFIP, 7th in K-BB%, 2nd in Stuff+, 9th in Pitching+, 6th in botERA in the second half) compared to the Tigers (16th, 16th, 30th, 19th, and 20th, respectively).
Additionally, they have the better offense against southpaw pitching (4th in second-half wRC+ vs. 26th for Detroit). The right-handed splits are closer; Houston ranks 10th against righties, and Detroit is 18th over the same span.
Houston's offense offers more power and puts a higher percentage of balls in play. Detroit (30.7%) had the worst strikeout rate in MLB against left-handed pitching in the second half; Houston ranked 10th (22.5%) in MLB over that span and led the AL against lefties (19.3%) over the entire season (Detroit 24th, 24.6%).
The Tigers are the better team defensively (top six by both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average) and on the basepaths (ninth in Baserunning value and second in sprint speed), and have a chance to catch a better team in a short series, where starting pitching depth (which matters more in a more extended series) is likely the most significant differential between these clubs.
Ultimately, I align with the market for game one and the series props.
Royals vs. Orioles
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 6.5 -120o / 100u | +130 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 6.5 -120o / 100u | -155 |
Cole Ragans vs. Corbin Burnes
The Royals and Orioles both limped into the playoffs. Baltimore has been under .500 since July 1 and has played to a .500 record in the second half, while Kansas City went 12-18 in their final 30 games, nearly all without Vinnie Pasquantino, who is questionable to return to the Royals' wild card roster.
I rate Cole Ragans (3.27 xERA, 20.5% K-BB%, 108 Stuff+, 104 Pitching+, 3.50 botERA) on par with Corbin Burnes (3.27 xERA, 17% K-BB%, 120 Stuff+, 107 Pitching+, 3.43 botERA) and don't show value concerning the Game 1 matchup in Baltimore.
If the odds jumped toward +150, I'd take Kansas City on the moneyline. Alternatively, I'd consider an Over 6.5 or Under 7.5 at -110 (projected 7.04) if the total moves in either direction relative to the key number.
Kansas City is the best defensive and baserunning team in the AL (seventh in DRS and baserunning value, first in OAA) – while Baltimore struggles in those areas (20th, 15th, and 21st, respectively).
Still, the Orioles have a far deeper and more balanced lineup (115 wRC+ against all types of pitching; 104 wRC+, 13th vs. lefties in the second half).
The Royals have struggled offensively since losing Vinnie Pasquantino in late August (95 wRC+, 19th in September). While they consistently put the ball in play—with the lowest strikeout rate in the American League—the Royals have shown significant home/road splits all year.
The Royals have the lowest home strikeout rate in MLB (17.9% K%) and rate as a league-average offense at Kauffman Stadium (100 wRC+, 15th), but those data points fall to sixth (20.9%) and 21st (91 wRC+) on the road; where they also rank 29th in walk rate (6.6%).
Baltimore also has a bullpen advantage—although not as drastic as it was in the first half—ranking 11th in xFIP, 1tth in K-BB%, 15th in Pitching+, and 7th in botERA since the All-Star break, compared to rankings of 15th, 17th, 10th, and 17th for Kansas City.
While I don't project value on Game 1 of this series, I'd make Zach Eflin a 62% favorite (-164 implied) against Seth Lugo in Game 2 – and expect to find value in Baltimore's Game 2 moneyline.
As a result, I'll take Baltimore's 2-0 exact result prop, or -1.5 games spread, at +195 or better (projected +179).
Mets vs. Brewers
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 7.5 100o / -120u | +124 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 7.5 100o / -120u | -148 |
Luis Severino vs. Freddy Peralta
The Brewers have proven a difficult matchup for the Mets this season, winning five of six games while completing all 16 stolen base attempts offensively.
Milwaukee is better at the hidden skills – defense and baserunning – than any other playoff team (3rd in DRS, 3rd in OAA, 1st in BsR). They also have an elite bullpen (5th in second-half xFIP, 6th in K-BB%, 3rd in Pitching+, 4th in botERA), which Pat Murphy can deploy more aggressively in three and five-game playoff series as opposed to an NLCS or World Series.
Freddy Peralta (3.88 xERA, 18.2% K-BB%, 100 Pitching+, 4.37 botERA) provides one steady arm atop their rotation, but they'll otherwise have to cobble innings together between Aaron Civale, Frankie Montas and Tobias Myers.
Offensively, the Brewers are nothing special (100 wRC+, below-average K% in the second half, 14th vs. righties), and the Mets have the edge (107 wRC+, 10th in the second half; 11th vs. righties) at the dish.
However, New York has a lesser bullpen and will face some travel and rest deductions after Monday's doubleheader (Jose Iglesias, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, Harrison Bader, and Tyrone Taylor played in both games; Phil Maton and Edwin Diaz each pitched for a second consecutive day).
None of the Mets' starting pitchers are particularly elite. Severino is effective (3.88 xERA, 13.3% K-BB%, 101 Pitching+, 3.84 botERA), but Milwaukee's offense has been slightly better against righties than lefties all season.
With a combination of Sean Manaea, David Peterson, and Jose Quintana, the Mets can force Milwaukee into their slightly lesser split in Games 2 and 3.
I don't project value on either side of the moneyline for Game 1, but I would bet the Under 7.5 at -116 or better (projected 6.81).
Additionally, bet the Brewers' series price (to -147), and consider poking their odds to sweep or cover the series spread (-1.5 games) to +220.
I'll just lay the juice on their series line before Game 1 and wait to bet Milwaukee on the moneyline in Game 2. The +250 odds for Milwaukee to sweep, alongside a -135 Game 1 price, indicates their Game 2 moneyline will be around +100. However, I'd make it closer to -115 (assuming Civale vs. Manaea) and probably take -105 or better on the Brewers for Game 2.
Braves vs. Padres
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 7 -120o / 100u | +150 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 7 -120o / 100u | -180 |
AJ Smith Shawver vs. Michael King
Editor's Note: Smith-Shawver was announced as the Braves' starter after this story was published.
Chris Sale was a last-minute scratch from Monday's doubleheader before the Braves' must-win Game 2 against the Mets.
It didn't appear to be cunning – to see if they could make the playoffs but still save Sale for a Game 1 in the wild card round; the Braves are genuinely protecting an injury-prone asset coming off a Cy Young campaign who is owed $22m for 2025 (with an $18m club option for 2026).
Keeping Sale healthy for next season—when Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuna Jr. rejoin the Braves—seems even more vital than his pitching this October.
Max Fried could get the ball in Game 1 on short rest (last pitched on Friday) after Reynaldo Lopez (last started on Saturday) worked an inning in relief on Monday.
Otherwise, Atlanta will have to cobble together innings with their elite bullpen, which had Joe Jimenez and Raisel Iglesias throw in both ends of Monday's doubleheader.
I rate these bullpens – who ranked first and second in second-half xFIP and K-BB% – as the two best in baseball. San Diego also posted the highest Stuff+ rating (122), Pitching+ rating (106), and the lowest botERA (3.39) among bullpens in the second half. However, given the relative rest for both units, the Padres should have a decent edge in Game 1.
You can also factor in some travel and rest deductions for Atlanta's lineup, which used eight of nine starters in both of its Monday lineups before flying to the West Coast.
Michael King was ultra-impressive in his first full season as a starting pitcher (3.54 xERA, 19% K-BB%, 100 Pitching+, 3.81 botERA), posting better numbers in the second half (3.27 vs. 3.62 xFIP 19.8% vs. 18.6% K-BB%) while clearing his previous career-high in innings pitched by nearly 70 frames (173 2/3 vs. 104 2/3 last season).
Since Fernando Tatis Jr. returned to the Padres' lineup in early September, San Diego has a 109 wRC+ (6th), tied with Atlanta for sixth in MLB, and they own the lowest strikeout rate in baseball by a wide margin.
Atlanta doesn't have a single starting pitcher available on regular rest for Tuesday, and their bullpen is likely down its two best relievers for Game 1.
I will pass on this series until we get more information on Sale's back. Still, the prognosis seems poor, and I'm inclined to allocate more toward my Padres futures by poking exact World Series matchup props at longshot odds now that their NL Pennant and World Series odds have continued to move in.
As a reminder, if you manually parlay AL and NL Pennant winners together, you can likely get better odds than betting into exact World Series matchup prop markets at the same book.
Zerillo's MLB Predictions & Picks for Tuesday, October 1
- Baltimore Orioles, Exact Series Result: 2-0 (+210, 0.5u) at Caesars
- Milwaukee Brewers, Wild Card Series Price (-130, Risk 1u) at Caesars
- New York Mets / Milwaukee Brewers, Under 7.5 (-115, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -116)
