Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season. We've reached the final chapter of the 2024 MLB season with Dodgers vs Yankees in the World Series.
The goal for Opening Pitch remains the same for the Fall Classic: Highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite World Series bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every World Series game are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our MLB Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best World Series Game 4 lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and expert picks and preview for Dodgers vs Yankees Game 4 on Tuesday, October 29.
World Series Game 4 Predictions & Expert Picks, Preview
MLB Futures Update
Below are my updated series moneyline and prop projections for the 2024 World Series before Game 4:
The Dodgers' odds of winning the series 4-0 or covering their -3.5 games spread should match their Game 4 moneyline odds, in addition to the odds for the series to last exactly four games.
Similarly, the Yankees' +3.5 games spread and the odds for the series to go over 4.5 games should match their own Game 4 price. Their odds of winning the series should also match their odds of winning 4-3 in the correct score or exact result market.
I'd need at least +1624 (5.8% implied) to back the Yankees to rally to win this series from a 3-0 deficit — only the 2004 Red Sox have completed such a comeback in MLB history. The 2020 Astros are the only team besides the 2004 Red Sox to force a Game 7 after trailing 3-0.
Dodgers 4-2 (projected +498, listed +500) is the closest thing I can find to an edge in the futures market at this point, but I'd probably want +537 (15.7% implied).
Dodgers vs Yankees Game 4
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -135 |
Bullpen Game (LAD) vs. RHP Luis Gil (NYY)
Luis Gil has only pitched once this postseason, in Game 4 of the ALCS in Cleveland on Oct. 18. That start came after a significant layoff (his final regular season appearance was on Sept. 28), alleviating some concerns about his shorter 11-day layoff since facing the Guardians.
Still, Gil struggled with command in the first inning of that lone playoff start, and he faces a far more difficult test in a Dodgers offense that has ranked as the best in MLB since Max Muncy returned to the fold in late August (133 wRC+ against righties).
Muncy — in addition to Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Gavin Lux — also puts Gil into his lesser split (career 3.99 xFIP, 18.9% K-BB% vs. righties; 4.93 xFIP, 10.0% K-BB% vs. lefties).
Gil is all fastball-slider (54%/46%) to righties, but he goes more fastball-heavy (68%) against lefties while splitting the remaining usage between his slider and changeup. Gil's changeup is effective (.306 xWOBA), and he should probably throw it more because he gets away with the fastball against righties (.348 xWOBA), but lefties have torched the pitch (.479).
I'll consider walk props for Ohtani, Freeman and Muncy. That said, Gil may not be long for this game with the Yankees playing for their season.
Yankees manager Aaron Boone used seven relievers on Monday behind Clarke Schmidt, but none of them tossed more than 17 pitches. Jake Cousins and Clay Holmes made their third appearance in four days.
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts used six relievers on Monday behind Walker Buehler, with Daniel Hudson (22), Ryan Brasier (22) and Michael Kopech (24) each surpassing 20 pitches. Kopech, plus lefties Ryan Vesia (four pitches) and Anthony Banda (10) each pitched in their third consecutive game in this series, too.
Roberts will turn to a bullpen game on Tuesday and will deploy his high-leverage relievers once again with a lead, but you should see their long relievers (Brent Honeywell, Landon Knack and Ben Casparius) factor into the contest in the early or middle innings:
Casparius has eye-catching stuff (140 Stuff+ on his cutter, 129 on his slider, 145 on his curveball) but showed spotty command in the minors (11.6% walk rate). Honeywell also has plus secondary stuff, which includes a slider and screwball — a pitch he's emphasized more since arriving in Los Angeles:
Brent Honeywell is the first pitcher to throw a screwball in the postseason in the pitch-tracking era (since 2008) pic.twitter.com/wxPyvp4Kgw
— David Adler (@_dadler) October 14, 2024
I set the Yankees as -120 favorites (54.5% implied) in Game 4. I would bet the Dodgers at +125 (44.5% implied) or better.
Temperatures will be warmer in the Bronx on Tuesday (60 degrees at first pitch) than Monday (52 degrees), with a 7 mph cross breeze toward third base.
I set the total at 7.95 runs with pitcher-friendly umpire Doug Eddings behind the dish (career 54.3% under; +25.3u for a consistent $100 bettor; +4.2% ROI). Bet Under 8.5 to -110.
The total for Game 4 opened at 8.5 (juiced over) and 9.5 (juiced under) at different books; I bet both sides (with double the stake on the Under) to hunt a rare middle at a key number. I wouldn't have bet the over if I had not seen an opportunity to middle (without knowing where the total would settle).
Zerillo's MLB Predictions & World Series Picks for Tuesday, October 29
- Luis Gil, Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to +110)
- Under 9.5 (-122, 1u) at FanDuel (bet to 8.5, -110)
- Over 8.5 (-105, 0.5u) at Caesars (pass unless you also have Under 9.5)
