Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Wednesday, August 28.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Odds & Previews for Wednesday
Sean Zerillo's MLB Royals vs. Guardians Best Bet
Michael Wacha (KCR) vs. Tanner Bibee (CLE)
The Royals have taken three of the first four games on the road against the Guardians, clinching the tiebreaker over their divisional rival with a 7-2 record in head-to-head matchups this season.
The teams have four games remaining, including Wednesday's contest in Cleveland and a three-game series in Kanas City beginning Monday.
On Sunday night, Fangraphs had Cleveland at 57.8% to win the AL Central with a three-game lead, compared to Minnesota at 25.7% and Kansas City at 16.5%. The Royals have more than doubled their chances (to 38.5%) in the past few days. Available odds aren't enticing on either of those clubs or Minnesota (projected 20-23%) to win the Central as of now.
Still, if you tailed my futures, you should have plus money on the Guardians (+250 preseason) and Royals (+285 on April 17) to make the postseason. And we'll hope our Guardians divisional ticket (+400 preseason) can get to the window, too.
Cleveland should have a significant bullpen edge in Wednesday's contest. Michael Lorenzen left Tuesday's game with an injury in the second inning, and the Royals had to deploy six relievers, including two for multi-inning stints and a trio of high-leverage arms for the second consecutive day.
Guardians' relievers have posted better results (3rd in xFIP, 4th in K-BB%, 14th in Stuff+, 15th in Pitching+) than the Royals' bullpen (27th in xFIP, 29th in K-BB%, 29th in Stuff+, 24th in Pitching), although the former has pitched closer to a league-average unit in the second half. Still, the Guardians used their "B" bullpen on Wednesday — and saved their high-leverage relievers in defeat — while the Royals used their best arms again on the heels of a doubleheader.
Moreover, I project Tanner Bibee (3.73 xERA, 20.8% K-BB%, 100 Stuff+, 106 Pitching+, 3.52 botERA) as a more effective starting pitcher than Michael Wacha (4.34 xERA, 13.7% K-BB%, 92 Stuff+, 99 Pitching+, 3.46 botERA). Projections tend to agree, forecasting Bibee's rest-of-season FIP between 3.69 and 3.80, compared to Wacha's range of 4.20 to 4.28.
Kansas City retains a clear offensive edge (12th vs. 20th against right-handed pitching), particularly since the All-Star break (126, 4th vs. 83, 26th). Still, my model finds them overvalued amid a scorching second half (23-13, a 103-win pace), while the Guardians have faltered (17-20, 72-win pace) and let slip a once comfortable division lead.
Bets: Guardians F5 Moneyline (-135 or better) | Guardians Full-Game Moneyline (-135 or better)
Sean Zerillo's Astros vs. Phillies Predictions, Picks, Previews
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) vs. Taijuan Walker (PHI)
The Phillies may cede the No. 1 seed in the National League if they continue to use Taijuan Walker (6.69 xERA, 8.7% K-BB%, 89 Stuff+, 95 Pitching+, 5.40 botERA) in September. Walker's fastball velocity (91.4 mph) is down more than three mph in three years – and his Statcast lollipops are nearly all blue, ranking in the 27th percentile or lower in every pitching indicator.
At 93-94 mph (93.9 career), Walker was a serviceable, mid-rotation arm; at 91-92 mph, he's a replacement-level pitcher. Projections agree, putting Walker's rest-of-season FIP projections between 4.85 and 5.06.
After a rough two and a half months to begin his MLB career (6.36 ERA, 4.72 xFIP, 11% K-BB%) Spencer Arrighetti (3.91 xERA, 17.1% K-BB%, 93 Stuff+, 99 Pitching+, 3.73 botERA) has flashed signs of a breakout over his past ten starts (3.53 ERA, 3.44 xFIP, 24.1% K-BB%). Arrighetti has a sharp cutter and two plus breaking balls (124 Stuff+ Slider, 113 Curveball). It could make sense to dial back his fastball usage (41.3%), considering it grades out poorly (89 Stuff+) and has produced dreadful results (.274 xBA, .475 xSLG, .365 xWOBA) despite elite extension (95th percentile).
The Astros' likeliest playoff starters are Framber Valdez, Yusei Kikuchi, Hunter Brown, and Justin Verlander. Still, Arrighetti — who just surpassed his 2023 total for innings pitched (124 2/3) — gives Houston another potentially dangerous reliever to turn over a lineup once or twice in October.
Bets: Astros F5 Moneyline (-123 or better)
Sean Zerillo's Padres vs. Cardinals MLB Predictions & Picks
Jose Musgrove (SDP) vs. Andre Pallante (STL)
Andre Pallante remains a bit of a unicorn with a 62.7% groundball rate (67.3% career) – easily the highest for a starting pitcher – ahead of Jose Soriano (59.9%), Framber Valdez (59.2%), Cristopher Sanchez (58.8%) and Max Fried (58.1%). In fact, since his 2022 debut, Pallante has the second-highest groundball rate among all pitchers (Clay Holmes at 69.4%).
Pallante has subpar strikeout (15th percentile) and walk (33rd percentile) rates (8.8% K-BB%; 12th percentile), but he avoids barrels (3.4% in 2024, 3.4% career; 96th percentile) and limits hard contact (83rd percentile in average exit velocity).
The Padres don't strike out anyway, which could benefit Pallante and get San Diego to hit into weak outs.
Joe Musgrove may be rounding into form for the Padres, posting seven shutout innings (1 H, 0 BB, 9 K) in his last start against the Mets. His pitch modeling metrics in that outing were outstanding: 110 Stuff+, 115 Location+, 110 Pitching+, 2.48 botERA (106, 102, 101, 4.07 in 2023). Despite dealing with a bone spur in his elbow, Musgrove looked as sharp as he has been the past two years (3.27 xERA in 2022, 3.11 in 2023).
I projected this total at 7.68 runs.
Bets: Under 8.5 (8, -103 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, August 28
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Atlanta Braves F5 (-139, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -145)
- Cleveland Guardians F5 (-122, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to -135)
- Cleveland Guardians (-130, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -135)
- Houston Astros F5 (-106, 0.75u) at FanDuel (bet to -123; reduce past -115)
- Miami Marlins / Colorado Rockies, Over 10.5 (-115, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to 11, -105)
- San Diego Padres / St. Louis Cardinals, Under 8.5 (-108, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to -122 or 8, -103)
