Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 Major League Baseball season, where we provide expert MLB predictions today based on advanced analytics and comprehensive data analysis.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis throughout the MLB season.
My projections for every MLB game on Wednesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Wednesday, August 21.
MLB Predictions Today, Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (Wednesday, August 21)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Red Sox vs. Astros Best Bet: Boston's Bullpen MLB Moneyline Picks
Cooper Criswell (BOS) vs. Justin Verlander (HOU)
This season, the Red Sox have been a break-even team in games started by Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, or Kutter Crawford, costing a consistent $100 bettor $13. However, In bullpen games started by Cooper Criswell (9-4) – or any other reliever – Boston is 16-13, netting a consistent $100 bettor $528 on an 18.2% ROI.
Criswell (3.88 xERA, 11.2% K-BB%, 99 Pitching+, 3.34 botERA) has solid underlying indicators on the season but struggled as the bulk reliever in his last outing against Baltimore after coming off of the COVID-19 IL—with nine days between outings.
Justin Verlander (3.91 xERA, 14.2% K-BB%, 104 Pitching+, 4.64 botERA) will return from the IL on Wednesday after a solid rehab showing in Triple-A.
Verlander has looked mortal for the past two seasons – as his velocity and strikeout minus walk rates have dipped. In 2022, Verlander averaged 95 mph on his fastball and posted a 23.4% K-BB%; his velocity is down to 93.5 mph this season, and his K-BB% is down nearly 10% (from 23.4%).
Verlander has always outpitched his underlying metrics (career 3.25 ERA vs. 3.75 xFIP), but projections put his rest-of-season FIP between 4.28 to 4.54, on par with Criswell (4.13-4.49) and Boston's bullpen.
Overnight, I projected Alex Bregman – who has missed five consecutive games with elbow inflammation – IN Houston's lineup for Wednesday afternoon; if he's still out, Boston's chances would increase by another 1.5-2% – and you can lower the price targets to +118
Bets: Red Sox F5 Moneyline (+125 or better) | Red Sox Full-Game Moneyline (+125 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Rockies vs. Nationals Prediction, Pick, Preview: Best Bet On Colorado
Tanner Gordon (COL) vs. Mitchell Parker (WSN)
Tanner Gordon is coming off of a brutal outing against the Diamondbacks in Arizona – where he failed to make it through the first innings (2/3 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 0 K).
Otherwise, Gordon has shown a decent skillset, including above-average command (4.1% walk rate, 108 Location+) over a five-pitch mix.
Mitchell Parker (4.58 xERA, 13.7% K-BB%) has an identical Stuff+ rating (88) as Gordon with lesser command (6.3% walk rate, 100 Location+). Their botERA (4.30 and 4.34) figures are virtually identical too.
Parker's (108 Stuff+) and curveball (99 Stuff+) combination provide a higher ceiling than Gordon's mix. And Parker has more career longevity as a southpaw; otherwise, I don't project much difference between them.
Both bullpens rank in the bottom ten since the trade deadline – when Washington (23rd in xFIP, 25th in K-BB%, 17th in Pitching+) dealt away multiple key relievers. In Wednesday's matchup, I'd only give them a slight bullpen edge over Colorado (27th, 29th, and 23rd, respectively).
The Nationals have the better offense, too, but the Rockies are the superior defensive club. Colorado ranks 12th (+19) in Defensive Runs Saved and 17th in Outs Above Average (0) this season, while Washington ranks 27th (-34) and 25th (-20), respectively.
Bets: Rockies Full-Game Moneyline (+128 or better)
Sean Zerillo's Angels vs. Royals MLB Best Bet: The Over/Under Pick
Johnny Cueto (LAA) vs. Michael Lorenzen (KCR)
While the wind should be blowing in (7-9 mph from right field) on Wednesday at Kauffmann Stadium – downgrading my park factor by about five percent compared to a typical day in Kansas City – I still projected 9.86 runs in this matchup.
Michael Lorenzen has limited runs for Kansas City since the trade deadline (2.87 ERA in 15 2/3 IP), but I wouldn't say he's pitched well (5.13 xFIP), he's just gotten lucky (.239 BABIP, 87% strand rate).
That xFIP is a near match for Lorenzen's season-long mark (5.01), with his xERA (4.70) also at a career-worst level. His velocity and effectiveness have worsened each season since becoming a starting pitcher.
Lorenzen's fastball is just 93.8 mph this season—down a half tick from last season and an entire tick from his career average—and his Stuff+ rating has dropped to a career-low, too (94 vs. 99 career).
There's an entire run gap between Lorenzen's actual and expected ERA marks, thanks to a .242 BABIP (.278 career) and an 81.6% stand rate (74.4% career).
Johnny Cueto (6.02 ERA, 5.13 xERA last season for Miami) will make his 2024 debut for the Angels. He posted concerning pitch modeling metrics (72 Stuff+, 95 Pitching+) in Triple-A, representing career lows (averaged 80 and 99 since 2020) at the MLB level.
Rest-of-season projections put Cueto's average FIP at 5.17; I'll take the Over at that number (7.02 across 13 appearances last season) – I'd project Cueto to finish closer to 5.5.
Bets: Over 9 (9.5, -105 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Bets, Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, August 21
For additional bet notifications, follow me in the Action Network App. Here are today’s MLB picks, providing daily picks to help you make informed wagers. The best MLB bets are highlighted to maximize your profits through expert advice and insights.
Stay tuned for detailed predictions and forecasts for upcoming MLB games, helping you make informed decisions with our expert analysis.
- Baltimore Orioles / New York Mets, Under 8.5 (-105, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM (flat to -115)
- Boston Red Sox F5 (+135, 0.25u) at BallyBet (small to +125)
- Boston Red Sox (+133, 0.5u; bet to +125)
- Colorado Rockies (+148, 0.5u; bet to +128)
- Detroit Tigers / Chicago Cubs, Under 8.5 (-115, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (flat to 7.5, -108)
- Los Angeles Angels / Kansas City Royals, Over 9 (-110, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to 9.5, -105)
- Parlay (+184, 0.3u) at FanDuel: New York Mets F5 (-128) & New York Yankees F5 (-168); parlay to -130 & -175, respectively)
- Philadelphia Phillies / Atlanta Braves, Under 8 (+100, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -101)
- Seattle Mariners / Los Angeles Dodgers, Over 7.5 (-110, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -115)
- Tampa Bay Rays / Oakland Athletics, Under 7.5 (-110, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -112)
