MLB Predictions Wednesday | Expert Picks & Previews Today
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Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can find my projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Wednesday, July 24.
MLB Predictions Wednesday | Expert Picks & Previews Today
Frankie Montas (OAK) vs. Allan Winans (ATL)
The Braves will recall Allan Winans (career 4.21 xFIP, 15.1% K-BB%, 76 Stuff+, 103 Location+) to start the first game of Wednesday's doubleheader.
The 28-year-old righty has pitched well in Triple-A (4.32 xFIP, 15.7% K-BB%, 81 Stuff+, 104 Location+, 99 Pitching+) but still projects as an average to below-average arm at the MLB level.
That said, I still may prefer Winans to Frankie Montas (4.78 xERA, 8.9% K-BB%), whose pitch modeling metrics have dipped of late (96 Stuff+, 95 Location+ in the past 30 days vs. 100, 101 in the 66 innings prior).
Over that four-start span, Montas has permitted 20 hits, 15 runs, 11 walks, and six home runs in 22 1/3 innings — and I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit the injured list if the Reds don't flip him by next Wednesday's trading deadline.
Bets: Braves Game 1 Full-Game Moneyline (-140 or better)
Nick Pivetta (BOS) vs. Cal Quantrill (COL)
Nick Pivetta (3.55 xERA, 22.9% K-BB%, 135 Stuff+, 106 Location+, 109 Pitching+, 2.93 botERA) provides a substantial starting pitching advantage against Cal Quantrill (4.44 xERA, 9.1% K-BB%, 93 Stuff+, 97 Location+, 95 Pitching+, 4.86 botERA).
Pivetta owns the highest Stuff+ figure (135) and Pitching+ rating (109) among qualified starters (min. 80 innings), ahead of Jared Jones (127, 109), Corbin Burnes (116, 108), Dylan Cease (124, 108), Zack Wheeler (106, 108), and Paul Skenes (110, 108).
Among that group of 126 pitchers, Pivetta owns the third-best fastball (129 Stuff+), the third-best slider or sweeper (152 Stuff+), the seventh-best cutter (111), and the 18th-best curveball (111 Stuff+).
Since transitioning to the Red Sox rotation on July 31 last season, Pivetta ranks fourth in strikeout rate and fifth in K-BB% (25.1%) among 110 qualified pitchers (min. 100 innings pitched).
Offensively, the Red Sox have handled righties (9th) better than lefties (17th), particularly over the past thirty days (135 wRC+, first vs. RHP vs. 71 wRC+, 29th vs. LHP).
Bets: Red Sox F5 Moneyline (-175 or better)
Joe Ross (MIL) vs. Justin Steele (CHC)
On a typical day at Wrigley Field, I would have set this total closer to eight runs.
Given the wind and weather for Wednesday's matchup, I downgraded the run-scoring environment by more than ten percent and set my projection at 6.79 runs.
Temperatures should be in the mid-70s, with 8-10 mph winds blowing in at first pitch, triggering multiple Action Labs systems for under bettors:
The above system has a lifetime 54.7% win rate with a 5.5% ROI, including a 53.4% win rate and 2.9% ROI since sports betting legalization in 2019.
However, the system tends to only matter in the second half of the season — with a lifetime 51.2% win rate and -0.9% ROI in March, April, May, or June — compared to a 58.2% win rate and 11.9% ROI from July through October.
The system is also 128-90-17 (58.7%) with a +12.7% ROI at Wrigley Field.
Bets: Under 7.5 (-117 or better)
Diamondbacks vs. Royals
Ryne Nelson (ARI) vs. Michael Wacha (KCR)
I discussed Ryne Nelson (4.38 xERA, 11.5% K-BB%) a lot in the early months of this season as a pitcher with strong pitch-modeling indicators despite mediocre results.
Nelson has blossomed of late, coming off a career-best nine strikeout-game against the Cubs, posting a 3.81 ERA and 4.22 xFIP since June 1 and a 2.22 ERA with a 3.18 xFIP since July 1.
Nelson's pitch modeling metrics (100 Stuff+, 108 Location+, 107 Pitching+ in the past thirty days) have also improved recently (97, 105, 102 before June 24).
At this point, he's likely equal to or better than Michael Wacha (3.89 xERA, 14.3% K-BB%, 91 Sutff+, 102 Location+, 100 Pitching+), whose own pitch modeling metrics are moving in the opposite direction (88 Stuff+, 98 Locaiton+, 98 Pitching+ in the past thirty days) as his opponent.
The primary concern is the Royals' stark home/road splits. They rank first in K% (16.9%) and 18th in walk rate (8.2%) at home, compared to fifth (20.7%) and 29th (6.2%) respectively on the road.
Bets: Diamondbacks F5 Moneyline (+105 or better) | Diamondbacks Full-Game Moneyline (+105 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Wednesday, July 24
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- Arizona Diamondbacks F5 (+110, 0.25u) at BallyBet (small to +105)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+115, 0.5u) at bet365 (bet to +105)
- Arizona Diamondbacks / Kansas City Royals, Under 9 (-105, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (flat to -105)
- Atlanta Braves Game 1 (-125, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -140)
- Boston Red Sox F5 (-150, 0.5u) at bet365 (bet to -175)
- Chicago Cubs F5 (-140, 0.25u) at bet365 (small to -155)
- Cleveland Guardians -138 (Risk 0.5u; flat to -140)
- Cleveland Guardians / Detroit Tigers, Over 7 (-110, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars (flat to -114)
- Milwaukee Brewers / Chicago Cubs, Under 7.5 (+100, 0.5u; bet to -117)
- Minnesota Twins (+138, 0.5u; bet to +130)
- New York Mets / New York Yankees, Over 8.5 (-105, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to -113)
- San Diego Padres F5 (-105, 0.25u) at DraftKings (small to -108)
- San Diego Padres (-105, 0.25u) at WynnBet (small to -112)
- San Diego Padres / Washington Nationals, Over 8.5 (-117, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to 9, -107)
- Tampa Bay Rays / Toronto Blue Jays, Under 8.5 (-110, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -118 or 9, +100)
- Texas Rangers F5 (-220, 0.25u) at bet365 (small to -233)
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