MLB Predictions Wednesday | Expert Picks & Previews (6/26)

Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.

The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.

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Here are my favorite bets for Wednesday, June 26.

Ryan Feltner (COL) vs. Spencer Arrighetti (HOU)

Yesterday, I noted that Ryan Feltner has the most significant differential (+1.95) between actual ERA (6.02) and expected ERA or xERA (4.07) this season among qualified starters, ahead of Pablo Lopez (+1.84) and Aaron Civale (+1.21).

Spencer Arrighetti (6.36 ERA, 4.54 xERA, 11% K-BB%, 97 Pitching+) has been similarly unlucky, with a .360 BABIP and a differential of 1.8 runs between his actual ERA and xERA.

Feltner has a .344 BABIP (.322 career) and a 57% strand rate (61.7% career), which are significantly lower than the MLB averages (.287 and 71.7%, respectively) since he pitches in Coors Field. I'd expect Arrighetti (68.2% strand rate) to regress toward those levels, but I view him as a below-average arm (85 Stuff+, 98 Location+, 97 Pitching+).

Under the hood, Feltner appears to be a league-average starter (3.87 xFIP, 14.3% K-BB%, 99 Stuff+, 101 Location+, 102 Pitching+) with three above-average offerings (119 changeup, 110 slider, 105 curveball) that he's thrown more than 52% of the time combined this season.

I set this total at 7.76 runs, but I also lean toward the underdog. I'll wait for the best price on the latter.

Bets: Under 8.5 (8, +100 or better) | Rockies Full-Game Moneyline (+165 or better)

DJ Herz (WAS) vs. Dylan Cease (SD)

Based on his strikeout and walk rates in the minors (33.5% and 15.3%, respectively), DJ Herz was supposed to have big stuff and shaky command. Scouts gave Herz a 70-grade changeup — pitching models put his offspeed pitch at 106 Stuff+, and the remainder of his arsenal is below average (92 Stuff+).

Aside from his dominant effort against the Marlins (6 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 13 K), Herz has scuffled. Over the remainder of the season, I'd expect him to pitch toward his projected FIP range (4.53 to 4.71) or pitching model botERA (4.35) — at best.

Dylan Cease has been roughed up in his past two outings (11 runs allowed in 8 1/3 innings), but his velocity and Stuff+ ratings have remained intact.

Results wise, Cease has split the difference between his dominant 2022 and disappointing 2023 seasons while showing the best command (23.4% K-BB%, 107 Pitching+) of his career.

As I've discussed in other articles, Cease is throwing his best pitch (slider) more often than ever before (47% vs. 36.4% career and 38.6% in 2023), driving an additional spike in his strikeout rate compared to last season.

Bets: Padres F5 Moneyline (-188 or better)

Carlos Carrasco (CLE) vs. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL)

Baltimore has a severe starting pitching advantage with Grayson Rodriguez (3.80 xERA, 18.8% K-BB%, 120 StufF+, 107 Pitching+) facing Carlos Carrasco (4.92 xERA, 10.7% K-BB%, 92 Stuff+, 96 Pitching+).

Rodriguez is a top-10 starting pitcher by both Stuff+ and Pitching+. Since returning from his IL stint, his K-BB% has been north of 20%, and he is looking to repeat his dominant second half from 2023.

I'd give Cleveland the bullpen advantage if both bullpens were well rested, but the Guardians are likely down both Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith on Wednesday — each has worked three times in four days.

Baltimore owns the better splits against right-handed pitching this season (3rd vs. 11th in wRC+), and over the past 30 days, it leads all teams with a 148 wRC+ against right-handed pitching; Cleveland ranks 3rd (136 wRC+) over the same span.

I set this total around 9.9 runs in favorable offensive conditions (90 degrees at first pitch, 7-9 mph winds blowing out to center field).

Bets: Orioles F5 Moneyline (-177 or better) | Over 9.5 (-105 or better)

Luis Gil (NYY) vs. Sean Manaea (NYM)

Luis Gil is coming off his first blowup this season (1 1/3 IP, 8 H, 7 R, 2 BB, 1 K) against the Orioles, where his shaky command (12.4% walk rate, 95 Location+) caught up with him.

Gil should continue to generate weak contact and maintain a low BABIP, but a .222 BABIP is likely unsustainable. Mariano Rivera, whom I consider a master of weak contact, carried a career .263 BABIP.

The Mets offense has been scorching of late, leading MLB with a 132 wRC+ over the past 30 days. And hitters like Brandon Nimmo (4.24 pitches per plate appearance, 11th in MLB), Pete Alonso (3.87, 79th) and Francisco Lindor (3.80, 98th) can wear Gil down with long plate appearances.

The Yankees (3.98) see more pitches per plate appearance than any offense except for the Mariners (4.05). They may need to be aggressive against Sean Manaea, who has shown excellent command over the past two months (18.3% K-BB%, 6.3% walk rate, 100 Location+, 3.81 xFIP) compared to the first five weeks of the season (9.4% K-BB%, 14.1% walk rate, 95 Location+).

Conversely, Gil has seen his pitch modeling metrics dip in the past 30 days (108 Stuff+, 91 Location+, 97 Pitching+) compared to the first two months of the season (115 Stuff+, 96 Location+, 102 Pitching+).

Gil's fastball rating has increased from 126 to 134, but his secondary offerings have dipped from 113 (slider) and 95 (changeup) to 103 and 71, respectively.

Bets: Mets Full-Game Moneyline (+123 or better)

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• Baltimore Orioles F5 (-165, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -177)
• Baltimore Orioles / Cleveland Guardians, Over 9.5 (+102, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -105)
• Chicago White Sox (+168, 0.25u) at WynnBet (small to +150)
• Colorado Rockies (+171, 0.25u) at WynnBet (small to +155)
• Colorado Rockies / Houston Astros, Under 8.5 (-115, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -118 or 8, +100)
• Miami Marlins (+190, 0.25u) at WynnBet (small to +165)
• Minnesota Twins / Arizona Diamondbacks, Under 9 (+100, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -115)
• New York Mets (+135, 0.5u) at ESPNBet (bet to +123)
• Philadelphia Phillies / Detroit Tigers, Over 9 (+100, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -108)
• Pittsburgh Pirates (+126, 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to +115)
• San Diego Padres F5 (-175, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -188)
• Toronto Blue Jays / Boston Red Sox, Under 10 (-105, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -115)

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