Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Wednesday, May 1.
MLB Predictions Wednesday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (May 1)
Rays vs. Brewers
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +128 | 8.5 -104o / -118u | -126 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -154 | 8.5 -104o / -118u | +108 |
Zach Eflin vs. Colin Rea
I set Wednesday's total in Milwaukee at 7.6 runs and would bet under 8 to -106.
Zach Eflin has seen his swinging strike and strikeout rates regress toward career averages this season, and his ERA (4.08) has moved toward his career mark (4.27).
Still, Eflin retains elite command and has maintained a career-best 2.7% walk rate after ranking second in baseball at 3.4% (his previous career best) last season.
Eflin leads all 76 qualified starters with a 113 Location+ rating (ahead of Joe Ryan 111 and George Kirby 110) in 2024. Even with a reduced strikeout rate, I like Eflin toward the average end of his projected FIP range (3.28 to 3.82; 3.47 average) for the remainder of the year.
Colin Rea is the more significant concern regarding the under. He's overachieved with a 3.25 ERA (compared to a 6.14 xERA), while showing declining velocity, Stuff+ numbers and strikeout and walk rates compared to prior seasons.
I have downgraded Rea, but I still like the under as both teams can air out their bullpens before an off-day on Thursday.
Bet: Under 8.5 (Or Under 8, -106 or better)
Braves vs. Mariners
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +100 | 7.5 -118o / -104u | -172 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -118 | 7.5 -118o / -104u | +144 |
Chris Sale vs. Emerson Hancock
Chris Sale looks as sharp as he has in a few years, posting a 3.10 xERA and 3.03 xFIP through five starts while showing vastly improved pitching modeling metrics (112 Stuff+, 103 Location+) compared to last season (94 Stuff+, 100 Location+).
Last season, Sale didn't have a single above-average pitch, according to Stuff+, but his slider has improved from 92 to 134 year over year, and he's using it more frequently than ever before (44.2% vs. 37.5% last season and 29.1% career).
Despite solid command, Emerson Hancock doesn't have a high ceiling with his current arsenal (84 Stuff+ with zero offerings above 89).
Projections (projected FIP range of 4.6 to 4.92) and indicators (5.36 xERA, 4.31 xFIP) view Hancock, who was the sixth overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, as a No. 5 starter who should be chewed up by Atlanta's offense.
I projected Sale and the Braves as a -190 favorite on the first five (F5) innings moneyline.
Bet: Braves F5 Moneyline (-175 or better)
Phillies vs. Angels
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -104 | 8 -110o / -110u | -176 |
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 8 -110o / -110u | +148 |
Zack Wheeler vs. Patrick Sandoval
Zack Wheeler is pitching like he may finally capture an NL Cy Young Award, with a career-best 31.1% strikeout rate (24.7% career, 26.9% last season), 2.35 xERA and 2.79 xFIP.
The Phillies ace also has career-best marks in swinging strike rate and called strike plus whiff rate, justifying the bump in K% — a stat that stabilizes a bit more quickly than other data points.
Additionally, Wheeler's ground-ball rate is at 52.8%, which represents an 11.6% bump over last season and the second-highest mark of his career (55.9% in a limited 2020 sample).
Perhaps adding a splitter (12.2% usage rate) optimized his pitch mix. This season, the offering has induced a .086 xBA, a .106 xSLG and a .139 xWOBA.
Zack Wheeler added a Splitter to his arsenal this season, and it may already be his best pitch
It currently leads all pitches with a 57.7 O-Swing% (min. 25 O-Zone Pitches) and has a great 0.118 xwOBA and 33.3 Whiff%
Here are all 15 O-Zone Swings he has induced: pic.twitter.com/t7ej8DR4vS
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) April 14, 2024
Since his new mix shows improved results, I have upgraded Wheeler relative to his projections (projected FIP range of 3.21 to 3.40).
I view Wheeler as a significantly better pitcher than Patrick Sandoval (projected FIP range of 3.98 to 4.19), who has underperformed this season (6.33 ERA, 4.20 xERA, 4.10 xFIP).
Sandoval has permitted a .390 BABIP (.303 career) and stranded just 56.3% of baserunners (70.1%), both of which should regress toward league average (.288 and 71.5%, respectively).
With Mike Trout on the injured list, I projected Wheeler and the Phillies as -199 F5 favorites and -189 for the full game. The Angels' bullpen should also be thin, with closer Carlos Estevez pitching consecutive saves (and blowing a save on Tuesday) and Matt Moore working three straight days.
Bet: Phillies F5 Moneyline (-181 or better) | Phillies Full-Game Moneyline (-175 or better)
Cubs vs. Mets
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +138 | 7.5 -112o / -108u | -118 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -166 | 7.5 -112o / -108u | +100 |
Shota Imanaga vs. Jose Butto
Shota Imanaga has been a revelation (0.98 ERA, 3.00 xERA, 3.28 xFIP, 23.1% K-BB%) through five starts — though he's carrying a high strand rate (88.5%) and a low BABIP (of .227), explaining the difference between his ERA and underlying indicators.
Still, Imanaga has a great splitter and an underrated fastball, and he should continue to baffle offenses with his attack angle the first time he sees these Mets hitters.
Additionally, Imanaga could eventually succumb to the long ball on windy days at Wrigley Field (47.4% fly- ball rate) as he's mostly pitched in pitcher-friendly weather to this point.
For the season, I like Imanaga toward the more optimistic end of his projection range (projected FIP of 3.32 to 4.30, with an average of 3.75).
I'm not nearly as high on Jose Butto (projected FIP range of 4.58 to 4.70) as other analysts. Butto has been fortunate (.208 BABIP, 82.6% strand rate) to carry a 2.86 ERA this season as he owns a 10.6% K-BB% through 14 career outings.
Pitch modeling metrics are even more pessimistic, showing bad stuff (87 stuff+, zero above-average offerings) and poor command (90 Location+).
I set Imanaga and the Cubs as nearly a 60% or -150 F5 favorite.
Bet: Cubs F5 Moneyline (-137 or better)
Nationals vs. Rangers
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 9 -106o / -114u | +142 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 9 -106o / -114u | -168 |
Trevor Williams vs. Andrew Heaney
Trevor Williams is having a career-best season (2.70 ERA, 3.00 xERA, 4.10 xFIP) despite a below average K-BB percentage of 10.9%, and pitch modeling metrics (80 Stuff+, 103 Location+, 93 Pitching+) in line with last season (81 Stuff+, 104 Location+, 96 Pitching+).
Williams has deployed his slider and sweeper 31.7% of the time —a significant increase over his career average (18.7%) — but his swinging strike rate has held steady as last season (7.9%), and batters are chasing pitches at the same rate they previously have (31.7%, 31.6% career).
While dialing back his fastball usage and increasing his rate of secondary pitches is likely an optimal approach when throwing 89 mph, there's no justification for upgrading Williams (projected FIP range of 4.8 to 5.08) based upon the underlying data despite an encouraging April.
That said, I upgraded Williams slightly, bringing his projection in line with Andrew Heaney (projected FIP range of 4.18 to 4.77), yet I still show value for the Rangers.
Over the past two seasons with Texas, Heaney has regressed toward a back-end arm, with his velocity declining from 93 mph in 2022 to 92.5 mph last season and 91 mph in 2024. His Stuff+ ratings and K-BB% numbers have similarly declined over that span, and given those trends, I view Heaney toward the lower end of his projection range.
That said, this number is still too low. In a matchup between these teams with Texas at home and two similarly rated starting pitchers on the mound, I make the Rangers at least -172 favorites to slug their way to victory.
Bet: Rangers F5 Moneyline (-168 or better) | Rangers Full-Game Moneyline (-160 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Wednesday, May 1
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- Atlanta Braves F5 (-160, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -175)
- Boston Red Sox (-110, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -111)
- Boston Red Sox F5 (-120, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -120)
- Chicago Cubs F5 (-120, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -137)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-125, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -130)
- Philadelphia Phillies F5 (-165, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -181)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-170, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to -175)
- Tampa Bay Rays / Milwaukee Brewers, Under 8.5 (-113, 0.5u) at Parx (bet to 8, -106)
- Texas Rangers F5 (-158, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -168)
- Texas Rangers (-148, 0.5u) at Parx (bet to -160)
