Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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Here are my MLB predictions and playoff picks for the Wild Card Series Game 2s on Wednesday, October 2.
MLB Predictions Wednesday, Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today, October 2
Wild Card Series Moneyline Corner
The odds for any current series favorite to win 2-0 or by -1.5 games should align with their Game 2 moneyline odds (or, in my case, my projected moneyline). Furthermore, the odds for any underdog to win their series 2-1 should align with the current series price. I regularly see instances where one line is 10 cents off relative to the other market as books adjust the series line but not the result props; check both markets.
I don't project value compared to the updated series price in either AL wild-card matchup, and I don't expect either line to come into range.
Houston reopened around +145 to +150 consensus, while Baltimore moved to +180 after its Game 1 losses; both lines were just south of my updated projections (+163 and +187, respectively). I'd need at least +178 (36% implied) to bet Houston and +205 (38.7% implied) to back Baltimore on its series lines before Game 2.
Depending upon the book, I project value on the Brewers to rally against the Mets. Not at their consensus odds (+230) but certainly at the high point (+260 at Fanduel), and I would set a price target of +257 (28% implied) compared to my projected line (+233 or 30% implied).
If you didn't invest in Milwaukee's series price before Game 1, consider firing now at plus money — or just bet into their Game 2 line, where I also project an edge (and discuss in further detail below).
FanGraphs reopened the Padres at -390 (79.6% implied) after their Game 1 win, and with Chris Sale left off the Braves' postseason roster. That's just out of range from my price target (-362, 78.4% implied), but Game 2 is also more of a tossup, whereas I'd make the Padres more significant favorites (early projection -133) in a potential Game 3.
Tigers vs. Astros
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -142 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +142 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -170 |
Tyler Holton vs. Hunter Brown
Incredibly, Hunter Brown finished with a sub 3.50 ERA after going 0-4 with a 7.79 ERA through the first six weeks of the season due to a trio of blowups (20 runs allowed across three awful starts) in his first seven outings.
Brown pitched to a 2.48 ERA (3.32 xFIP, 18.2% K-BB%) in 23 starts the remainder of the way (which included a seven-run blowup in August). Aside from the rare clunker, Brown has pitched like an ace (3.27 xERA, 3.47 xFIP, 16.7% K-BB%, 103 Stuff+, 101 Pitching+ 4.21 botERA).
His strikeout and walk numbers aren't overly impressive (67th and 44th percentiles), but Brown misses barrels (93rd percentile) and generates weak contact (95th percentile average exit velocity, 97th for hard-hit rate).
Brown owns a big fastball (110 Stuff+) and can spin breaking balls (127 Stuff+ Knucklecurve, 110 Slider). I still believe there's another performance tier he can reach — with a more refined pitch mix — and I view him as a long-shot Cy Young candidate for 2025.
Detroit plans to throw "chaos" at the Astros for the remainder of this series.
That plan will start with southpaw reliever Tyler Holton, who will look to retire both Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker before giving way to either righty Reese Olson (3.51 xERA, 3.72 xFIP, 14.6% K-BB%, 97 Pitching+, 5.01 botERA) or lefty Brant Hurter (2.26 xERA, 3.32 xFIP, 18.3% K-BB%, 95 Pitching+, 3.42 botERA) for bulk innings.
Manager A.J. Hinch will continue to deploy his bullpen aggressively in a short series, as he has for nearly the entire second half of the season.
Hinch also has a new weapon: top MLB pitching prospect Jackson Jobe (No. 6 overall), who pitched to a 1.95 ERA in 16 Double-A starts this year.
The 22-year-old has flashed a 125 Stuff+ rating in a limited sample, with four potential plus offerings (127 Fastball, 125 Cutter, 124 Slider, 120 Changeup). Jobe could eventually help to form a dynamic duo atop the Tigers' rotation alongside Tarik Skubal.
I set Wednesday's total at 7.01 runs and would bet Under 7.5 to -110.
Bets: Under 7.5 (-110 or better)
Royals vs. Orioles
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +124 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +142 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -148 |
Seth Lugo vs. Zach Eflin
As I had anticipated before Game 1, I ultimately showed value on the Orioles' opening line for Game 2. I project Baltimore closer to -160 in either half of this contest and would bet the Orioles' F5 or first-five innings moneyline to -150 and their full game line to -145.
While it's slight, I project a more significant advantage for Zach Eflin (3.62 xERA, 3.81 xFIP, 16.1% K-BB%, 103 Pitching+, 3.60 botERA) against Seth Lugo (3.72 xERA, 15.9% K-BB%, 100 Pitching+, 4.29 botERA) — about two-tenths of a run on a season-long ERA projection — than I do between Corbin Burnes and Cole Ragans (closer to one-tenth of a run).
Additionally, while they had comparable season-long splits against either-handedness of pitchers (115 wRC+ against both types), my model prefers Baltimore's offense against right-handed pitching (projected 119 wRC+) compared to lefties (projected 109 wrC+).
Kansas City did include Vinnie Pasquantino on its postseason roster, lowering my anticipated projection on this game from north of 62% pre-series to 60.9% after announcing its playoff roster. However, I still show an edge on Baltimore and hope it snaps its nine-game postseason losing streak as an organization.
Umpire Ben May is slightly pitcher-leaning, but I don't show value concerning the total (projected 7.33); I'd need 8 (-115) or better to play the Under.
Bets: Orioles F5 Moneyline (-150 or better) | Orioles Full-Game Moneyine (-145 or better)
Mets vs. Brewers
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -110 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -110 |
Sean Manaea vs. Frankie Montas
The Brewers used Aaron Civale in long relief in Game 2, preferring Frankie Montas (4.71 xERA, 12.5% K-BB%, 99 Stuff+, 4.23 botERA) as their Game 2 starter, and leaving Tobias Myers set for bulk work in a potential Game 3.
Montas' underlying metrics improved significantly in two months with the Brewers (3.56 xFIP, 18.4% K-BB%) compared to the first half with Cincinnati (4.69 xFIP, 9% K-BB%).
Montas missed all of 2023 with a shoulder injury, and his velocity increased by a tick between the first and second halves of the 2024 season — slowly getting back to pre-injury levels. It stands to reason that he's just gotten healthier and shaken off the rust with additional time since his surgery.
Still, the Brewers have also modified his pitch mix, encouraging Montas to throw more sinkers and cutters in exchange for fewer splitters and sliders.
Sean Manaea (3.75 xERA, 16.4% K-BB%, 96 Pitching+, 4.45 botERA) has also had a breakout second-half (3.75 xERA, 19.2% K-BB%; 4.29 and 14% first half).
Manaea made a subtle change to his delivery in late July. He also started using his sinker much more aggressively (38.1% before, 55.4% since) while simultaneously ditching his cutter (11% before, 1% since), and his xERA has dropped from 4.30 through July 24 to 3.40 across his past 12 appearances.
The Mets did well to rest their critical relievers on Tuesday after Monday's doubleheader. However, I still give Milwaukee the bullpen advantage (5th in second-half xFIP, 6th in K-BB%, 3rd in Pitching+, 4th in botERA) and expect them to be highly aggressive with pitcher deployment behind Montas.
To reiterate my point from Monday, Milwaukee is the best defensive and baserunning team in the playoff field (3rd in DRS, 3rd in OAA, 1st in BsR).
I initially projected a Civale-led Brewers team with a potential 1-0 series lead as -115 favorites against Manaea and the Mets. With Milwaukee pivoting to Montas and its bullpen with the season on the line, I expect a more concerted run-prevention effort on Tuesday and moved the moneyline projection to -124. Bet the Brewers up to -115.
I would have leaned Under with a more neutral umpire, but Game 2 plate boss Chris Segal is very hitter-friendly (including a career 141-120-10 record to the Over), and I ultimately projected the total at 7.56 runs.
Bets: Brewers Full-Game Moneyline (-115 or better)
Braves vs. Padres
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 7 -105o / -115u | +100 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 7 -105o / -115u | -120 |
Max Fried vs. Joe Musgrove
The Braves lost Game 1 but rested their high-leverage relievers to use behind Max Fried (3.64 xERA, 3.35 xFIP, 17.1% K-BB%, 99 Pitching+, 3.85 botERA) in Game 2.
I'm relatively surprised to see the Padres deploy Joe Musgrove (4.34, 19% K-BB%, 102 Pitching+, 3.97 botERA) ahead of Dylan Cease (3.32 xERA, 20.9% K-BB%, 107 Pitching+, 3.35 botERA). I'd rate Cease as their best starting pitcher — ahead of Michael King.
Musgrove was highly effective down the stretch after a nearly two-month IL stint to fix a bone spur in his elbow.
Before the IL stint, Musgrove posted a 5.66 ERA, 4.31 xFIP, and 13.6% K-BB%, with an average fastball velocity of 92.4 mph, a 116 Stuff+ figure, 101 Pitching+ rating and a 4.08 botERA.
After addressing the elbow issue, Musgrove posted a 2.15 ERA, 3.18 xFIP and 25% K-BB% across 50 innings in August and September. And he averaged 93.6 mph on his fastball — his highest sustained level since 2021 — alongside a 134 Stuff+ figure, 103 Pitching+ rating and a 3.84 botERA.
Fried also missed time in July of this season with forearm neuritis, which is a significant concern for potential suitors courting the pending free agent. Still, he has also been better after the IL stint (3.14 xERA, 17.6% K-BB%, 3.70 botERA) than before (3.44, 13.8%, 4.00 botERA) and forces the Padres into their lesser split (121 wRC+, 4th vs. righties and 89 wRC+, 18th vs. lefties after the trade deadline).
This matchup remains a battle between my top two model projected bullpens — they ranked first and second in second-half xFIP and K-BB%. San Diego also posted the highest Stuff+ rating (122), Pitching+ rating (106) and the lowest botERA (3.39) among all bullpens in the second half — and they have every arm at their disposal for Tuesday.
Pitching models aren't quite as high on Braves relievers (8th in Stuff+, 12th in Pitching+, 13th in botERA), but the results speak for themselves.
I projected this total at 6.15 runs and would bet Under 7 to -119 or Under 6.5 at even money.
I reduced my projection in part due to pitcher-friendly umpire Phil Cuzzi, the second-most profitable Under umpire in the Action Labs database (310-248-26, 55.5%, +$5,671 for a consistent $100 bettor, 7.1% ROI) since 2005.
Bets: Under 7 (-119 or 6.5, +100 or better)
Zerillo's MLB Predictions & Picks for Wednesday, October 2
- Atlanta Braves / San Diego Padres, Under 7 (-108, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -119 or 6.5, +100)
- Baltimore Orioles F5 (-140, 0.25u) at BetMGM (small to -150)
- Baltimore Orioles (-140, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -145)
- Detroit Tigers / Houston Astros, Under 7.5 (+100, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -110)
- Milwaukee Brewers (-108, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -115)
