Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Wednesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and expert picks and previews for the ALDS and NLDS games on Wednesday, October 9.
MLB Predictions Wednesday, Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today, October 9
MLB Futures Update and Divisional Series Prices
I project slight value on Kansas City to win its series 3-2 in the correct score market (projected +393, listed +400 at Caesars and DraftKings).
Alternatively, you can bet them in the series outcome (DraftKings) or exact order (FanDuel) markets to win in Games 3 and 5: G1 NYY / G2 KCR / G3 KCR / G4 NYY / G5 KCR (+750 at DraftKings).
While the Games 4 and 5 outcome prop offers better odds (+850), I also project Kansas City as a more undersized underdog against Clarke Schmidt in Game 3 than against Gerrit Cole in Game 4.
I'd want +313 (24.2% implied) or better to back the Dodgerson the series line before Game 4 (projected 26.2%, +282 implied).
Guardians vs Tigers
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 7 -115o / -105u | -110 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 7 -115o / -105u | -110 |
RHP Alex Cobb (CLE) vs TBD (DET)
Detroit will host its first playoff game since 2014 and has a chance to win its first playoff series since 2013 if it can sweep the Guardians at home on Wednesday and Thursday or split those games and take Game 5 in Cleveland behind Tarik Skubal.
The Tigers will throw "chaos" at the Guardians over the next two days. Their best pitching plan for Game 3 is to likely stack righties Brenan Hanifee (2.99 xERA, 14.2% K-BB%, 100 Pitching+ 4.57 botERA), Keider Montero (5.10 xERA, 11.2% K-BB%, 100 Pitching+, 4.15 botERA) and Beau Brieske (3.29 xERA, 13.8% K-BB%, 102 Pitching+, 102 botERA) with lefty Brant Hurter (2.26 xERA, 18.3% K-BB%, 95 Pitching+, 3.42 botERA) for multiple-inning stints each ahead of Will Vest (3.80 xERA, 15.6% K-BB%, 103 Pitching+, 3.84 botERA) and Jason Foley (3.80 xERA, 15.6% K-BB%, 103 Pitching+, 3.84 botERA) if they have a late lead.
Detroit may prefer its right-handed pitchers instead of Hurter, as Cleveland posted a 95 wRC+ vs. righties compared to 113 wRC+ against lefties this season.
The Guardians will counter with Alex Cobb, who posted impressive pitch modeling metrics (107 Pitching+, 3.76 botERA) in a small 16-inning sample following hip surgery last winter and shoulder issues this summer.
Models love his splitter (123 Stuff+ and knuckle curve (130 Stuff+), and the Tigers rated as a below-average offense against right-handed pitching, even in their dominant second half.
The Guardians can afford to be as aggressive with their bullpen as the Tigers.
However, Cobb should pitch into the fourth inning of this contest (11.5 outs recorded juiced -125 to the Over). After that point, I rate Cleveland's bullpen (2nd in xFIP, 2nd in K-BB%, 11th in Pitching+, 16th in botERA) as the better of the two relief units (Detroit ranks 16th, 17th, 19th and 24th on the season by the same metrics).
This series is highly reminiscent of the Guardians-Rays Wild Card Series from 2022 when those teams scored four runs combined across 24 innings. Both clubs generally struggle to score but are also facing a diverse array of quality relief pitching while rarely getting a second or third look at the same arm.
I don't project value on either side of the moneyline, but I set the total at 6.5 runs — bet Under 7 to -112.
Pick: Under 7 (-112 or better)
Phillies vs Mets
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -120 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +100 |
LHP Ranger Suarez (PHI) vs LHP Jose Quintana (NYM)
It's difficult to imagine Phillies manager Rob Thomson giving Ranger Suarez a long leash in Game 4 with the Phillies playing for their season and Zack Wheeler set to go in Game 5 after an off-day to rest their bullpen.
Suarez was a Cy Young Award candidate over the first half of the season (2.87 ERA, 3.10 xFIP, 18.5% K-BB%, 101 Pitching+, 3.81 botERA) but struggled over his final seven starts (5.74 ERA, 3.86 xFIP, 10.3% K-BB%, 97 Pitching+, 4.33 botERA) after an IL stint for lower back soreness.
Suarez's fastball velocity has dipped by one tick since the injury, continuing a multiyear trend. Still, he is now, concerningly, at the lowest velocity level of his career:
The Mets faced Suarez thrice this season, and their current hitters have a career .692 OPS against him across 159 plate appearances — albeit with a solid 10% walk rate and 8.2% K-BB%.
The Mets are righty heavy, especially when J.D. Martinez starts over Jesse Winker against southpaw pitching. Brandon Nimmo (career 3-for-25, 3 BB, 4 K) should face Suarez twice, but the Phillies' starter might then come out for a right-handed reliever before facing Pete Alonso (2-for-17 with two doubles and eight walks) and Jose Iglesias (6-for-8 career) for a second time.
If Suarez is rolling and the Phillies have built up a lead, Thomson may let him go deeper. Still, I'd anticipate a quick hook in any close contest and project Suarez to face about 12 hitters. I like the unders for Suarez's strikeouts (3.5, -115 at Caesars) and outs recorded (12.5, +100 at DraftKings) props.
Notably, Orion Kerkerking has pitched in all three games in this series and will likely be deployed again in Game 4.
The Mets got to rest their bullpen behind Sean Manaea in Game 3. They could take a similarly aggressive bullpen approach as the Phillies behind Jose Quintana (3.75 ERA, 4.49 xERA, 10.0% K-BB%, 93 Pitching+, 5.20 botERA) in Game 4.
While Quintana benefitted from an underrated defense behind him, he pitched to a career-best .263 BABIP (.303 career) and a 78.2% strand rate (73.6% career) in his age-35 season. Quintana is a former All-Star, and his 2024 ERA matches his career mark (3.74), but the underlying indicators suggest he's a long way from his peak.
The Mets should have David Peterson (career 2.88 xFIP vs. lefties, 4.20 vs. righties) available in relief behind Quintana (career 3.43 xFIP vs. lefties, 4.08 vs. righties). They will look to match up those lefties against Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper.
Quintana might face both hitters a third time if he's pitching well (equaling 21 batters faced), and I'd pass on his usage props despite generally leaning under in elimination games.
Even facing strictly left-handed pitching, I still like Schwarber or Harper to walk at -110 or better. The Mets are continuing to handle both with caution.
I project the total for Game 4 at 7.05 runs and would bet Under 7.5 to -108.
I also project the Mets as slight favorites (-108 implied) and would bet their moneyline at any plus money price.
Considering I have a series ticket on the Mets (+165 before Game 1) — which will be a better price than their moneyline in either Game 4 or Game 5 — I'll keep my wager small.
If you didn't bet on the Mets' series ticket, size your moneyline bet as you normally would at even money or better.
Picks: Mets ML (+100 or better) | Under 7.5 (-108 or better)
Yankees vs Royals
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +143 | 8 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8 -110o / -110u | +100 |
RHP Clarke Schmidt (NYY) vs RHP Seth Lugo (KC)
The Yankees picked Clarke Schmidt (3.75 xERA, 17.8% K-BB%, 100 Pitching+, 3.93 botERA) to start Game 3 ahead of potential AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil (3.83 xERA, 14.8% K-BB%, 100 Pitching+, 4.24 botERA), who could be available in a multi-inning relief stint with Gerrit Cole set to face Michael Wacha in Game 4.
The Royals will turn to Seth Lugo (3.72 xERA, 15.9% K-BB%, 100 Pitching+, 4.29 botERA), whose low ERA (3.00) may lead to a top-three Cy Young finish behind Skubal and Emmanuel Clase.
Both teams are in their superior split against a right-handed starter. New York led MLB with a 120 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, while Kansas City ranked near league average (99 wRC+, 16h).
The two clubs fall to 10th (107 wRC+) and 26th (84) against lefties. The Royals hit much better at home (100 wRC+, 7.8% BB%, 17.9% K%) than on the road (92 wRC+, 6.6% BB%, 20.9% K%).
The Yankees (11th in second-half xFIP, 10th in K-BB%, 13th in Pitching+, 15th in botERA) have a slight bullpen advantage over the Royals (14th, 10th, 20th and 12th by the same indicators), but both rated closer to league average and project as the two worst relief units remaining in the 2024 playoffs.
I set the Game 3 total at 8.40 runs — bet Over 8 to -108.
Pick: Over 8 (-108 or better)
Dodgers vs Padres
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8 -110o / -110u | +122 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +143 | 8 -110o / -110u | -145 |
TBD (LAD) vs. RHP Dylan Cease (SDP)
Landon Knack (3.78 xERA, 17.8% K-BB%, 99 Pitching+, 4.60 botERA), who only pitched 69 MLB innings this season, figures to work in a bulk role for the Dodgers in Game 4. I doubt they use Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who missed three months with a shoulder injury, on short rest, leaving Yamamoto and Jack Flaherty both available on complete rest for a possible Game 5.
With Joe Musgrove's season-ending injury, the Padres have debated between using Dylan Cease (3.32 xERA, 20.9% K-BB%, 107 Pitching+, 3.35 botERA) on short rest after 80 pitches in Game 1 — leaving Yu Darvish for a potential Game 5 — or Martin Perez, (5.38 xERA, 9.8% K-BB%, 95 Pitching+, 4.94 botERA) who would have an incredibly short leash in front of the Padres' elite bullpen, and might only start to face the Dodgers' lefties once before exiting.
Editor's note: The Padres announced that Dylan Cease will start Game 4, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.
The Padres will aggressively press their bullpen advantage (2nd in xFIP and K-BB%, and 1st by both Pitching+ and botERA in the second half) over the Dodgers (19th, 18th, 17th and 16th by the same four metrics) once again in an elimination game, especially with an off-day on Thursday to rest their relievers before a possible Game 5.
Given both sides' heavy anticipated bullpen usage, I projected Tuesday's total at 7.42 runs and would bet the under to 8 (-112).
The Dodgers' moneyline is closer to the actionable side. I'd want +135 or better to back Los Angeles to knot the series at two.
Pick: Under 8 (-112 or better)
Zerillo's MLB Predictions & Picks for Wednesday, October 9
- Cleveland Guardians / Detroit Tigers, Under 7 (-102, 0.75u) at FanDuel (bet to -112)
- Los Angeles Dodgers / San Diego Padres, Under 8.5 (-110, 0.75u) at FanDuel (bet to 8, -112)
- New York Mets (+100, 0.25u) at FanDuel (small to +100)
- New York Yankees / Kansas City Royals, Over 7.5 (-115, 0.75u) at Caesars (bet to 8, -108)
