Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday, September 11.
MLB Predictions & Expert Picks for Wednesday, September 11
Sean Zerillo's MLB Mets vs Blue Jays Best Bet
Sean Manaea (NYM) vs. Bowden Francis (TOR)
I highlighted the two primary differences between these clubs in Tuesday's edition of Opening Pitch: New York has the better bullpen (7th in xFIP, 7th in K-BB%, 24th in botERA in the second half) than Toronto (25th, 30th, and 27th, respectively). However, the Blue Jays have the better offense of late, ranking 5th with a 112 wRC+ since the All-Star break, compared to the 12th-place Mets (106 wRC+).
Both starting pitchers have been on a tear in the second half.
Bowden Francis (1.96 ERA, 3.37 xFIP, 25.6% K-BB% in the second half) has made a notable adjustment over his past six starts, putting away his curveball (6.4% usage, 27.8% through July) in favor of his splitter (28% usage, 13% through July) and slider (doubled from 6% to 12%).
Both the curveball and splitter rate well in Stuff+ models (Splitter 106, Curve 102), but the splitter has been dominant (.174 xBA, .241 xSLG, .189 xwOBA) while the curveball has gotten crushed (.273 xBA, .400 xSLG, .334 xwOBA).
Francis's Stuff+ figure has decreased (from 101 to 94) without throwing the curve as frequently, but he has better command over his new mix, posting a 105 Location+ and 3.50 botERA since August compared to marks of 99 and 3.90 over the season's first four months.
Sean Manaea has been similarly dominant (2.81 ERA, 3.18 xFIP, 26.2% K-BB%) in eight starts since July 30. His start before that (July 25) was against Chris Sale and the Braves, and Manaea subsequently tweaked his delivery, dropping his release point to look more like Sale's.
Not all pitchers can match Sale's size (6'6, 180 lbs.), but Manaea (6'5, 245 lbs.) — who used to be known as a "baby giraffe" — has always had a similarly lanky build. Moreover, Manaea has consolidated his pitch mix recently, favoring his sweeper, sinker, and changeup (with a new grip) over his slider and cutter.
Despite those changes, pitching models (94 Stuff+, 101 Location+, 99 Pitching+, 4.11 botERA) now view Manaea as closer to a league-average arm, an improvement in Manaea's profile relative to his prior form (86 Stuff+, 96 Location+, 96 Pitching+, 4.74 botERA), but far from his ace level results from the past six weeks.
Still, with both starting pitchers potentially in career-best form, I projected this total at 7.65 runs.
Bets: Blue Jays Full-Game Moneyline (+102 or better) | Under 8.5 (8, -108 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Royals vs Yankees Prediction
Cole Ragans (KCR) vs. Luis Gil (NYY)
Luis Gil returned triumphantly from an IL stint for a back strain, posting his third-highest game score of the season against the Cubs (6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 7 K).
Gil will pitch himself into and out of trouble, with spotty command (94 Location+) and the highest walk rate (12,5%) among qualified pitchers. Still, he has elite stuff (110) and generates tons of strikeouts (27.7%, 83rd percentile) and weak contact (.200 xBA, 93rd percentile).
Gil struggles when opponents force him to work, but I'd be more concerned about a road matchup with the Royals, who don't strike out at Kauffman Stadium (17.3%, 1st in MLB). However, the Royals rank 5th in strikeout rate (20.2%) and 29th in walk rate (6.2%) on the road, and their lack of plate discipline should be their undoing against a pitcher like Gil – who excels when he gets opponents to chase (25.7% chase rate, 21st percentile).
I do project Cole Ragans (3.31 xERA, 21.3% K-BB%, 109 Stuff+, 104 Pitching+, 3.57 botERA) as the better pitcher than Gil (3.54 xERA, 15.2% K-BB%, 110 Stuff+, 100 Pitching+). The southpaw puts the Yankees in their lesser split (123 wRC+, 1st vs. righties; 105 wRC+, 13th vs. lefties).
Still, I projected the Yankees as -153 F5 or first five innings favorites for Wednesday.
Bets: Yankees F5 Moneyline (-140 or better)
Sean Zerillo's Orioles vs Red Sox MLB Prediction & Pick
Dean Kremer (BAL) vs. Nick Pivetta (BOS)
Like Tuesday's matchup, Boston should have a clear starting pitching advantage for Wednesday with Nick Pivetta (3.77 xERA, 3.53 xFIP, 22.9% K-BB%, 134 Stuff+, 108 Pitching+, 3.21 botERA) facing Dean Kremer (4.71 xERA, 4.46 xFIP, 12.3% K-BB%, 87 Stuff+, 98 Pitching+, 4.58 botERA)
Pivetta owns the highest Stuff+ rating among qualified starting pitchers, while Kremer projects as a replacement-level starting pitcher.
The projection gap between the pair (projected FIP range of 3.98 to 4.27 for Pivetta and 4.11 to 4.65 for Kremer) isn't as comprehensive as their underlying indicators would suggest. Moreover, Kremer has outperformed his indicators (career 4.33 ERA, 4.57 xFIP, 4.50 FIP, 4.58 botERA), while Pivetta has underperformed (4.80 ERA, 3.98 xFIP, 4.37 FIP, 3.21 botERA) throughout his career.
Boston has had the better offense both in the second half (112 vs. 111 wrC+) and since the trade deadline (100 vs. 99). Although the Orioles have overtaken the Red Sox in offensive splits if you filter by the last 14 and 30-day samples, I still project the latter to have an offensive edge (116 vs. 112 wRC+ against right-handed pitching) and make Boston around -145 (59.2% implied) on the F5 moneyline.
Bets: Red Sox F5 Moneyline (-135 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, September 11
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- Atlanta Braves / Washington Nationals, Over 7.5 (-115, Risk 0.5u; flat to 8, -108)
- Boston Red Sox F5 (-124, Risk 0.5u) at BallyBet (flat to -135)
- Cleveland Guardians / Chicago White Sox, Over 8 (-108, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (small to -105)
- Cleveland Guardians / Chicago White Sox, Under (-114, Risk 0.25u) at BallyBet (took a small piece off of the Over 8)
- Miami Marlins / Pittsburgh Pirates, Under 9 (-110, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars (flat to 8.5, -105)
- Milwaukee Brewers / San Francisco Giants, Over 7 (-108, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to
- New York Mets / Toronto Blue Jays, Under 8.5 (-118, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to 8, -108)
- New York Yankees F5 (-134, Risk 0.5u) at BallyBet (flat to -140)
- Oakland Athletics (+205, 0.25u) at BallyBet (small to +195)
- Tampa Bay Rays (+195, 0.25u) at BetMGM (small to +189)
- Texas Rangers F5 (+125, 0.25u; small to +118)
- Texas Rangers (+131, 0.5u; bet to +122)
- Toronto Blue Jays (+108, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to +102)
