Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Wednesday, September 18.
MLB Predictions & Expert Picks, Previews for Wednesday, Sept. 18
Sean Zerillo's MLB Athletics vs Cubs Best Bets
Brady Basso (OAK) vs. Justin Steele (CHC)
We cashed the Under on Tuesday in Chicago, and I show value on the same wager for Wednesday's matchup, which triggered the Action Labs Pro system for Wrigley Field Unders for the second consecutive day:
Justin Steele (3.09 ERA, 2.78 xERA, 18.4% K-BB%, 102 Pitching+, 2.85 botERA) remains the most underrated ace in MLB since he doesn't produce elite strikeout totals (66th percentile). Instead, Steele avoids barrels (4.2%, 95th percentile), generates weak contact (89th percentile in hard-hit rate, 87th percentile in average exit velocity), and keeps the ball in the yard (0.77 HR/9) despite a mediocre groundball rate.
A's rookie southpaw Brady Basso (3.07 xERA, 16.4% K-BB%, 102 Pitching+, 3.71 botERA) similarly offers excellent command (3.6% walk rate; 6.5% in the minors) and generates weak contact, but he has a more diverse arsenal than Steele (four-seamer, curveball, cutter, changeup, sinker).
Pitching models like Basso's cutter (103 Stuff+, 17.2% usage rate) and his command (108 Location+), but dislike the remainder of his pitch mix. However, Basso's offerings have each produced a .311 xwOBA or below in a relatively limited sample.
I projected Wednesday's total at 7.14 runs — compared to 7.92 on a weather-neutral day on the north side of Chicago — with eight mph winds blowing in from right-center field and relatively low humidity for September,
Bets: Under 8 (7.5 -105 or better)
Sean Zerillo's Giants vs Orioles MLB Best Bets
Hayden Birdsong (SFG) vs. Dean Kremer (BAL)
Stuff+ figures can be a quick guide to point to a pitcher's potential upside, and Hayden Birdsong has posted explosive numbers (111 Stuff+) in the majors alongside high strikeout rates (34.4% in the minors, 27.2% in MLB) throughout his career.
Birdsong has shown extremely shaky command (91 Location+, 10.1% walk rate in the minors, 14.4% in MLB) but is coming off his best outing of the season against the Brewers (5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4) alongside his best pitch modeling metrics: 112 Stuff+, 101 Location+, 107 Pitching+.
Although Birdsong throws a hard fastball (95.8 mph, 78th percentile), the pitching models don't like its shape (86 Stuff+), and the pitch has gotten whomped (.444 xwOBA). However, models do love Birdsong's changeup (155 Stuff+, 18.3% usage), slider (120, 19%), and curveball (115, 19.8%).
Projection systems view Birdsong (projected FIP range of 4.31 to 4.84) as a half tier below Dean Kremer (projected FIP range of 4.06 to 4.67), whose 2024 results (4.48 xERA, 12.6% K-BB%, 98 Pitching+, 4.54 botERA) are those of a No. 4 or No. 5 starter.
I give the Giants a slight bullpen advantage (4th in xFIP, 12th in K-BB%, 15th in Pitching+, 8th in botERA) even though Baltimore (11th, 9th, 10th, and 6th, respectively) owns the better second-half indicators.
Baltimore's offense has slumped in a sub-.500 second half (26-29), including a 96 wRC+ (21st) against righties since the trade deadline. The Giants are built to beat lefties (108 wRC+, 10th since the deadline), not righties (88 wRC+, 26th over the same span), and I'm not high on either team's lineup. Still, the offensive gap between these clubs is likely closer than the season-long metrics might indicate.
Bets: Giants Full-Game Moneyline (+140 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Blue Jays vs Rangers Predictions & Picks
Bowden Francis (TOR) vs. Cody Bradford (TEX)
Both the Blue Jays and Rangers are strong defensive teams with shaky bullpens.
Toronto ranks first in Defensive Runs Saved (93) and fifth by Outs Above Average (+24), while Texas ranks 14th (+23) and second (+33), respectively.
However, since the trade deadline, the Blue Jays rank 27th in bullpen xFIP, 30th in K-BB%, 29th in Pitching+, and 26th in botERA, while the Rangers' relievers rank 28th, 24th, 16th, and 24th in the same four categories.
I like both starting pitchers, having continually backed Bowden Francis over his recent hot streak (48 IP, 1.50 ERA, 3.71 xFIP, 16 H, 8 R, 5 BB, 46 K). Francis made a notable adjustment in early August, putting away his curveball (7% usage, 27.8% through July) in favor of his splitter (25.6% usage, 13% through July) and slider (up from 6% to 12.9%).
Bradford blew up against the Diamondbacks in his last start (3 2/3 IP, 9 H, 8 R, 0 BB, 4 K) but has pitched exceedingly well (3.71 xERA, 19.2% K-BB%, 101 Pitching+, 3.43 botERA) with excellent command (3.8% walk rate, 106 Location+). Bradford only ranks behind 2023 walk-rate leaders George Kirby and Zach Eflin on the 2024 leaderboard.
I projected Wednesday's total at 7.26 runs.
Bets: Under 8 (-118 or 7.5, +100 or better)
Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, September 18
- Kansas City Royals (+132, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to +125)
- Los Angeles Dodgers / Miami Marlins, Under 9 (-114, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to -120 or 8.5, +100)
- Oakland Athletics / Chicago Cubs, Under 8 (-115, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to 7.5, -105)
- San Francisco Giants (+157, 0.5u; bet to +140)
- Toronto Blue Jays / Texas Rangers, Under 8 (-105, 0.5u) at FanDuel (Bet to -118 or 7.5, +100)
