Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday, April 16.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Wednesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Wednesday, April 16
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Braves vs. Blue Jays: How to Bet Strider's Debut
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +143 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -115 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -105 |
Spencer Strider (ATL) vs. Chris Bassitt (TOR)
Spencer Strider will attempt to return from his second UCL injury on Tuesday. He underwent an internal brace procedure on his right elbow last April, a Tommy John alternative which reinforces the existing ligament with synthetic parts, rather than reconstructing the ligament using a tendon graft.
This alternative method can help speed up recovery from UCL injuries by three months or more. Strider had the surgery nearly one year to the day, and he has ramped up slowly over the past month.
Across five starts (14 2/3 innings) between spring training and the minors, Strider has looked phenomenal, recording 31 strikeouts against six hits, five walks, and four runs.
He rung up 13 of the 21 batters he faced (62%) in his final rehab start in Triple-A:
Strider posted dominant numbers across the 2022 (2.39 xERA, 2.30 xFIP, 29.7% K-BB%) and 2023 (3.09 xERA, 2.92 xFIP, 29.2% K-BB%) seasons while primarily using two pitches — he offered his four-seam fastball (career 119 Stuff+) or slider (121) an average of 94% of the time across those two seasons.
He has always been a bit more effective against righties (2.20 xFIP, 33.9% K-BB%) than lefties (3.24 xFIP, 33.5% K-BB%), and his rarely-used changeup (95 Stuff+) grades out as below average.
As a result, Strider kept tinkering to add a pitch to neutralize opposite-handed hitters. He unlocked a curveball last season (114 Stuff+, 12.4% usage rate) that he used confidently both in spring and in his only two regular-season starts before getting injured.
In other words, Strider was one of the best pitchers in baseball two years ago while throwing two pitches — even after hitters had a year to adjust to that strategy — and he added a third elite offering to potentially fix the only weakness in his profile (aside from health).
He projects among the aces (projected FIP range of 2.92 to 3.06) but, if he's both healthy and using the curveball, I think he can replicate his career mark (2.56) and challenge Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, and Garrett Crochet for the "best pitcher in baseball" label — even if Strider only throws 140-150 innings (peak projection of 151), which is likely 20 innings shy of the minimum needed for Cy Young contention.
I projected Wednesday's total at 7.25 runs. Bet Under 8 to -120 — otherwise, take Under 7.5 at plus money down to -102.
Pick: Under 8 (bet to -120) OR Under 7.5 (bet to -102)
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Mariners vs. Reds: Fade M's Away from Seattle?
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8.5 -122o / 102u | -115 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 8.5 -122o / 102u | -105 |
Bryce Miller (SEA) vs. Nick Martinez (CIN)
Nick Martinez was my most oft-bet-on pitcher last season.
He's had an interesting baseball journey — currently in the fourth season of his second stint in MLB, following three seasons in Japan — and he has finally been given the chance to hold a regular rotation spot.
Since Martinez joined the Reds' rotation last August, he has the fourth-lowest walk rate (3.8%) among starting pitchers, with a better K-BB% than George Kirby.
And he's maintained the same underlying command indicators (112 Location+, 113 last season) that led to his breakout (3.16 ERA, 3.71 xFIP, 3.77 SIERA over that span) in 2024.
Martinez mixes six pitches, only throwing his cutter (24%) more than 20% of the time in 2025. The changeup (120 Stuff+) grades out as his best — and only above average offering — but his usage (19%) on the pitch is down compared to both last season (21.6%) and 2023 (28.8%).
Bryce Miller has shown drastic home/road splits early in his career (2.73 ERA, 3.77 xFIP, 20% K-BB% at home vs. 4.60 ERA, 4.49 xFIP, 13.7% K-BB%), which is not something I weigh heavily for most players.
Still, hitters have difficulty seeing the ball at T-Mobile Park, and the Mariners' starters — and their reputation as a unit — may be a touch overrated in road contests.
- Bryan Woo: 3.44 xFIP, 22.8% K-BB% at home; 4.36 xFIP, 13.9% K-BB% on the road
- Logan Gilbert: 3.34 xFIP, 22.5% K-BB% at home and 3.81 xFIP, 17.8% K-BB% on the road
I projected the Reds as -112 favorites in either half of this matchup and would play their moneyline to -103, either for the first five innings (F5) or the full game.
Pick: Reds F5 Moneyline (bet to -103) | Reds Moneyline (bet to -103)
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Diamondbacks vs. Marlins: Meyer Gives Fish Edge
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 9 -105o / -115u | -165 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -125 | 9 -105o / -115u | +140 |
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) vs. Max Meyer (MIA)
Brandon Pfaaft was my most oft-bet pitcher in the first half of last season. He recently signed a five-year, $45 million extension with Arizona, but he's seen a slight reduction in arsenal velocity and his pitch modeling metrics (Stuff+ down from 103 to 93, botERA up from 2.84 to 3.58) and strikeout rate (down from 24% to 17%) are both moving in the wrong direction.
Pfaadt has been highly unlucky early in his MLB career (4.96 ERA, 3.87 xFIP, 4.21 FIP, 3.87 SIERA, with a 4.48 xERA in 2023 and a 3.78 xERA in 2024), driven primarily by a 1.52 HR/9 and 14.2% HR/FB rate — both of which should regress towards league averages of 1.07 and 11.1%.
Still, he's been equally lucky (albeit in a small sample) to maintain a 3.50 ERA through three starts this season, compared to an xERA of 5.88, thanks to a .240 BABIP and an 89.6% strand rate (career averages of .310 and 67.4%; league averages of .289 and 71.9%.).
Max Meyer — the No. 3 overall pick in 2020 — is giving the Marlins another appealing arm to offer a bigger club as trade bait in a few seasons, as they seem likely to deal Sandy Alcantara by July of this year.
Meyer spams his cutter, which is often classified as a slider (89.1 mph, 48% usage rate, 97 Stuff+), but he's also moved away from his four-seamer in exchange for additional sinkers.
The two-seam (106 Stuff+) grades out as a better pitch than his four-seam fastball (87 Stuff+), and I'd like to see Meyer continue to emphasize the cutter/sinker mix while deploying his changeup (101 Stuff+, 14% usage rate) to complement his trio of fastballs.
He has better command than he does stuff (110 Location+), which has improved in his second year following Tommy John surgery. A fully healthy Meyer can out-pitch his rest-of-season FIP projections (projected range of 4.01 to 4.50); his xERA (3.52) and botERA (3.26) more clearly show his upside.
I show value on the Marlins in both halves of this matchup, but project a more significant edge in the F5 market. Also, I would rather not sweat their shaky bullpen against an extremely patient D-Backs lineup (lowest strikeout rate, highest walk rate).
Split the Marlins' F5 moneyline (to +115), with their F5 spread (up to -127).
Pick: Marlins F5 Spread +0.5 (split to -127) | Marlins F5 Monyline (split to +115)
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Red Sox vs. Rays Moneyline Pick
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 9 100o / -120u | +110 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 9 100o / -120u | -130 |
Sean Newcomb (BOS) vs. Zack Littell (TB)
Zack Littell was a serviceable mid-rotation arm last season (4.34 xERA, 4.01 xFIP, 16.8% K-BB%, 100 Pitching+) in his first year as a full-time starter.
Despite permitting 12 runs over his past two starts, underlying indicators, velocity levels, and pitch mix say that he's essentially the same pitcher as last year, aside from exchanging some four-seam fastballs for sinkers.
Littell's projected rest-of-season FIP is between 4.21 and 4.79, with a slightly better average projection but a similar median projection (4.36 vs. 4.46) as Sean Newcomb's (projected range of 4.37 to 4.90), despite vastly different walk rates.
Littell ranked in the 94th percentile in walk rate last season (4.7%) while Newcomb has a career 12.3% walk rate, which is significantly higher than the MLB average (9.2% in 2025).
Still, I make the bullpen battle very comparable.
I prefer to bet on Boston's offense against right-handed pitching (projected 107 wRC+ vs. righties without Alex Bregman) and bet against them with lefties (projected 98 wRC+ vs. lefties without Bregman). Their spark plug, Jarren Duran, may finally be heating up after a slow start:
I don't project value on the Over, however, after betting it the past couple of days.
The wind direction in Tampa is slightly different on Wednesday than it was on Monday or Tuesday, blowing out toward the right-field corner at first pitch before shifting to a cross breeze by the late innings.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (bet to +108)
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Royals vs. Yankees: Buying Bubic
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +102 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +200 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -122 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -245 |
Kris Bubic (KC) vs. Clarke Schmidt (NYY)
Kris Bubic struggled as a starter earlier in his career (5.58 ERA, 5.67 xERA, 8% K-BB% in 2022) but broke out as a reliever last year by scrapping his curveball and incorporating a sweeper. His new mix has worked well through three starts (3.03 xERA, 100 Stuff+, 100 Pitching+, 3.53 botERA) in 2025.
Bubic has always had a good changeup (101 Stuff+) and historically has shown reverse splits (career 4.05 xFIP, 12.9% K-BB% vs. righties and 4.90 xFIP, 7.7% K-BB% vs. lefties).
However, the sweeper helped him neutralize same-sided hitters last year (1.80 xFIP, 31.1% K-BB%) and gives him a solid two-pitch plan of attack against either handedness of hitter.
Bubic's new arsenal has also generated a high ground-ball rate (54.5% since last season) and suppressed homers (0.55 HR/9, 9.1% HR/FB rate), which is vital against a Yankees offense with 32 homers in 17 games (compared to 10 HRs in 18 games for the Royals).
Clarke Schmidt (107 Stuff+, 106 Pitching+) has two elite out-pitches: a slider (117 Stuff+, 25% usage) and knuckle curve (131 Stuff+, 18% usage). His 2025 projections (FIP range of 3.89 to 4.23) align with his 2024 campaign (3.78 xERA, 3.92 xFIP).
Schmidt will debut after experiencing shoulder soreness in spring, but he excelled in two rehab outings (combined 7 1/3 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 11 K) while stretching out to 61 pitches. You can expect closer to 80 pitches from him on Wednesday.
The Yankees have used their two best relievers — Luke Weaver and Devin Williams — on consecutive days and I give the Royals a slight bullpen edge.
Pick: Royals Moneyline (bet to +133) | Under 8.5 (bet to -110)
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Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, April 16
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- Angels/Rangers, Over 9.5 (+100, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -102)
- Braves/Blue Jays, Under 8 (-115, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -120 or 7.5, -102)
- Boston Red Sox (+124, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to +120)
- Cincinnati Reds F5 (+104, 0.25u) at FanDuel (bet to -103)
- Cincinnati Reds (+106, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -103)
- Kansas City Royals (+145, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to +133)
- Miami Marlins F5 Spread +0.5 (-110, 0.25u) at FanDuel (split to -127)
- Miami Marlins F5 (+126, 0.25u) at FanDuel (split to +115)
- Philadelphia Phillies F5 (-140, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -145)
- Rockies/Dodgers, Over 8.5 (+100, 0.5u) at ESPNBet (bet to -110)
- Royals/Yankees, Under 8.5 (-105, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -110)
